To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE TESLA DAILY TARGET ETF(TSLZ)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ 🚀⚡🤖 Tesla’s Tightrope: Can Robotaxi Catalyse a Breakout or Will Bears Drag It Down? 🤖⚡🚀

Tesla opens the new U.S. trading week at a pivotal juncture. After enduring a 35% decline earlier in the year, the stock has shown signs of renewed energy, spurred by Elon Musk’s refocus on Tesla and anticipation surrounding its 12 June Robotaxi debut in Austin. Friday’s late-May surge offered bulls a glimmer of conviction, but early action this week is already putting technical levels to the test. With macro uncertainty rising and technical signals diverging, this moment feels less like routine volatility and more like a prelude to something decisive.

📉 Structural Context: A Monthly Squeeze with Teeth

Tesla remains trapped between its Tenkan line at $350 and Kijun support near $313. It’s been compressing here for weeks, and monthly Ichimoku squeezes don’t stay quiet for long. Historically, these levels resolve with sharp directional moves. A clean hold above $343–345.80 keeps the bulls in play. Break below $335 and the next stop is likely $324, where a lower demand block and wave support align.

📊 Global Patchwork: Macro Weight, Micro Fireworks

Tesla’s performance is deeply intertwined with global economic conditions. Elevated interest rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.3%, continue to weigh on growth stocks. Meanwhile, EV demand is fragmenting:

   •   🇫🇷 France: Sales down 12.3% in May, hit by subsidy reductions and slowing consumer sentiment.

   •   🇳🇴 Norway: May sales up 213% year-over-year, driven by tax incentives.

   •   🇦🇹 Austria: 643 units sold in May, up 29% YoY, with 2.6% market share — 51% higher than the 3-month average.

   •   🇨🇳 China: Tesla faces stiff competition from XPeng (+230% YoY) and Li Auto (+17% YoY), eroding its dominance.

This regional divergence suggests Tesla’s global share is under pressure, but pockets of strength could fuel a rebound if the company executes on its upcoming initiatives.

📉 Technical Deep Dive: Liquidity Zones and Compression Risk

From a technical standpoint, we’re backtesting the April breakout near $338. After double-bottoming at $280, $TSLA’s May surge was promising, but now the bulls must defend key zones:

   •   $343–345.80: Fibonacci cluster and momentum pivot

   •   $333–334: Minor liquidity shelf

   •   $313–317: Monthly Kijun and larger demand block

Options flow adds another layer:

$340 calls expiring 20 June show significant open interest, suggesting bulls are defending this zone. Short interest has dropped to 2.7% of float, down from 3.2% a month ago, reducing squeeze potential but still leaving room for volatility.

🔁 Bearish Shadow: Elliott’s Warning

The hourly chart reveals a potential Elliott wave correction in progress. After an impulse wave, Tesla appears to be tracing an (A)-(B)-(C) pattern, with the 0.618 retracement at $338.57 under pressure. If this level fails, the next target is $324.01. A breakdown below $335 would confirm this bearish leg, likely triggering stop-loss orders and accelerating the decline. RSI is also showing divergence, suggesting momentum is fading even as price attempts to stabilise.

🤖 Looking to 2028: Beyond the Dashboard

Tesla’s trajectory isn’t simply limited to vehicles despite the Wall Street narrative:

   •   Optimus: A humanoid robot poised to revolutionise labour markets, with a rumoured 2027 rollout.

   •   Colossus: Tesla’s 100,000-GPU AI engine for autonomous systems, unveiled in September 2024.

   •   CyberCab: The fully autonomous Robotaxi, set for its Austin debut on 12 June 2025.

Musk’s recent shareholder letter emphasised margin focus and multi-modal scaling, signalling that Tesla’s ambitions are intact despite near-term headwinds. His withdrawal from political distractions has also resonated with investors, sparking a nearly 7% surge in late May.

🧠 My Take: Optimism Tempered by Vigilance

I’m cautiously bullish heading into the June 12 Robotaxi event. The stock’s recent surge reflects renewed confidence in Musk’s leadership, but technicals suggest the rally is fragile. If Tesla can hold above $343–345.80, bulls could regain control. However, a failure here opens the door to $324. Seasonal weakness into June OPEX and macro risks, Nasdaq breadth is thinning, mean Tesla needs more than hype to sustain momentum.

🎯 Watchlist: What I’m Tracking Closely

   •   $343–345.80 Fibonacci Zone: A hold signals bullish continuation, a break risks $324

   •   Volume at $335 and $324: Spikes here could mark capitulation or a bottom

   •   RSI vs. Price: Divergence could tip the next move

   •   Nasdaq Breadth: Tech weakness would drag Tesla down

   •   June 12 CyberCab Reveal: A success could target $380, a flop risks $313

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