To The Moon

A June 9 report by Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Mark Delaney, states that autonomous vehicles in North America have officially entered commercialization. By 2030, robotaxis are expected to claim a $7 billion share in the U.S. ride-hailing market. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Shift in Focus: From Feasibility to Growth

With over 1,500 Waymo robotaxis already in operation and Tesla aiming to launch its service in Austin this month, the conversation is shifting from "Is it possible?" to "How fast will it grow?"

Robotaxi Surge: From $300M in 2025 to $7B in 2030

Goldman forecasts the U.S. ride-hailing market will grow from $58B to over $336B by 2030. Robotaxis are projected to grow from $300M in 2025 (less than 1%) to $7B (8%) in 2030—a ~90% CAGR.

Waymo Leads, Tesla Joins the Race

Waymo, with 1,500 vehicles operating in cities like Phoenix and San Francisco, completes over 250,000 paid rides weekly. Tesla is set to launch its robotaxi service in Austin, competing directly.

Uber & Lyft May Pivot

Goldman expects traditional platforms like Uber and Lyft to shift to asset-light models, integrating third-party fleets. Uber has partnered with 18 AV tech firms including Waymo and Mobileye; Lyft with May Mobility.

Cost Declines Drive Scale

Goldman sees falling costs per mile as the enabler for scaling robotaxi fleets to 35,000 vehicles in the U.S. by 2030.

Heavy Trucks: The Next Frontier

Level 8 heavy-duty trucks are also in focus. Though still a small portion of the market, their potential to cut costs and run longer is compelling. Goldman predicts 25,000 AV trucks on U.S. roads by 2030, tapping into a $18B freight opportunity.