To The Moon

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ is set to release its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2025, on Tuesday, 03 June 2025, before the U.S. markets open.

Vehicle Deliveries: NIO has already announced 42,094 vehicle deliveries for Q1 2025, which falls within its previously guided range of 41,000 to 43,000 vehicles. This represents a significant increase of 40.07% year-over-year from Q1 2024 (30,053 vehicles) but a decrease of 42.09% from Q4 2024 (72,689 vehicles). The sequential decline is expected due to typical seasonality in the EV market.

Revenue: The company previously guided Q1 2025 revenue to be between RMB 12.37 billion and RMB 12.86 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of about 24.8% to 29.8%.

Consensus EPS: Analysts generally expect NIO to report a loss of approximately ($0.35) per share for Q1 2025. This would represent an improvement compared to prior quarters' net losses, suggesting a gradual move towards profitability.

Net Income: The forecast for Q1 2025 net income is approximately -$68.84 million, which would also indicate an improvement in net losses over time.

Gross Margin & Vehicle Margin: Investors will be keen to see if Nio can maintain or improve its gross and vehicle margins. In Q4 2024, vehicle margin was 13.1% and gross margin was 11.7%, showing improvement from the previous year.

Second Highest Deliveries By Nio Inc For April 2025

Nio Inc, which includes the Nio, Onvo and Firefly brands, had 6,530 insurance registrations in China last week, down 1.80 percent from the previous week.

Nio Inc delivered 23,900 vehicles in April, its second highest ever, behind 31,138 in December last year, according to figures it announced on May 1. The Nio brand delivered 19,269 vehicles in April, up 23.36 percent year-on-year and up 88.56 percent from March.

Nio Inc. (NIO) Last Neutral Earnings Call Saw Significant Share Price Decline By 22.08%

Nio Inc. had a neutral earnings call on 21 March 2025 which saw its share price declined by 22.08%.

The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in vehicle deliveries, market share leadership, and network expansion. However, it also noted increased net losses, challenges with the ONVO brand, and rising operating expenses. Despite the positive growth in certain areas, the financial and operational challenges present a balanced view.

Nio Inc. (NIO) Guidance

During NIO's 2024 Q4 and full-year earnings call, several key metrics and guidance were highlighted. NIO set a record in Q4 by delivering 72,689 Smart EVs, with December surpassing 30,000 deliveries for the first time, contributing to a total of 221,970 deliveries in 2024—a 38.7% year-over-year increase. The company secured a 40% market share in China's BEV segment priced above RMB300,000, and the ONVO brand delivered 20,761 vehicles.

NIO expects Q1 2025 deliveries to reach between 41,000 and 43,000 units, reflecting a 36% to 43% year-over-year growth. Financially, NIO improved its vehicle margin to 14.9% in Q4, and the company's overall vehicle margin reached 13.1%. Total Q4 revenues were RMB 19.7 billion, with vehicle sales contributing RMB 17.5 billion. For 2025, NIO plans to launch nine new models across three brands and aims to double its sales volume from 2024. The company is also strategically expanding its power swap and charging networks, with 3,245 power swap stations and over 25,000 chargers built globally. NIO remains focused on achieving breakeven by Q4 2025 and enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.

Key Factors to Watch in the Q1 2025 Report

Profitability Path: Despite consistent revenue growth and delivery increases, NIO has faced significant losses. The market will be looking for signs of continued improvement in margins and a clearer path to sustained profitability. Cost optimization efforts and efficiency in manufacturing will be crucial.

Net loss was RMB7.1 billion, showing an increase of 32.5% year-over-year and 40.6% quarter-over-quarter. SG&A expenses were RMB4.9 billion, up 22.8% year-over-year and 18.7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased sales and marketing for new brands and network expansion.

Interest and investment loss was RMB0.2 billion, primarily due to the fair value change of equity investment.

Vehicle Margin: While the Q4 2024 vehicle margin of 13.1% was an improvement, it's generally still below the 18-20% often considered necessary for sustainable profitability in the auto sector. Any progress here will be closely watched.

NIO delivered a total of 72,689 Smart EVs in Q4 2024, setting a new quarterly record. For the full year, deliveries reached 221,970, marking a 38.7% increase year-over-year.

New Brand Performance (ONVO and FIREFLY): Nio has launched its sub-brand ONVO, and the FIREFLY brand is also in the pipeline, aiming to target broader price ranges. While the Q1 deliveries include some ONVO vehicles, details on their initial sales performance, market reception, and contribution to overall revenue and margins will be important. The ONVO L60 has shown promise in the RMB 200,000-300,000 BEV SUV segment.

NIO launched the NIO 89 flagship smart executive sedan and scheduled multiple new models and upgrades, including the ONVO L90 and Firefly brand launch in April 2025.

ONVO's sales performance did not meet expectations, attributed to low brand awareness, immature sales force, and fierce competition. Recent sales volume was impacted by negative public opinions and PR attacks.

Product Mix and Average Selling Price (ASP): A shift in product mix (e.g., towards more affordable ONVO models) could impact ASP, even with increased deliveries. The report should provide insights into how this is affecting overall revenue.

NIO's vehicle margin improved to 14.9% in Q4, while the company's overall vehicle margin reached 13.1% due to supply chain optimization and cost control.

Cash Position: As of December 31, 2024, NIO held RMB 41.9 billion in cash, restricted cash, short-term investments, and long-term time deposits. The burn rate and cash flow will be critical, especially with ongoing investments in R&D, sales networks, and power solutions.

Macroeconomic Environment and Competition: The highly competitive Chinese EV market and broader economic conditions in China will continue to influence NIO's performance. The ongoing price war in the EV sector could pressure margins.

The NIO brand secured a 40% market share in China's BEV segment priced above RMB300,000. The ONVO L60 ranked among the top three in China's BEV SUV market priced between RMB200,000 and RMB300,000.

Updates on Technology and Service Network: NIO differentiates itself through its battery swap technology, comprehensive service network, and smart driving features. Updates on the expansion and adoption of these services will be relevant.

NIO deployed 3,245 power swap stations worldwide and built over 25,000 power chargers. A record 137,000 battery swaps were made in a single day during the New Year holiday.

Nio Inc. (NIO) Price Target

Based on 24 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Nio in the last 3 months. The average price target is $5.88 with a high forecast of $12.50 and a low forecast of $3.50. The average price target represents a 60.18% change from the last price of $3.69.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

While Q4 saw strong delivery growth and improved margins, the widening net loss highlighted the continued challenge of achieving profitability.

We can see from the declining RSI momentum which is worrying as it is moving into negative, and the bears are in control, so we might not see a recovery soon for NIO, we need a very strong guidance and also NIO need to provide a plan on how they planned to narrow their net loss, and also capturing more in to Chinese EV market.

So I would hold back getting into this Chinese EV maker stock now, unless we can see some positive signal from its sales and technology development which could be a differentiator.

Summary

When NIO releases its Q1 2025 earnings, i think investors would be focused on whether the company met its delivery and revenue guidance, and more importantly, if it showed further progress in narrowing its losses and improving its profitability metrics (especially vehicle and gross margins).

The performance of its new ONVO brand and any updates on future strategies to compete in the intense Chinese EV market will also be key to understanding the company's outlook.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Nio Inc could continue to improve its position in the competitive Chinese EV market and also how Nio planned to narrow their net loss and provide a better path to achieving profitability.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.