π§ FOMC Showdown: Is This Where the Bull Breaks or Bounces?
The Fed isn't expected to cut this week β but that's not the real story.
All eyes are on the dot plot.
Because in 2024β25, the market doesn't move on reality.
It moves on expectations.
π What Traders Need to Watch
π Fewer than 2 cuts forecasted β hawkish surprise β market pullback
π 2β3 cuts expected β aligns with soft landing thesis β bullish continuation
π 4+ cuts projected β market might cheerβ¦ but ask yourself: why so aggressive?
π§ Key Trade Setup
Trade Setup Risk
SPY Short into Fed if dot plot surprises hawkish Strong macro data = sticky inflation fears
QQQ Long if dot plot = 3 cuts + dovish Powell tone Tech rebound could lead next leg
TLT (Bonds) Add exposure if market believes 'higher for longer' is fading Great risk-reward as rate expectations shift.
π¬ My View:
π The Fed holds. Powell stays vague. Dot plot shows 2β3 cuts.
That = chop zone this week.
But don't underestimate: the first whisper of a confirmed pivot will trigger a rally like no other.
π― Final Thought
Forget what the Fed says.
Watch what the market believes.
That's where the alpha hides.
#FedDecision #DotPlot #BullMarket #FOMC #Powell #SPY #QQQ #MacroWatch
I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!
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- HiTALKΒ·06-18Great analysis1Report