To The Moon

If we looked at the recent share price rebound, I believe that there is FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) as a key factor in this recent rebound. While fundamental strengths underpin $NVIDIA(NVDA)$'s long-term growth, the psychological phenomenon of Fear Of Missing Out undoubtedly amplifies short-term price movements, especially in a stock as high-profile and high-growth as NVDA.

In this article, I would like to share why I think FOMO is likely a significant driver of Nvidia's rebound. I am holding NVDA long term, the current price is on the high side, so does not make loading more a good decision.

Stellar Performance and Continued AI Hype

Nvidia has been a stock market darling for the past year, thanks to its dominant position in the AI chip market. Its GPUs are essential for training and running large language models (LLMs) and other AI applications.

We can see that Nvidia moat cover both hardware and software which have made their dominance to continue as AI demand continue to grow despite market uncertainity.

Even after some corrections, the overall narrative around AI remains incredibly bullish. Analysts continue to raise price targets, with some seeing significant upside potential. This constant stream of positive news and projections keeps the stock in the spotlight.

Investors who missed out on the initial massive gains in 2023 and early 2024 are now watching Nvidia continue to climb, creating a powerful incentive to buy in, even at higher prices, rather than risk being left behind.

Positive News Flow and Catalysts

Nvidia's news cycle is robust. Recent positive developments include:

Strong Earnings Reports: Nvidia has consistently beaten earnings estimates, reinforcing investor confidence in its financial performance. The latest earnings report (May 2025) continued this trend.

New Product Launches & Roadmaps: The company continues to innovate with new chip architectures (like Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin platform) and systems (like NVLink Fusion silicon). These announcements generate excitement about future revenue streams.

Major Deals and Partnerships: Nvidia is securing massive deals to build AI supercomputers and infrastructure globally, such as the Department of Energy supercomputer, CoreWeave's GPU cluster, and collaborations with sovereign AI initiatives (e.g., Saudi Arabia's HUMAIN). These underline the massive demand for its technology.

Analyst Upgrades and High Price Targets: Wall Street analysts are largely bullish on Nvidia, with many maintaining "Strong Buy" ratings and setting ambitious price targets. These upgrades often serve as a signal for retail and institutional investors alike.

Market Cap and Indexing Impact

Nvidia's soaring stock price has propelled its market capitalization to unprecedented levels, making it one of the largest companies in the world.

Because major indices and ETFs (like the S&P 500) are market-cap weighted, as Nvidia's value increases, these funds are required to buy more of its stock to maintain their weighting. This passive buying pressure creates a positive feedback loop: higher prices lead to more index buying, which pushes prices even higher. This "indexing effect" can exacerbate FOMO as investors realize that large, diversified funds are actively accumulating NVDA.

Technical Factors

After periods of correction (like the April 2025 pullback), a strong rebound can trigger technical buying signals. When the stock breaks above key resistance levels or shows bullish momentum indicators (like MACD crossovers or moving average trends), it attracts traders and investors who follow technical analysis. This creates a "buy the breakout" mentality that can be driven by FOMO.

Analysts have been raising targets since the FQ1 earnings report and are leading to the high-end range, a move to $200 to $220, or about 20% at the consensus of $171 and nearly 60% at the top end.

A move to the top end could happen quickly, as news headlines accelerate a positive feedback loop in which higher prices underscore the gains that average investors are missing and the potential still present in the market.

Perception as the "Pure Play" AI Leader

While many companies benefit from AI, Nvidia is widely perceived as the purest and most dominant play on the AI revolution. This makes it an attractive investment for anyone wanting direct exposure to the booming AI market. As AI continues to dominate headlines, Nvidia naturally benefits from the investor enthusiasm.

How FOMO works in this context

Investors, both retail and institutional, see Nvidia's sustained ascent and the constant stream of positive news. They observe the stock's outperformance relative to the broader market and other tech companies. This can create a psychological pressure to buy, not necessarily based solely on a deep fundamental valuation, but also on the fear of missing out on further substantial gains. The thought process might be: "Everyone else is making money on Nvidia, if I do not buy now, I will regret it later." This creates a self-fulfilling prophecy in the short term, as increased buying due to FOMO further pushes up the price.

Summary

While Nvidia's underlying business fundamentals are exceptionally strong, FOMO is undoubtedly playing a significant role in accelerating and amplifying its current share price rebound.

Fundamental and technical factors aside, the rebound is helping NVIDIA regain its position in terms of market cap and stock size, bringing another factor into play: FOMO. FOMO, or the fear of missing out.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Nvidia could see another rally with FOMO continue to be in play.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.