To The Moon

$Intuit(INTU)$, the financial technology platform behind TurboTax, Credit Karma, QuickBooks, and Mailchimp, is scheduled to announce its third-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 22 May 2025, following the close of the market.

Revenue: Intuit's guidance for Q3 FY25 revenue is between $7.550 billion and $7.600 billion, representing a growth of approximately 12% to 13%. The consensus revenue estimate is around $7.54 billion to $7.6 billion.

Earnings per Share (EPS): The company expects GAAP diluted EPS to be between $9.22 and $9.28, and non-GAAP diluted EPS to be between $10.89 and $10.95. Analysts' consensus estimate for Q3 2025 EPS is around $9.63 to $10.89.

Full Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance: Intuit has reiterated its full-year guidance, projecting total revenue growth of 12% to 13% and non-GAAP diluted EPS growth of 13% to 14%.

Intuit (INTU) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Rise By 19.23%

Intuit had a positive earnings call on 25 Feb 2025 which saw its share price gained by 19.23% since.

The earnings call was predominantly positive, highlighting strong financial performance across multiple segments, significant advancements in AI-driven products, and successful expansion into mid-market segments. Although there were minor challenges, such as a slight decline in the ProTax Group and Mailchimp growth hurdles, these were overshadowed by the company's strong revenue growth and strategic achievements.

Intuit (INTU) Guidance

During Intuit's second quarter fiscal 2025 conference call, the company provided robust guidance, reiterating its full-year expectations for double-digit revenue growth and expanding margins. Intuit reported a 17% increase in revenue for the quarter, totaling $4 billion, with GAAP operating income surging by 61% to $593 million.

Non-GAAP operating income grew 26% to $1.3 billion, while GAAP diluted earnings per share rose 34% to $1.67. The company highlighted the strong performance of its Global Business Solutions Group, which saw a 19% revenue growth, driven by a 21% increase in Online Ecosystem revenue, excluding Mailchimp. Intuit's AI-driven initiatives played a crucial role in enhancing customer experiences and operational efficiencies, contributing nearly $90 million in annualized efficiencies in the first half of the year.

Intuit's CEO, Sasan Goodarzi, emphasized the momentum in their AI-driven platform strategy, with significant progress in consumer platforms like TurboTax and Credit Karma, and a strong start in the tax season, expecting Consumer Group revenue growth of 7% to 8% for fiscal 2025. The company maintained its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting total revenue growth between 12% and 13%, with GAAP and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share expected to grow by 18% to 20% and 13% to 14%, respectively.

Factors to Watch For Intuit (INTU) Fiscal Q3 2025 Earnings

Intuit reported a 17% revenue growth for Q2 2025, demonstrating strong business performance across its segments.

TurboTax and Tax Season Performance: Q3 is a crucial quarter for Intuit due to the peak of the tax season. Investors will closely monitor the performance of TurboTax, particularly its online and live service offerings, and its ability to attract and retain customers.

GAAP operating income increased by 61% to $593 million, and non-GAAP operating income rose by 26% to $1.3 billion. TurboTax Live Full Service achieved a Product Recommendation Score of 84, indicating high customer satisfaction and successful AI-driven enhancements.

ProTax Group revenue decreased by 1% in Q2.

QuickBooks Online Growth: The growth of QuickBooks Online (QBO) and its ecosystem remains a key driver for Intuit. Investors will look for updates on subscriber growth, average revenue per user (ARPU), and the adoption of higher-priced offerings like QBO Advanced. In the previous quarter (Q2 FY25), QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew by 22%.

Credit Karma's Momentum: Credit Karma has shown strong revenue growth in recent quarters (36% in Q2 FY25). Investors will be keen to see if this momentum continues, driven by its credit card, personal loan, and auto insurance offerings.

Credit Karma revenue grew by 36%, driven by strength in credit cards, personal loans, and auto insurance.

Mailchimp Integration and Performance: Intuit's acquisition of Mailchimp aimed to strengthen its offerings for small businesses. Investors will be looking for updates on the integration progress and Mailchimp's contribution to overall growth.

Mailchimp's revenue growth was impacted by lapping of price changes, signifying ongoing challenges in scaling its business.

AI-Driven Innovation: Intuit has been emphasizing its focus on leveraging AI to deliver enhanced customer experiences and increase productivity across its platform. Any updates on the impact of AI in products like TurboTax Live Full Service and other areas will be closely watched.

Mid-Market Expansion: Intuit's focus on expanding into the mid-market segment with offerings like QBO Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite has shown promising growth (40% growth in Online Ecosystem revenue for these in Q2 FY25). Updates on this strategy will be important.

Intuit's focus on mid-market customers resulted in a 40% growth in Online Ecosystem revenue for QBO Advanced and Intuit Enterprise Suite.

Share Repurchase and Dividends: Intuit has been actively repurchasing its stock and has increased its quarterly dividend. Any updates on capital allocation plans will be of interest to investors.

Intuit (INTU) Price Target

Based on 27 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Intuit in the last 3 months. The average price target is $700.94 with a high forecast of $785.00 and a low forecast of $530.00. The average price target represents a 5.99% change from the last price of $661.31.

Analysts generally have a positive outlook on Intuit, with a consensus rating of "Buy" or "Strong Buy." The average 12-month price target ranges from $633.18 to $716.78, suggesting a potential upside from the current trading price.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Intuit's stock (INTU) has shown some volatility but has generally trended upwards. Over the past year, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK). However, it has seen positive movement recently.

We have seen very good momentum build up with stock price now consolidating and sideway trading, this could be due to the concerns of demand for Intuit’s software in the midst of tariffs pause. But generally I think INTU have room for a higher upside if the positive momentum continues.

I will be considering to take a position early next week.

We are seeing decreasing short interest, so I do not think investors are planning to sell for profits as there is potential upside for this software company, the demand for its services should be coming back for its consumer platforms with a strong start in the tax season where many companies FY ended by 31 March 2025.

Summary

Intuit's Q3 2025 earnings report will provide critical insights into its performance during the peak tax season and the continued growth of its other key segments like QuickBooks and Credit Karma.

Investors will be particularly interested in the impact of AI initiatives and the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and profitability. The guidance for the full fiscal year will also be a key factor influencing market reaction.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Intuit could provide a positive guidance and provide continued growth in its key segment for a surprise surge in share price.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.