To The Moon

My Thoughts on Gold's Correlation with the Stock Market

I have been looking into whether gold is still inversely correlated with the stock market, and it seems that relationship has been shifting lately. Historically, gold tends to rise when stocks drop due to its safe-haven status, but in 2025, that pattern feels less predictable. With Trump's tariff policies causing market volatility, there have been times when both gold and stocks moved in unexpected ways, suggesting the old inverse link isn't as strong anymore. It feels more like gold's price is reacting to broader uncertainties than just stock market trends$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$  

Gold

My Take on Trump's Policies and Gold's Upside Potential

I think Trump's erratic policies are definitely pushing gold higher this year. His aggressive trade moves, like the recent tariff hikes, are sparking fears of inflation and economic instability, driving investors toward safe assets like gold. Central banks are also stockpiling it to diversify away from the U.S. dollar, which seems shaky amid these trade wars. That said, I'm a bit cautious—if trade tensions calm down later this year, gold's upward momentum might slow as the market adjusts to the new normal$SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust(GLDM)$  

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My Target Price for Gold in 2025

For my target price, I'm thinking gold could climb to a range of $3,300 to $3,700 by the end of 2025, based on what I've seen from some big-name analysts. They're pointing to strong demand and ongoing uncertainties, with some suggesting $3,500 as a solid midpoint if tensions persist. If trade issues ease, it might dip closer to $3,000, but I'd expect it to hold at least around $3,200 with the current climate.

My Concerns About Economic Stability

I'm a little worried about the broader economic picture. With the Federal Reserve's rate decision looming and Trump's unpredictable approach to trade, it feels like we're on shaky ground. This could keep gold appealing as a hedge, but it also makes me wonder if other markets might suffer, dragging everything down eventually.

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My Advice for Investors

If I were advising someone, I'd say it might be worth keeping an eye on gold, especially with all this uncertainty. I wouldn't rush to buy or sell, though—waiting to see how the Fed's decision and Trump's next moves shake out could give a clearer signal. It's a tricky time, so staying flexible seems smart.

$Barrick Gold Corp(GOLD)$  

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