To The Moon

$Rubrik Inc.(RBRK)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, 05 June 2025.

Revenue: Rubrik anticipates Q1 Fiscal 2026 revenue to be in the range of $259 million to $261 million. The analyst consensus for Q1 2026 revenue is approximately 260.41 million, which would represent a significant year−over−year increase (around 39.02 million)

Non−GAAP EPS: The company expects a non−GAAP EPS in the range of (0.33) to (0.31). The analyst consensus for non−GAAP EPS is around(0.69), suggesting a potential divergence in expectations.

Non-GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin: Rubrik guided for this metric to be approximately 4.0% to 5.0%. This is a key profitability metric for SaaS companies.

Weighted-average shares outstanding: Expected to be approximately 192 million.

Rubrik (RBRK) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Rose Significantly By 72.54%

Rubrik had a positive earnings call on 13 March 2025 which saw its share price rose significantly by 72.54% since.

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, significant growth in subscription ARR, and improved profitability. However, there is some caution in the outlook for fiscal 2026 with a moderation in net new ARR growth. Overall, the company shows robust growth and strategic positioning in the cyber resilience market.

Rubrik (RBRK) Guidance

In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, Rubrik, Inc. surpassed all guided metrics, showcasing substantial growth and profitability. Subscription ARR reached $1.093 billion, marking a 39% year-over-year increase, with net new subscription ARR exceeding $90 million. Subscription revenue grew to $244 million, a 54% increase from the previous year. The company maintained a strong subscription NRR above 120% and saw customers with $100k or more in subscription ARR grow by 29% to 2,246, while those with $1 million or more increased by 64% to 162.

Rubrik also improved its subscription ARR contribution margin by over 1,400 basis points year-over-year. On the cash front, Rubrik generated over $75 million in free cash flow this quarter and $22 million for the full fiscal year, achieving a 29% free cash flow margin. Total revenue climbed 47% year-over-year, reflecting the company's robust performance in the cyber resilience market. Looking forward, Rubrik is guiding fiscal 2026 numbers ahead of consensus, indicating confidence in continued growth driven by strategic investments, product innovation, and market demand for cyber resilience solutions.

Full-year Guidance, Which Will Influence Expectations For Q1

Subscription ARR: Expected to be between $1,350 million and $1,360 million.

Revenue: Projected to be between $1,145 million and 1,161 million. Non−GAAP Subscription ARR contribution margin: Anticipated to be approximately 4.5. Non−GAAP EPS: Expected to be between (1.23) to $(1.13).

Weighted-average shares outstanding: Expected to be approximately 198 million.

Free Cash Flow: Guided to be between $45 million and $65 million.

What To Watch For In The Actual Earnings Report

Performance against guidance: The primary focus will be on whether Rubrik meets, beats, or misses its own guidance for revenue and non-GAAP EPS.

Subscription ARR Growth: As a cybersecurity company transitioning to a subscription model, Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is a crucial metric for evaluating the health and growth trajectory of the business. Investors will look for continued strong growth here.

Subscription ARR reached $1.093 billion, growing 39% year over year, with net new subscription ARR of over $90 million in Q4. Subscription revenue was $244 million, growing 54% year over year.

Customer Growth and Retention: Details on new customer acquisitions, particularly large enterprise customers, and dollar-based net retention rate will be important indicators of market penetration and customer satisfaction. Rubrik reported 2,246 customers with $100K+ in Subscription ARR as of January 31, 2025, up 29% year-over-year.

Subscription NRR remained strong above 120%, with customers spending $100k or more in subscription ARR growing 29% year over year.

Gross Margins (especially Non-GAAP Subscription Gross Margin): Strong gross margins are essential for a software company's long-term profitability.

Total revenue grew 47% year over year.

Operating Expenses and Path to Profitability: While Rubrik is in a growth phase and still reporting losses, investors will look for controlled spending and a clear path toward sustainable profitability and positive free cash flow. Rubrik achieved its first year of positive free cash flow in FY2025.

Material improvement in subscription ARR contribution margin, up over 1,400 basis points year over year. Reported over $75 million in free cash flow for the quarter and approximately $22 million for the full fiscal year.

Sales and Marketing Efficiency: How effectively Rubrik is acquiring new customers and expanding within its existing customer base.

Notable customer wins and partnerships, including a European insurance company and a Fortune 50 organization.

Updates on Product Innovation and Market Trends: Given the dynamic cybersecurity landscape, any commentary on new product features, partnerships, or how Rubrik is addressing evolving cyber threats (e.g., AI-driven threats, ransomware) will be of interest. Rubrik focuses on "Zero Trust Data Security" and its "Rubrik Security Cloud."

Guidance for fiscal 2026 suggests net new ARR growth at 24%, lower than fiscal 2025 growth. Experienced mid to high single digits compression in billings duration year over year.

Rubrik (RBRK) Price Target

Based on 20 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Rubrik, Inc. Class A in the last 3 months. The average price target is $86.12 with a high forecast of $110.00 and a low forecast of $72.00. The average price target represents a -9.71% change from the last price of $95.38.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Investors remains upbeat on Rubrik share price as we are seeing increasing positive momentum though the guidance for fiscal 2026 suggests that the net ARR growth might be lower than that of fiscal 2025 growth.

But I would think if Rubrik could provide an earnings beat and also adjusted guidance for fiscal 2026 to show that the ARR growth would continue to remain strong. Then Rubrik share price might see a surge or gap up after its earnings.

Positive Reaction: A beat on revenue and, especially, a narrower loss or even positive surprise on non-GAAP EPS, coupled with strong Subscription ARR growth and optimistic full-year guidance, would likely lead to a positive stock price reaction.

Negative Reaction: Missing revenue or Subscription ARR targets, a wider-than-expected loss, or a conservative outlook could result in a negative market response. Given Rubrik's recent IPO (listed on March 13, 2025), investor sentiment can be particularly sensitive to initial earnings reports.

Summary

Rubrik's Q1 2026 earnings will be a significant event for the company, as it will be one of its first public reports following its IPO. Investors will be keen to see if the company can maintain its strong growth trajectory and execute on its strategy in the competitive cybersecurity market.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Rubrik could continued to maintain its strong subscription ARR growth and maybe an earnings surprise.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.