To The Moon

Volatility & Market Signals

• The VIX Index outperformed its Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 counterparts in capturing market fear during April’s panic, giving a more accurate buy signal.

• At 18.4, the VIX has returned to bull-market territory, reinforcing a more stable investment environment for now.

Markets

Debt Stress is Climbing

• Severely delinquent U.S. credit card debt is back near 20-year highs, highlighting household financial strain despite a healthy labor market.

• Rolling 20-year S&P 500 returns have never been negative, even through wars, inflation, and recessions.

• Market timing is unpredictable, but valuation and long-term discipline matter more than short-term noise.

Disruption & Tech Leadership

• The Nasdaq 100 is up 13.8% since April 10, rebounding from technical extremes.

• US Big Tech is leading again, outpacing both the S&P and Nasdaq from April lows. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

• Positive sentiment is further supported by:

  Google’s new AI investment fund $Alphabet(GOOG)$ .

  $Apple(AAPL)$ ’s AI-powered battery optimization in iOS 19.

  Perplexity’s $14B valuation round $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

  Coinbase joining the S&P 500 (replacing Discover Financial).

Tariff Ceasefire: Short-Term Lift, Long-Term Uncertainty

• The U.S. and China announced a 90-day tariff pause, cutting mutual levies to 10–30% from triple digits.

• Equity markets surged in response:

  Dow +2.8%

  S&P 500 +3.3%.

  $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ +4.3% and now officially in bull market territory.

Trump and Bessent have both left open the possibility of tariffs spiking again post-July. Expect further volatility tied to geopolitical brinkmanship.

Policy & Politics: Shifting Landscape

• Trump’s new drug pricing push aims to peg U.S. prices closer to global norms either voluntarily or via regulation.

• House Republicans’ tax plan would extend 2017 cuts while curbing EV and green energy tax breaks.

• The proposal also increases the state & local tax (SALT) deduction, and removes taxes on tipped income and OT.

Looking Ahead

• Key Earnings: Walmart, Cisco, Applied Materials, Fox

• Key Data:

Tuesday: CPI (first to reflect tariff impact).

Thursday: PPI + Retail Sales

Friday: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment

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This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.