Nvidia Earnings: Will Jensen Dictate the Bull or Bear Market for the Rest of the Year?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ will report FY2025 Q1 Earnings. As market rebounds to a key resistance level, will Jensen decide the bull or bear market for the rest of the year?
1. Revenue Expectations Slow: Peaking Growth or Just Conservative Guidance?
Nvidia is guiding for Q1 revenue of $43 billion, with a ±2% margin of error — that puts the range between $42.14 billion and $43.86 billion. Wall Street expects $43.28 billion, representing a 65.77% year-over-year increase, while EPS is projected at $0.81, up 36.19% YoY (factoring in a one-time H20 inventory write-down).
Despite these strong YoY figures, they mark a significant slowdown from last year’s same period, when revenue growth exceeded 250%. Moreover, the sequential (QoQ) increase is only 9.4% (up just $3.7 billion from last quarter's $39.3B).
revenue trend of Nvidia
Is this a sign of Nvidia becoming overly conservative — or has its rapid growth truly hit a plateau?
2. H20 Write-down Pressure: Are the Headwinds Already Priced In?
On April 9, the Trump administration notified Nvidia that the H20 chip, designed for the Chinese market, would now require an export license. Following this, Nvidia announced a massive $5.5 billion inventory write-down — one of the largest in semiconductor history.
According to BNP Paribas analyst David O’Connor, this implies that H20-related revenues could decline by $15 billion on a 12-month rolling basis.
Earlier this month, CEO Jensen Huang admitted that Nvidia's GPU market share in China had plunged from 95% to 50% due to escalating export controls. Given China’s $17.1 billion in annual revenue (Nvidia’s fourth-largest market), the geopolitical risks are significant and ongoing.
3. Blackwell Takes the Baton: Is Demand Still Overwhelming Supply?
Beyond geopolitics, Nvidia is also navigating a unique product transition cycle: flagship architectures Hopper and Blackwell are now overlapping. This handoff is pressuring short-term margins but may pave the way for longer-term upside.
News reports suggest that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle have preordered over 3.6 million Blackwell chips for 2025, far outpacing current production capacity. Notably, Oracle alone plans to purchase 400,000 GB200 chips to build a strategic AI data center, with an investment of $40 billion — the largest single disclosed Nvidia deal to date.
This upcoming earnings could be a defining moment not just for Nvidia, but for the broader tech-driven bull market. As some investors say — this is Jensen’s market now.
Key Questions to Consider Before the Earnings:
Is the guidance a realistic reflection of headwinds, or is management strategically sandbagging to leave room for a beat?
Is the slowdown in growth structural or temporary?
How much growth are investors willing to pay for now?
With the broader market at elevated levels, does Nvidia need to surprise to keep the rally alive?
Can Blackwell demand offset geopolitical downside?
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Nvidia is guiding for Q1 revenue of $43 billion, with a ±2% margin of error — that puts the range between $42.14 billion and $43.86 billion. Wall Street expects $43.28 billion, representing a 65.77% year-over-year increase, while EPS is projected at $0.81, up 36.19% YoY (factoring in a one-time H20 inventory write-down).
Is the guidance a realistic reflection of headwinds, or is management strategically sandbagging to leave room for a beat?
Is the slowdown in growth structural or temporary?
How much growth are investors willing to pay for now?
With the broader market at elevated levels, does Nvidia need to surprise to keep the rally alive?
Can Blackwell demand offset geopolitical downside?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
The $5.5B write-down is significant, but Nvidia’s ability to pivot is more telling. Demand from Amazon, Microsoft, and Oracle — with Oracle alone committing $40B shows that global AI investment remains strong. Blackwell isn’t just an upgrade cycle; it’s a foundational shift & Nvidia is clearly still the leader.
This earnings report is about confidence. If Jensen emphasizes robust AI demand & smooth product transitions, the market will take it as a green light. With the Nasdaq at resistance, Nvidia could be the breakout trigger & I believe NVDA has the momentum to surge past $150.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
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