To The Moon

$Uber(UBER)$ is scheduled to announce its Q1 2025 financial results (for the quarter ended 31 March 2025) on Wednesday, 07 May 2025, before the market opens (8:00 a.m. Eastern Time).

Revenue: The consensus estimate for revenue is approximately $11.6 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of about 14.5%.

Gross Bookings: Total Gross Bookings are expected to be around $42.9 billion, up from $37.65 billion in Q1 2024. Mobility bookings are estimated at ~$21.5 billion and Delivery bookings at ~$20.3 billion.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): Analysts expect Uber to report earnings per share of around $0.51. This would be a significant improvement from the loss of $0.32 per share reported in Q1 2024.

Adjusted EBITDA: Expectations are generally aligned with Uber's guidance (see below).

Estimate Revisions: While Q1 EPS estimates have slightly improved over the past 60 days, they saw a minor downward revision in the last 30 days. Full-year 2025 EPS estimates have also seen some downward revisions recently.

Uber Technologies (UBER) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Gain 20.83%

UBER had a positive earnings call on 05 Feb 2025 which saw its share price gained by 20.83% since.

Uber continues to demonstrate strong growth across its key metrics, particularly in gross bookings, membership expansion, and EBITDA growth. However, challenges remain in the areas of AV commercialization, FX headwinds, and insurance costs. Despite these challenges, the company's performance and strategic positioning suggest a positive outlook.

Uber Technologies (UBER) Guidance

During the fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call for Uber Technologies, Inc., CEO Dara Khosrowshahi highlighted the company's strong performance and growth metrics. Gross bookings growth surpassed expectations, with a 21% increase on a constant currency basis, exceeding the mid to high teens CAGR commitment. Adjusted EBITDA grew by 60% year-on-year, surpassing the high thirties to forty percent CAGR guidance. The company also achieved a 106% free cash flow conversion as a percentage of EBITDA, against a target of 90%. Uber's multi-product use reached an all-time high of 37% of consumers, and the Uber One membership program expanded by five million members, reaching a total of 30 million, marking a 60% year-on-year growth.

Looking ahead to Q1 2025, Uber anticipates 17% to 21% growth in gross bookings, despite FX headwinds, and continued profit expansion. The company is also heavily investing in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, aiming to become a key go-to-market partner for AV players, with significant developments expected in cities like Austin and Atlanta.

Gross Bookings: Uber guided for Q1 2025 Gross Bookings between $42.0 billion and $43.5 billion. This implies constant currency growth of 17% to 21% year-over-year, but includes an anticipated negative impact of about 5.5 percentage points due to the strong US dollar.

Adjusted EBITDA: The company projected Q1 Adjusted EBITDA between $1.79 billion and $1.89 billion, representing 30% to 37% year-over-year growth.

Key Factors That Might Influence Uber Technologies (UBER) Q1 2025 Earnings

Segment Growth: Strong growth is expected in Mobility (+16% est.) and Delivery (+18% est.) revenue year-over-year, while Freight revenue growth is expected to be minimal (+0.9% est.) due to ongoing challenges in the freight market.

Uber reported a 21% year-over-year increase in gross bookings for Q4 2024, which exceeded their guidance and marked the fourth time in five quarters that they've achieved this level of growth.

Uber added five million new members to its Uber One program in Q4, bringing the total to 30 million, up nearly 60% year over year.

Adjusted EBITDA grew 60% year over year, surpassing their target of high thirties to forty percent CAGR.

The company achieved an annual free cash flow conversion as a percentage of EBITDA of 106%, exceeding their target of 90 plus percent.

Mobility segment showed impressive growth with a 24% increase in Q4 on a constant currency basis, driven by supply incentives and operational efficiency.

Potential Headwinds: Currency fluctuations (strong dollar) were explicitly mentioned by Uber as a headwind impacting reported growth rates. Broader economic factors like inflation could also play a role.

The company is facing increased FX headwinds, with a 5.5 percentage point impact on Q1 2025 guidance compared to 3 points in Q4 2024.

Despite some easing, Uber's insurance costs remain high, with expectations of high single-digit per trip cost increases in 2025.

Recent Performance: Uber has a strong history of beating EPS estimates (average surprise of 133.5% over the last four quarters, though they missed in Q1 2024). The stock has shown notable resilience and positive year-to-date performance compared to the broader market and competitor Lyft.

Uber acknowledged that while AV technology is advancing, commercialization will take significantly longer than anticipated.

Uber Technologies (UBER) Price Target

Based on 41 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Uber Technologies in the last 3 months. The average price target is $89.01 with a high forecast of $115.00 and a low forecast of $68.00. The average price target represents a 5.61% change from the last price of $84.28.

If we looked at how UBER share price have moved recently, we will discover that there is an expectation of strong growth in its mobility and delivery segment, but the currency fluctuations with strong dollar might impact its growth rates, with the macroeconomic factors like inflation would also derail the share price movement.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Despite some recent downward revisions in yearly forecasts, the overall analyst rating remains largely positive ("Strong Buy" consensus from one source), with price targets suggesting potential upside.

This is also supported by the RSI which have seen momentum building up strongly to go into the overbought region ahead of UBER earnings on 07 May, this indicate that the bulls are in control with investors confidence high on the expectations of strong growth from UBER.

We can see that the bulls are continuing to build daily upside and this could well continue into this week when UBER report its quarterly earnings.

If we looked at UBER short interest, it looks like there is not much investors looking to sell off to take profit and it is on a decline, but we still need to watch out for some of the headwinds that might increase the impact on UBER as well, overall, investors are still confidence of the mobility segment growth.

Summary

Expectations are set for Uber to report significant year-over-year improvement in profitability (EPS) and continued double-digit growth in revenue and gross bookings for Q1 2025, albeit potentially moderated by currency headwinds. The actual results and management's outlook provided on May 7th will be key for investors.

I think we need to watch closely on UBER management guidance for 2025, and also how the recent US dollar fluctuation might have an impact on UBER.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think UBER would be able to ride out the headwinds and continue on its strong growth rate expectations.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.