To The Moon

$Webull Corp(BULL)$

WeBull (Ticker: BULL) 2 week ago reported earnings. After climbing as much as 7% during the trading session, the stock is now sliding lower. In this articles, we’re going to break down the company’s earnings, review the business fundamentals, talk about the SPAC merger, and finally ask the big question—is WeBull a buy at current levels?**

Earnings Overview

WeBull reported strong top-line growth:

• Revenue increased 32% year-over-year to $117 million, slightly beating analyst expectations.

• EPS came in at a loss of $0.06, roughly in line with estimates.

• Notably, management provided no forward guidance, which might be contributing to some of the post-market weakness.

On the profitability side:

• Adjusted operating margin came in at 24.4%, translating to $28.7 million in adjusted operating profit—a sharp improvement from just $2.3 million a year ago.

• GAAP net income was $13.1 million, an 11.1% margin, showing the company is beginning to turn the corner toward profitability.

Key Business Metrics

WeBull continues to scale well:

• Registered users grew 17% YoY, now sitting at 24.1 million.

• Funded accounts were up 10% YoY, with a 97.5% quarterly retention rate.

That said, there's a slight concern here: the slower growth in funded accounts compared to registered users may suggest users are signing up just to collect incentives without actually depositing funds. This could also be a timing issue, so we’ll want to monitor how these two metrics trend in the next couple of quarters.

Trading activity also looked solid:

• Equity notional trading volume rose 15% YoY

• Options contract volume increased 8% YoY

These activity levels helped drive a 50% YoY increase in trading-related revenue, thanks to both higher volumes and improved monetization.

We also saw strength in daily average revenue trades (DARTs) which hit 924,000. Most of WeBull’s revenue continues to come from options trading, followed by equity commissions and platform fees.

Deposits & Assets

Customer assets surged 45% YoY, although there was a sequential decline in Q1 due to market volatility. Still, net deposits were up 66% YoY, reaching $5 billion over the last 12 months—a strong vote of confidence in the platform, especially given WeBull's relatively short track record internationally.

Expense Management & Profitability

WeBull is showing signs of operational leverage:

• Operating expenses fell 2.3% YoY, from $98 million to $96 million,

• This drove GAAP net income from a $12.5 million loss to a $12.9 million profit—an impressive turnaround.

However, a $21 million one-time preferred share redemption related to the SPAC transaction pushed net income attributable to shareholders to a loss of $8.6 million or -$0.06 per share. Shares outstanding rose modestly from 137 million to 139 million YoY, signaling light dilution.

2025 Product Roadmap

The company laid out a product roadmap instead of issuing financial guidance. For Q2 2025, they plan to:

• Launch crypto trading in select international markets (e.g., Australia, the UK, Europe)

• Add advanced options strategies abroad

• Introduce corporate bond trading on the platform

• Roll out the WeBull app in Latin America, a major growth market

In Q3, they’re looking to:

• Support extended hours trading for index options

• Launch operations in the Netherlands

By Q4, they plan to:

• Relaunch crypto trading in the U.S.

• Introduce mutual fund trading

Clearly, WeBull is aggressively expanding both geographically and in terms of product offerings, setting up for continued growth into 2026.

Webull Customer Overview

Webull has rapidly established itself as a major player in the online brokerage space, attracting millions of users worldwide. The company’s growth trajectory in both registered users and funded accounts reflects its expanding reach and appeal to retail investors.

Registered Users

As of early 2025, Webull boasts over 23 to 24 million registered users globally. This figure represents all individuals who have signed up for an account on the platform, regardless of whether their accounts are funded or actively trading. The company’s user base has shown consistent growth over the past few years. For example, in early 2024, Webull reported roughly 20 million registered users, indicating an increase of approximately 15-20% in just over a year.

Registered users are a key metric because they represent the platform’s total addressable customer base. These users have shown interest in the platform, have gone through the account creation process, and may be poised to become funded traders. However, simply registering is not the same as actively investing or trading, so this number must be evaluated alongside funded accounts for a clearer picture of actual engagement.

Funded Accounts

More important than raw registrations are funded accounts—accounts with actual deposited capital that users can trade with. By the end of 2023, Webull had approximately 4.3 million funded accounts, collectively managing assets around $8.2 billion. This is a significant milestone because it reflects real customer commitment and platform monetization potential.

By the first quarter of 2025, the number of funded accounts had grown to 4.7 million, representing a 10% year-over-year increase. This growth is a positive sign that Webull is successfully converting registered users into active investors who commit funds to the platform.

The ratio of funded accounts to registered users, roughly 1 in 5, is a critical metric for assessing engagement quality. While a large registered user base can indicate interest and potential, the funded accounts show where actual revenue and trading volume are generated. Improving this conversion ratio will be key to sustained revenue growth.

Assets Under Management and Customer Deposits

The assets under management (AUM) in funded accounts is another important indicator of the platform’s scale and financial health. As of late 2023, Webull’s funded accounts managed about $8.2 billion in assets. This figure reflects the total value of customer portfolios, including cash deposits, equities, options positions, and other investments held on the platform.

Customer deposits have been growing robustly, driven by strong market interest and Webull’s competitive product offerings such as commission-free trading, user-friendly mobile apps, and expanded product features like options and crypto trading.

Strong inflows into funded accounts support higher trading volumes, increased platform revenue, and the ability to invest further in new product launches and market expansions.

Growth Trends and User Engagement

From late 2023 to early 2025, Webull’s overall registered user base expanded by approximately 15-20%, while funded accounts grew at a slower but still solid pace of around 10%. This difference in growth rates highlights a challenge common to many fintech platforms: attracting new users versus converting those users into funded and active traders.

The platform’s high retention rate (reported around 97.5% quarterly retention for funded accounts) suggests that once users fund their accounts, most tend to stay engaged. However, the slightly slower growth in funded accounts relative to registrations indicates there may be some users who sign up for incentives or exploratory purposes but delay or decide against funding their accounts.

Webull’s continued product enhancements—such as adding cryptocurrency trading in international markets, corporate bonds, mutual funds, and expanding to new geographies like Latin America and Europe—are designed to drive further engagement, increase funded account growth, and broaden the customer base.

Valuation Analysis

Valuing WeBull is tricky given the early-stage nature of the business and uncertainty around share count.

• Management reports 137 million shares outstanding, but accounting for future dilution, the real count may be closer to 461 million.

• I modeled a 32% operating cash flow margin by 2029, up from the current ~17.4%.

  Based on these assumptions, WeBull would generate $244 million in operating cash flow in 2029.

  At a 25x multiple, that implies an enterprise value around $6 billion.

  After subtracting net debt and dividing by fully diluted shares, the implied 2029 stock price is about $13, which is roughly where the stock trades now.

Discounting this back at a 15% rate, today’s fair value would be around $6.55, implying the stock is currently overvalued.

Conclusion

Webull’s impressive growth in registered users and funded accounts underscores its success in capturing retail investor interest. However, the disparity between registered users and funded accounts highlights the ongoing challenge of converting interest into actual trading activity and assets under management.

The platform’s ability to grow funded accounts steadily, maintain high retention, and increase assets under management will be critical for its long-term profitability and competitive positioning.

Given Webull’s aggressive product roadmap and international expansion plans, it is well-positioned to deepen engagement and capture greater market share. Watching how the company improves the conversion rate and expands AUM in the coming quarters will be key for investors and users alike.

WeBull’s SPAC IPO launched the stock from $10 to $85, but it has since corrected sharply and is now consolidating around the $10-13 range. This appears to be a key support level.

From here:

• If you’re looking to build a position, it may be smart to wait until next week to see how the market digests the earnings.

• If the stock can hold and build momentum off this support, a retest of the $19 zone is plausible.

• However, a drop to $10 is still on the table.

Bottom line: Technically, the setup is attractive, but fundamentally the valuation is still rich. It may be worth waiting for another quarter or two to establish a more reliable financial baseline before making a long-term investment decision.

Disclaimer: I want to make it clear that I am not a financial advisor, and nothing I say is intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Additionally, it's important to remember that there are no guarantees or certainties in trading or investing, and you should never invest money that you can't afford to lose.

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