To The Moon

The GENIUS Act just passed the Senate—but does that mean Circle’s rally has peaked, or just begun?

On 17 June, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act with a solid 68–30 majority. That’s a bipartisan cheer for stablecoin regulation and a potential structural shift in how digital dollars are treated in the U.S. economy. At the heart of this tectonic shift is Circle—issuer of USDC—which has wasted no time capitalising on the regulatory clarity.

In fact, Circle beat the news to the punch. On 5 June, it debuted on the NYSE under the ticker $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$, opening at $31 and soaring to an intraday high of $103.75. Now sporting a market cap of roughly $22 billion, the company’s timing was nothing short of—well—genius.

But with the GENIUS Act now Senate-approved and Circle basking in its public market debut, I find myself wondering: is this the top of the arc, or just the first parabola?

Momentum meets mandate in Circle’s orbit around regulation

The GENIUS of GENIUS (and What Comes Next)

The GENIUS Act isn’t law yet—it still needs to pass through the House of Representatives—but its Senate approval sends a strong signal: the U.S. is finally serious about regulating fiat-backed stablecoins. For Circle, this is an unambiguous win. The Act requires issuers to maintain full reserves, conduct frequent audits, and submit to Federal Reserve supervision—effectively bringing stablecoins under the same regulatory umbrella as traditional financial instruments.

That’s regulatory rocket fuel for Circle, whose entire pitch rests on being the "compliant" stablecoin alternative. With many institutional players hesitant to touch offshore-issued assets like Tether, Circle’s new badge of legitimacy is worth more than any marketing budget.

But here’s the rub: Circle’s spectacular post-IPO rally didn’t happen by accident. Much of this legislative optimism had already been priced in—or at least strongly anticipated—by the market. With that tailwind now partially realised, the forward outlook shifts from potential to performance.

Circle’s Valuation: Rich, Rational, or Both?

Trading around $22 billion, Circle is now firmly in the big leagues. But is the valuation justified?

USDC’s market cap stands at approximately $61.6 billion, backed by reserves that are primarily short-term U.S. Treasuries. With the Fed still holding rates above 5%, Circle is raking in juicy interest income on those assets. Analysts estimate the company could be generating between $900 million and $1.2 billion annually in net interest revenue alone—making it one of the few fintech firms currently riding the macro cycle instead of being crushed beneath it.

That gives $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ an implied P/E ratio in the 18–24x range, depending on where its forward earnings land. Not outrageous for a newly public tech-adjacent financial infrastructure company. And let’s be honest—there’s not a lot of growth equity with yield exposure in this market.

The chart below reveals how Circle’s IPO story isn’t just about valuation—it’s a technical breakout wrapped in regulatory momentum.

Momentum meets conviction where liquidity found its price signal

Still, Circle’s top-line is tied to the Fed, not just to adoption. A 100 basis point rate cut could slice off $200–300 million in annual earnings. Not fatal, but certainly sobering. It’s the digital equivalent of running a bank without lending—elegant in a bull cycle, exposed in a rate pivot.

The Stablecoin Wars: Size Still Matters

Let’s talk dominance. USDC’s growth has been solid but far from spectacular. Its $61.6 billion market cap pales in comparison to Tether’s $155 billion, which still commands about 62% of the stablecoin market. Yes, USDC remains the institutionally preferred asset, but Tether continues to dominate retail flows, especially in emerging markets.

Total stablecoin market cap now exceeds $251 billion, and while Circle is gaining ground in the U.S., the global battle is still being fought—and not necessarily on compliant soil. The GENIUS Act may help domestically, but Circle will need more than policy tailwinds to chip away at Tether’s foothold in Asia, Latin America, and decentralised finance protocols.

No Longer Pre-IPO, but Still Pre-Profit Diversification

With its IPO now behind it, Circle has opened a new chapter—but the market will quickly want more than interest income and regulatory goodwill. To maintain its multiple, Circle needs to show progress on product diversification: global remittances, treasury services for institutions, tokenised assets, or payments infrastructure.

So far, the pitch is promising. But promises don’t fill earnings calls.

The big question is whether Circle’s public listing was timed to perfection—or just perfectly timed to capitalise on peak sentiment. Yes, the GENIUS Act gives Circle a moat, but the IPO has already monetised part of that moat. The next act needs to show moat expansion—not just management.

So, Should You Sell the News?

If you were lucky enough to grab Circle shares near the IPO price, you’ve got reason to consider locking in some gains—particularly after a triple-digit pop. The GENIUS Act’s passage through the Senate is a fundamental shift, but the easy money, for now, has arguably been made.

That said, I’m holding a core position. $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ now sits in a uniquely strategic position: regulated, listed, profitable, and highly scalable. There aren’t many crypto-native firms that can say the same—and even fewer that will benefit more directly from stablecoin integration into traditional finance.

The next leg up will need to be earned—through execution, partnerships, and product vision. But the regulatory runway is clear.

Beyond buzz—Circle’s future pivots on precise execution

Verdict: From Genius Timing to Smart Execution

Circle didn’t just go public—it went public at the perfect moment, surfing a wave of regulatory momentum and macro tailwinds. The GENIUS Act adds legitimacy, but also raises expectations. This is no longer a speculative play on regulation—it’s a publicly traded, revenue-generating, policy-aligned infrastructure company.

Yes, the “sell the news” crowd may take profits—and no one ever went broke doing that. But for long-term investors, Circle now offers something rare: a compliant, interest-earning, yield-levered crypto firm with actual enterprise prospects.

Genius? Perhaps. But from here on out, it’ll have to be execution, not timing, that keeps this Circle intact.

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