Weekly Macro Themes - REITs likely need lower yields to outperform
This week I covered the following topics: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$
1. Global Policy Pulse: The global jog of rate cuts continues to add monetary tailwinds to global growth (and global ex-US equities), albeit a new higher range in inflation likely limits scope for further cuts.
2. US Housing: Remain cautious on the US housing market given high servicing burden for new buyers + multiple headwinds putting pressure on still historically elevated valuations.
3. REITs: There is a potential contrarian case here as positioning remains light, but valuations are mixed; REITs likely need lower yields to outperform (making them a possible defensive play).
4. Frontier Markets: Remain bullish on frontier market equities given strong technicals, monetary tailwinds, and room to run on valuations (and improving outlook for FM FX).
5. Commodity Equities: Remain bullish on improving technicals (+bullish outlook for commodity prices), and reasonable absolute (and cheap relative) valuations.
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