To The Moon

$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$ is scheduled to release its Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings on 04 June 2025 after the U.S. market closes.

Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus estimate is generally around $0.65 to $0.67, falling directly within or at the top end of MongoDB's own guidance range. It's important to note that for GAAP EPS, analysts often expect a loss (e.g., around -$0.74 or similar), highlighting the difference between adjusted and unadjusted profitability for the company.

Quarterly Revenue: The consensus estimate for revenue is typically around $526.1 million to $527.5 million, which is within MongoDB's guided range. This would represent year-over-year growth of approximately 17-18% (compared to $450.56 million in Q1 FY25).

MongoDB (MDB) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw 16% Decline In Share Price

MongoDB (MDB) announced its Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings on 05 March 2025, for the quarter ended 31 January 2025.

Below is a summary of the Q4 FY25 performance

Total Revenue: $548.4 million, representing a 20% increase year-over-year. This figure exceeded analyst estimates of around $519.65 million and also surpassed the high end of their own guidance.

MongoDB Atlas Revenue: Grew by 24% year-over-year, making up a significant 71% of total revenue. This highlights the continued strength and importance of their cloud-based database-as-a-service offering.

Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.28, which significantly beat analyst expectations of approximately $0.64 to $0.67. This was also a substantial improvement from $0.86 per share in the year-ago period.

GAAP Net Income: $15.8 million, or $0.20 per share, a positive turnaround from a net loss of $55.5 million in Q4 FY24.

Non-GAAP Operating Income: $112.5 million, reflecting a 21% non-GAAP operating margin, demonstrating significant margin expansion compared to the prior year.

Customer Growth: MongoDB continued to expand its customer base, reaching over 54,500 customers as of January 31, 2025. This includes 2,396 customers with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) exceeding $100,000.

Free Cash Flow: $22.9 million for the quarter.

Full Year Fiscal 2025 Highlights

Total Revenue: $2.01 billion, an increase of 19% year-over-year. Non-GAAP Net Income: $274.2 million, or $3.33 per share.

Management Commentary and Outlook: Management stated that they delivered a strong end to fiscal 2025, with better-than-expected Atlas consumption and strong performance in new workload wins.

They emphasized the flexibility, scalability, and performance of the MongoDB platform, and expressed excitement about the long-term growth opportunity, particularly in enabling businesses to innovate with AI.

The acquisition of Voyage AI was highlighted as a move to combine real-time data, embedding and retrieval models, and semantic search directly in the database to simplify AI-powered app development.

Key Factors and Themes to Watch

Atlas Consumption Growth: MongoDB Atlas, their cloud-based database service, is the primary revenue driver (71% of total revenue in Q4 FY25).

What to watch: The actual growth rate of Atlas revenue. Management had previously guided for "stable consumption growth" in Atlas for FY26, but the overall revenue guidance implied a deceleration. Investors will be looking for confirmation of this stability or any signs of further slowdown/reacceleration.

Anticipated trend: Atlas growth has been decelerating in recent quarters (e.g., 24% in Q4 FY25, down from 26% in Q3 FY25). The market will be sensitive to any indication of this trend worsening.

Non-Atlas Revenue Performance: Management specifically highlighted that they expect non-Atlas revenue to decline high-single digits in percentage terms on a year-over-year basis for the full fiscal year 2026. This was a key reason for the weaker-than-expected full-year guidance in March.

What to watch: The actual performance of non-Atlas revenue in Q1. Any deviation from this anticipated decline could impact sentiment.

Anticipated trend: A continued decline in this segment is expected and largely factored into the current guidance.

Profitability and Margin Management: While MongoDB has shown significant non-GAAP margin expansion, the Q1 non-GAAP EPS guidance was lower than prior analyst expectations.

What to watch: Non-GAAP operating margin and gross margin. The company is making investments in AI and marketing, which could impact short-term profitability.

Anticipated trend: Investors will be looking to see if the company can maintain or improve its efficiency despite the revenue growth slowdown.

Impact of AI Initiatives (Voyage AI acquisition): MongoDB completed the acquisition of Voyage AI, aiming to integrate AI capabilities directly into the database.

What to watch: Management commentary on the progress of integrating Voyage AI, initial customer feedback, and any early indicators of how AI-powered features are driving adoption or new workloads.

Anticipated trend: The company's prior guidance suggested only "modest incremental" revenue contribution from AI in FY26. Any indication of a stronger or weaker near-term impact could influence investor perception.

Customer Metrics and Workload Wins

What to watch: Growth in the number of customers, particularly those with higher Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) (e.g., over $100,000). Also, commentary on new workload wins and strategic partnerships.

Anticipated trend: Continued expansion of the customer base and adoption of more MongoDB features are crucial for long-term growth.

Full-Year FY26 Guidance Reaffirmation or Revision: This will likely be the most critical element for stock movement.

What to watch: Whether MongoDB reaffirms its full-year FY26 revenue guidance ($2.24 billion to $2.28 billion) and non-GAAP EPS guidance ($2.91 to $3.15).

Anticipated trend: The previous full-year guidance was a significant disappointment for the market. Any further downward revision would be highly negative, while reaffirmation (especially if Q1 results are a modest beat) could provide some stability.

MongoDB (MDB) Price Target

Based on 34 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for MongoDB in the last 3 months. The average price target is $267.35 with a high forecast of $520.00 and a low forecast of $160.00. The average price target represents a 41.49% change from the last price of $188.95.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

In the previous reported quarter, despite beating both revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates, MongoDB's stock experienced a significant decline (around 16-18%) in aftermarket trading following the earnings release. This was primarily attributed to the weaker-than-expected guidance for Q1 Fiscal Year 2026 and the full Fiscal Year 2026.

As we can see from the current trading, MongoDB is trading sideway in consolidation and investors might be waiting to see if there would be an improvement for the guidance for future quarter and the full year 2026, looking at the demand from AI, and database have been mentioned, we could be seeing some improvement in its upcoming earnings.

Summary

When MongoDB reports its Q1 FY26 earnings tomorrow, the focus will be on whether they can meet or slightly exceed their tempered guidance for both revenue and non-GAAP EPS.

Beyond the headline numbers, I think investors might need to closely analyze the growth of their Atlas cloud service, the performance of the non-Atlas segment, and any new insights into their AI strategy's near-term impact.

More importantly, how the management would be providing the updated full-year guidance, could provide insights and shape how investors decide to trade this stock and the guidance could be shaping the stock’s direction more significantly.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think MongoDB could provide a much better updated full year guidance to shape the stock’s direction towards the upside.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.