To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla’s gears are shifting into overdrive with CEO Elon Musk officially announcing his exit from the Trump administration to refocus on the company, just as Tesla gears up to launch its much-hyped Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, on June 12, 2025. Despite a recent rally fueled by this news, the stock remains down 11% year-to-date (YTD), sitting at $280. With Musk doubling down on Tesla and the Robotaxi dream finally taking shape, investors are buzzing: Does this signal a full recovery? Will the Robotaxi launch stick to its timeline? Can Tesla hit $400, or is it teetering on overbought? Let’s break it down.

Musk’s Return: A Game-Changer for Tesla?

Musk’s deep involvement with the Trump administration—leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)—had sparked a backlash, with some Tesla fans boycotting the brand over his political stances. Europe’s sales dropped 50% year-over-year, and Q1 2025 automotive revenue fell 20%, partly due to factory retooling for the refreshed Model Y. Musk’s announcement that he’s stepping away to focus on Tesla for the next five years has reignited investor confidence. Posts on X reflect the sentiment: users are calling it a “new dawn” for Tesla, with Musk’s laser focus seen as a catalyst to steer the company back to growth. But Musk’s track record of overpromising—especially on autonomy—means skepticism lingers.

Robotaxi Launch: Reality or Another Delay?

Tesla’s Robotaxi service is set to debut on June 12 in Austin with 10 Model Y vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD) Unsupervised, a step up from the supervised version. Musk plans to scale to 1,000 vehicles within months if the launch goes smoothly, with remote monitoring by Tesla employees and geofenced routes in Austin’s safest areas. This aligns with Musk’s vision of a “golden age of autonomous growth,” potentially unlocking $1 trillion in value, as Wedbush analyst Dan Ives predicts. Expansion to Los Angeles and San Francisco is teased next, but regulatory hurdles—like the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s scrutiny of FSD in poor visibility—could throw a wrench in the plans.

Musk has promised self-driving cars for nearly a decade, often missing deadlines. Posts on X show mixed vibes: some cheer the June 12 date as a breakthrough, while others, like a user citing Austin city concerns, doubt it’ll be more than a “parking lot demo” with remote operators. Competitors like Waymo, already running 250,000 paid trips weekly, add pressure. Still, Tesla’s doubling down on this timeline—backed by The Boring Company’s tunnel tech to ease traffic—suggests confidence. A successful launch could be a rocket booster; a delay could dent credibility.

Stock Watch: $400 in Sight or Overbought Risk?

Tesla’s stock at $280 is up 45% from April lows but still down 11% YTD, lagging the S&P 500’s 8% gain. The Robotaxi announcement and Musk’s return have fueled momentum—MACD at 10.5 signals bullishness, and the 50-day moving average of $260 offers support. Analysts are split: Wedbush’s Dan Ives sees $500 on Robotaxi success, while others peg $350 as a near-term ceiling. The forward P/E of 25 is reasonable for a growth stock, but the RSI at 67 is nearing overbought territory.

A $400 target—implying a 43% jump—hinges on a flawless Robotaxi rollout and renewed EV demand. Trade truce tailwinds (U.S.-China tariff cuts of 115 points) could help, but Europe’s slump and China’s EV competition (like BYD) are headwinds. If Robotaxi stumbles or macro risks flare, a dip to $250 isn’t out of the question. The stock’s high beta (1.9) means volatility is a given—brace for a wild ride.

YTD Recovery: Can Tesla Turn the Tide?

Tesla’s 11% YTD loss reflects a rocky start—brand damage from Musk’s political foray, a 71% Q1 profit drop, and softening EV demand. The Robotaxi launch could be the pivot: a successful rollout might slash that deficit, especially if it proves Tesla’s AI edge over rivals. Strong Q2 sales—bolstered by Model Y retooling completion—could add fuel. But macro uncertainty, like Fed rate pressures (2.68 cuts expected in 2025), and regulatory risks could cap gains. A full YTD recovery by year-end is possible but demands execution perfection.

Trading Strategy: Ride the Hype or Hedge?

Bullish Play:

• Buy at $280, stop at $260, target $350-$400. Robotaxi success could spark a rally.

• Allocate 50% to Tesla, 30% to Nvidia (AI synergy), 20% cash for dips.

Cautious Approach:

• Take profits if RSI hits 70—sell 25% of holdings.

• Add Procter & Gamble (PG) at $160 (stop $155, target $170) for stability.

The Robotaxi launch is a high-stakes bet—rewarding if it sticks, punishing if it slips. I’m leaning 60% bullish but keeping stops tight.

Tesla’s YTD Journey

Here’s a Python script to visualize Tesla’s YTD price action:

This chart shows Tesla’s rollercoaster—down 11% YTD but climbing. Can June 12 spark a full recovery?

The Big Picture: Bet on Tesla or Brace for Impact?

Musk’s return and the Robotaxi launch on June 12 could be Tesla’s turning point, erasing YTD losses and eyeing $400 if all goes right. But overbought risks, regulatory hurdles, and global competition mean it’s not a slam dunk. The stock’s got momentum, but execution is everything. Are you riding this wave or waiting for a dip? Share your strategy below!

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire