To The Moon

Hi everyone, Here are this week’s key macro and market themes. Inflation risks are rising, software stocks are staging a comeback, and value stocks may be quietly setting up for their next move. 1. Inflation risks remain elevated Global inflation still faces upside pressure from firmer commodity prices, geopolitical risks, tight capacity and relatively limited policy response. 2. Software stocks remain attractive Software stocks continue to look promising, supported by improving technicals, a major valuation reset and a still-solid earnings outlook despite AI-related concerns. 3. Stocks still have the edge over bonds Equities look increasingly expensive relative to bonds, while positioning is heavily tilted toward stocks. However, macro conditions, policy and technical signals continue to

Stocks beating Bonds should be no surprise for those paying attention. Stocks are in a raging bull market. Bonds are in brutal a bear market. But you might be surprised by the extent of it (see chart below). The rolling 10-year annualized total return spread (i.e. including interest for bonds, dividends for stocks) of stocks vs bonds just cracked 15% —the highest since 1960 (and eclipsing the 1929 high). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Looking at the two series separately (below) we can see bonds making long-cycle lows, and stocks making long-cycle highs in real (CPI-adjusted) total returns. I think it’s important to emphasize the word cycle, because there does appear to be some rhyth

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 23 August 2026 This week: global earnings pulse, tech sector sentiment signals, positioning, valuations, contrarian corner, volatility technicals, gold vs bonds... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Global corporate earnings estimates are surging. Tech is seeing big insider buying (but also heavy shorting). Energy, Gold, Bitcoin seen major ETF outflows (+are all turning up again). Indian stocks have been punished as an AI-loser within emerging markets. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is bouncing along the bottom of the range, seasonality says it goes up. Overall, the global equities bull market looks alive and well, especially when you consider the surge in earnings expectations underpinning it. US te

This week’s charts continue to show a decidedly bullish market. 📈 Breadth is improving. The equal-weighted $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is starting to outperform the cap-weighted index, suggesting the rally is broadening beyond the mega-cap names. That’s generally a healthy sign for the market. 💰 Earnings are getting stronger. Earnings revisions are surging, with a solid macro backdrop providing additional support. At the same time, higher prices are boosting investor confidence, sentiment and equity allocations. ⚠️ But the rally isn’t risk-free. Seasonality is becoming less favorable, the Magnificent 7（ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$

The chart below shows the highest country PE10 ratio across time [with revolving membership] (e.g. standouts: Japan in the 1980’s, Finland in 2000, China 2007, Colombia 2010, India 2024, and more recently Taiwan & Korea + USA). The countries represented in the red line changed often. The key point is throughout this period there has very often been a country trading on a PE10 ratio in excess of 40x, and on occasion much higher. Overall I would call this chart an exercise in imagination expansion…

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ The chart below should be studied carefully by every student of the markets. It tells us a lot about how markets move, how things change, how investors behave, and how to think about markets as a long-term active investor. You probably have a few of your own views and ideas when you look at this chart —but here’s some thoughts that come to mind for me: Investor Behavior: everyone wants to own stocks at the top (when valuations are high), few want to own them at the bottom (w

In absolute terms, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown this cycle (so far) is -53%. But when priced in Gold $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ , Bitcoin was down -70% earlier this year (the chart below shows the relative decline in Bitcoin vs Gold). That’s a major downturn, and on par with the 3 previous big down cycles in Bitcoin. And it’s about at the point where you start looking for opportunities. In weighing up Old Coin (Gold) vs New Coin (Bitcoin) we can see both coins were riding the same waves of liquidity and debasement from 2023 all the way up until 2025 —when Bitcoin peaked first (followed by gold this year). As things stand now, gold is staging a strong rally off support after a -25% correction. Meanwhile Bitcoin is stuck in the range; glued to sup

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 9 August 2026 This week: global equities, technical check, tech stocks, credit and macro, volatility signals, wealth and boomers, the most hated investment... Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: Global equities are in a bull market (path of least resistance = higher). US equities are in a broad-based upswing. Investors are scrambling into tech stocks at a record pace. Calm macro is keeping the lid on credit spreads. (but) VIX seasonality says stay alert to Q3 surprises. Overall, the global equity bull market rages on, and with supportive-benign macro the path of least resistance is likely higher. That said, VIX seasonality and known tail risks suggest still having a plan and process on the risk management front…

The US Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market has just been through its third major correction in 40 years. Indeed, the 2020’s downturn has been similar in magnitude to the early-90s downturn and 2008 crisis. But a couple of interesting things stand out. First, those other two major corrections in the commercial real estate market sowed the seeds for decadal booms (a possibility that is completely out of mind for most investors as sentiment on real estate remains deeply pessimistic). The other point of interest is that the bottom looks to already be in, and prices are stabilizing and ticking up again... While there may still be risks, this is the type of thing investors should pay particular attention to, and is exactly the type of setup I hunt for in my work at Topdown Charts. Bonus Chart: R

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 2 August 2026 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 closed July down -0.1% (but still up +9.4% YTD). Semiconductors have seen a 20%+ correction off the peak. Semiconductors’ seasonality says down, volatility says up. REITs and defensives are sounding a cautionary tone. Resources capex is being crowded out by tech capex. Overall, the carnage that unfolded last week in semiconductors is probably more likely setting up for consolidation an