To The Moon

My Investing Muse (05May25)

Layoffs, Delinquency & Closure news

• UPS has revealed plans to cut 20,000 jobs across its U.S. network, while Penske Logistics will eliminate over 300 positions in Missouri. US Xpress in Chattanooga, Tennessee, has also announced 56 job cuts. - FreightWaves

• Forever 21 is shuttering all 354 of its leased U.S. stores on May 1, 2025. It has been in the midst of massive liquidation sales across the country; sales of up to 60% off were seen throughout April.

• Mazda will shut down assembly lines for some of its CX-50 production in Canada at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, the first major automaker to halt U.S. production because of the tariffs. - Pedirayudas

• Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-imposed tariffs continue to weigh on freight markets. - FreightWaves

US weekly bankruptcy filings* 4-week average jumped to 7, the most since the 2020 Crisis. Outside of 2020, this is the highest level since the Financial Crisis. *Companies with more than $50 million in liabilities - X user Global Markets Investor

US GDP Growth

The core of last quarter’s decline was the rush to get ahead of Trump’s forthcoming tariffs. That pushed up goods imports by 51% in the first quarter. But, absent that surge in goods, the latest GDP report could have been even uglier. - CNN

Without the 51% surge in imports, the GDP figure would have been worse. This is a concern.

Tariffs

Here is some news about Tariffs:

Calling President Donald Trump’s trade policies “reckless” and “shortsighted,” the West Coast dockworkers union is warning that U.S. tariffs will lead to massive job losses and higher prices for working-class Americans. - FreightWaves

"President Donald Trump’s trade war is making America an unsafe place to invest," per CNN.

ELON MUSK ON TARIFFS: I AM ONE OF MANY ADVISORS TO THE PRESIDENT, I AM NOT THE PRESIDENT. I HAVE SHARED MY OPINION WITH THE PRESIDENT, AND OTHERS HAVE SHARED THEIR OPINIONS. I AM AN ADVOCATE FOR PREDICTABLE TARIFF STRUCTURES, FREE TRADE & LOWER TARIFFS. - X user StockTalk

As U.S. tariffs ripple through global supply chains, major retailers and brands say consumers should brace for price increases. - MensJournal

Airbus Chief Executive Guillaume Faury has set the stage for a tussle with U.S. airline customers, saying the planemaker won't cover the cost of tariffs for imported aircraft. - WSJ

President Donald Trump has asked for more time on the US economy as it contracted for the first time in three years, stoking recession fears. He said the figure was misleading because companies had stockpiled imports ahead of his imposition of tariffs. - BBC

JPMORGAN SEES THE S&P FALLING TO 4,000 IN A WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THANKS TO TARIFFS. That's a 28% DROP from where we are now.

Walmart tells Chinese suppliers to resume shipments amid the US trade war. Many have switched from delivered duty paid (DDP) prices to free on board (FOB) pricing, allowing US importers to handle the new tariff costs. - Business Standard

TRUMP TARIFFS SLAM SOUTH KOREA — FACTORIES HIT 31-MONTH LOW South Korea’s manufacturing sector just faceplanted, with April’s PMI crashing to 47.5—the worst since 2022—as U.S tariffs start wrecking demand. Export orders collapsed, job cuts surged, and businesses are now more pessimistic than at any point since the pandemic (and that's saying something). Semiconductors might be holding up, but autos and manufacturing? Absolutely cooked. Seoul’s trying to bargain its way out before July. Good luck with that. Source: Reuters

U.S. RELUCTANT TO EXEMPT JAPAN FROM 10% RECIPROCAL TARIFF: KYODO - X user investing.com

There are concerns that America is eroding key partnerships like Canada, Mexico, and Europe. Last week, Asian partners like Japan and South Korea were not spared. Japan has suggested using US treasury bonds as a bargaining chip, a non-typical move from them. Will the world become more fragmented?

My final thoughts

Both China and America have (seemingly) made some concessions regarding Tariffs. It is a good step in the right direction. The global economy can be better when the big boys work together. With no official deals done, the market remains on the edge. Any updates can rally or spook the market. With deals to be announced, the market should get some stability that it craves.

I hope that we can obtain some deals soon. It is important that America is able to secure deals with its partners and neighbours.

There are concerns with regards to goods shortages due to the decline in shipments. While some of the bigger corporations have secured some relief, this may not be the case for the smaller retailers. Some local retailers struggle due to their reliance on Chinese producers. Some of them may not survive if this tariff spat drags on.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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