To The Moon

$Medtronic PLC(MDT)$ is scheduled to release its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 on Wednesday, 21 May 2025, before the market opens.

Analysts' consensus EPS forecast for Q4 2025 is $1.58, compared to the $1.46 reported in the same quarter last year.

Medtronic (MDT) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Declined By 6.48%

Medtronic had a positive earnings call on 18 Feb 2025 which saw its share price declined by 6.48% since.

The earnings call was largely positive, highlighting strong revenue growth, advancements in key segments, and successful international expansion. However, some challenges in the surgical portfolio and distributor dynamics were noted.

Medtronic (MDT) Guidance

In the fiscal year 2025 third quarter earnings call, Medtronic reported a consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of such performance. The company highlighted a robust 22% growth in its Cardiac Ablation Solutions and double-digit growth in leadless pacing, neuromodulation, and diabetes segments. Structural heart and U.S. cranial and spinal technologies grew high-single-digits.

Medtronic's EPS increased by high-single-digits, surpassing both consensus and the higher end of their guidance range. Additionally, the company anticipates further revenue and EPS acceleration in the fourth quarter, driven by its innovative pipeline and expansion into high-potential markets. The strategic focus on disciplined pricing, operating leverage, and strong free cash flow is expected to deliver significant shareholder value.

Medtronic (MDT) Key Areas To Monitor

Revenue Growth

In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, Medtronic reported a 2.5% increase in reported revenue and a 4.1% increase in organic revenue. Investors will be keen to see if this growth momentum has continued or accelerated in Q4. The company has previously guided for full-year fiscal year 2025 organic revenue growth in the range of 4.75% to 5.0%.

Medtronic achieved mid-single-digit revenue growth for the ninth consecutive quarter, with key areas like cardiac ablation solutions growing by 22%.

The Q4 results will determine if they have met this target. Pay close attention to the performance of key segments like Cardiovascular (especially Cardiac Rhythm & Heart Failure and Structural Heart & Aortic), Neuroscience (driven by Neuromodulation), and Diabetes (with continued strong demand for the MiniMed 780G). The Medical Surgical portfolio saw a slight organic revenue decline in Q3. It will be important to see if this trend has stabilized or reversed.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Medtronic reported a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.39 in Q3 FY25, which beat estimates. The company's full-year non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance for FY25 is in the range of $5.44 to $5.50. Q4 results will need to be strong to achieve the upper end of this range.

The company reported high-single-digit EPS growth ahead of consensus and guidance, with improvements in both gross and operating margins.

Profitability and Margins

In Q3 FY25, Medtronic saw improvements in both gross and operating margins. Investors will be looking for continued strength in this area, reflecting cost control and operational efficiencies.

Leadless pacing, neuromodulation, and diabetes grew double-digits, while structural heart and U.S. cranial and spinal technologies grew high-single-digits.

Guidance for Fiscal Year 2026

While the Q4 and full-year FY25 results are the immediate focus, the company's initial outlook and guidance for fiscal year 2026 will be closely watched for insights into future performance and growth expectations. Medtronic has announced its quarterly earnings release schedule for FY26, with the first quarter results expected on 19 August 2025.

Impact of Market Conditions

The broader macroeconomic environment, including factors like inflation, interest rates, and hospital spending, can influence Medtronic's performance. Any commentary on how these factors are affecting their business will be valuable.

A change in U.S. distributor buying patterns adversely affected surgical performance, costing approximately 200 basis points in growth.

Despite international growth, the U.S. surgical portfolio underperformed due to competitive pressures in the stapling franchise.

Peripheral vascular performance declined due to volatility in China related to value-based procurement (VBP).

New Product Pipelines and Clinical Trials

Updates on key product launches and the progress of clinical trials, such as those related to pulsed field ablation technologies and the Hugo robotic-assisted surgery system, could impact investor sentiment. For example, the Expand URO U.S. clinical trial for the Hugo system recently met its primary safety and effectiveness endpoints.

Advancements in innovation with renal denervation and progress in significant markets like diabetes and cardiac ablation solutions.

International markets grew 5%, with high-single-digit growth in Japan and emerging markets showing high-single-digit to double-digit growth.

Medtronic (MDT) Price Target

Based on 28 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Medtronic in the last 3 months. The average price target is $96.06 with a high forecast of $112.46 and a low forecast of $85.00. The average price target represents a 11.55% change from the last price of $86.11.

Lower inventory levels at some distributors reportedly affected sales in previous quarters, and the company anticipated a similar impact on Q4 results. It will be important to see if this issue has been resolved.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Medtronic's stock performance has been mixed. While it showed some positive movement early in 2025, it underperformed the S&P 500 in the past few years.

But recently we are seeing a declining momentum as the stock price appear weak and only manage to clear the 50-day period barely, and based on the RSI momentum, we are still not seeing positive momentum coming back, so investors are still not very much into this stock.

We are seeing a low short interest which might indicate that investors could be holding this stock to look at what lies ahead for the guidance and also updates on Medtronic key pipeline advancements, they have faced some challenges in their medical surgical portfolio in the last quarter, hope this could improve in this upcoming reported quarter.

Summary

Medtronic's upcoming fiscal Q4 2025 earnings will focus on revenue growth across its various segments, profitability, EPS compared to guidance and analyst expectations, and any insights provided in the guidance for the upcoming fiscal year. Updates on key product pipelines and the impact of the broader economic environment will also be crucial for investors.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Medtronics would be able to provide a stronger guidance due to better performance for their key product pipelines.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.