To The Moon

On 18 June 2025, the stock market appeared stable though it experienced a largely mixed performance following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady.

Investors were primarily focused on the Fed's updated economic projections and their implications for future monetary policy.

Initial jobless claims marginally declined to 245,000, potentially indicating steady nonfarm payroll growth. Housing starts fell to their lowest since May 2020, with notable declines in both starts and permits.

Overall Market Performance

S&P 500 (SPX): Remained largely flat, closing down a fractional 0.03% at 5,980.87.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Slipped slightly, down 0.1% to 42,171.66.

Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): Showed modest gains, rising 0.1% to 19,546.27.

Russell 2000 (Small Caps): Outperformed, climbing 0.52% to 2,112.96, suggesting a rotation into riskier small-cap assets.

S&P 500 Sector Analysis

The S&P 500's relatively flat performance masked significant divergence among its sectors:

Technology: Continued to show momentum, supported by chipmakers and growth-focused ETFs. Notable gainers included Intel (+3.32%), Super Micro Computer (+3.15%), and Marvell Technology (+7%). Nvidia, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Apple also saw modest gains.

Financials: Weighed on the index, with payment card giants Mastercard (-5.38%) and Visa (-4.89%) leading the decliners. This was primarily due to concerns about potential regulatory scrutiny and the implications of newly passed legislation promoting stablecoins, which could allow merchants to bypass traditional card-based payment systems. Other payment processors like Corpay and Paycom Software also saw declines.

Consumer Discretionary: Showed mixed performance. While some fintech names like SoFi Technologies (+6.51%) and Robinhood Markets (+4.54%) rallied on optimism, other areas of consumer discretionary were not as strong.

Industrials/Defense: Companies like Lockheed Martin (-2.24%) were pressured by defense budget uncertainty and profit-taking.

Healthcare: Mixed, with some companies like Zoetis (-4.1%) falling after downgrades due to slowing growth in key segments.

Federal Reserve Insights

The Federal Reserve's policy announcement on June 18, 2025, was the key driver of market sentiment:

Interest Rates: As widely expected, the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with no change, reflecting a cautious, data-driven approach.

Economic Projections: The Fed's updated projections revealed a more cautious outlook:

Inflation: The 2025 inflation forecast was slightly revised upward to 3.0% (from 2.8% in March).

GDP Growth: The outlook for economic growth in 2025 was lowered to 1.4% (from 1.7% in March).

Unemployment Rate: Nudged higher to 4.5% for 2025.

"Dot Plot" and Rate Cuts: The "dot plot" indicated a slower easing path than previously anticipated, with most participants now expecting only two rate cuts in 2025 (compared to earlier projections that might have suggested more). A growing number of members even foresee no rate cuts in 2024 at all.

Chairman Powell's Comments: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need to monitor the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports before making further decisions on interest rates. He noted that while economic uncertainty had diminished somewhat, it "remains elevated." Powell also indicated that the labor market was not currently a major source of inflationary pressure.

Market Interpretation: The market's reaction was cautious. While a rate pause was expected, the delayed expectations for rate cuts and the upward revision of inflation forecasts led to a mixed performance across equity indices and sectors. The Fed's "wait and see" mode regarding the impact of tariffs and other economic signals suggested a bumpy road ahead for businesses and investors, with high borrowing costs potentially leading to lower corporate profits and reduced stock valuations.

Stocks To Watch

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ reportedly offered up to $100 million in signing bonuses to lure top AI talent from OpenAI, according to CEO Sam Altman. Despite these aggressive offers, Altman claims none of OpenAI's key employees have accepted. Meta's strategy includes significant investments in AI, such as a $14.3 billion stake in Scale AI, as it seeks to enhance its competitive edge in the AI sector.

Investor sentiment for Meta Platforms (META) following its aggressive attempts to lure top AI talent from OpenAI with offers up to $100 million has been mixed but cautiously optimistic.

While the massive spending highlights Meta's commitment to AI and its urgency to compete, the fact that OpenAI's "best people" haven't accepted these offers raises questions about Meta's innovation culture versus OpenAI's mission-driven environment. Investors are watching closely to see if these substantial investments translate into tangible AI product breakthroughs and market leadership, or if they're simply a costly part of an intense talent war.

Though we are seeing positive strong momentum in META share price, but it have shown signs of sideways trading and investors remain mixed but cautiously optimistic about its share price, we might not see much movement in META share price over the next few weeks.

$JD.com(JD)$ founder Richard Liu outlined a turnaround plan to recover from what he described as the company's "darkest period" following a government crackdown. JD.com plans to leverage its logistics network to expand into new areas like meal delivery and compete with Meituan in travel services. The company also aims to launch its e-commerce platform in Europe by 2026, signaling a strategic shift to regain growth momentum.

JD.com's share price has been on a decline recently, largely due to intensifying competition in China's e-commerce and instant retail markets. Meituan, a key rival, has pledged aggressive expansion in food delivery, directly challenging JD.com's nascent "JD Takeaway" service. This fierce competition is leading to increased spending on subsidies and recruitment by JD.com, which could impact profitability. Additionally, sluggish consumer spending in China and broader concerns about the Chinese economy have contributed to investor caution.

The weak momentum as seen from RSI have seen the bears in control since April, and this might continue as currently JD is trading below the 26-EMA, and with the sluggish consumer spending in China, we might see further decline in JD.com share price.

$Hyatt(H)$ completed its $2.6 billion acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA, Financial), expanding its all-inclusive resort portfolio. The deal includes 15 resorts in prime beach destinations, enhancing Hyatt's global presence. The acquisition is expected to be accretive, with plans to fund the purchase through new debt financing and asset sales.

$Array Technologies Inc.(ARRY)$ announced its acquisition of APA Solar for approximately $179 million. The deal, expected to close in Q3 2025, will allow ARRAY to offer an integrated solar tracker and foundation system. This strategic move is anticipated to boost ARRAY's earnings per share and expand its product offerings in the solar industry.

Airbus secured an order for six A350-900 aircraft from EgyptAir, adding to a previous order of 10 A350-900s. The first delivery is scheduled for December 2025. This order highlights Airbus's continued success at the Paris Air Show and strengthens its position in the competitive aviation market.

$Oracle(ORCL)$ received a price target increase from Guggenheim to $250, the highest on Wall Street, following strong quarterly results. Analyst John DiFucci noted Oracle's potential for significant revenue acceleration in FY26 and FY27, driven by decades of technological innovation and strategic positioning in the cloud and AI sectors.

Oracle's recent strong earnings were a primary driver of its strong share price performance. The company reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings, with cloud infrastructure revenue soaring by 52% and robust forecasts for continued strong growth in its cloud and AI segments in fiscal 2026. This positive outlook, including a projected 70%+ growth in Cloud Infrastructure, fueled investor confidence.

Whether it can continue depends on Oracle's execution in meeting this accelerated cloud and AI demand amidst intense competition. The high valuation means flawless execution is critical. ORCL have a strong positive momentum after its earnings and it continue to build a nice uptrend, and the bulls are building a daily uptrend continuation, which should continue to bring Oracle to new highs.

Summary

With the stock market remaining stable despite geopolitical and Fed factor adding complexity, I would expect the market to experience a mixed trading on 20 June 2025 when it return from the short holiday, we could be seeing some selling off (or rather profit taking) in some sectors.

But there should be some good potential opportunities in some good quality stock to pick up when the share price tend to be lower now. I will be watching closely on the technology sector.

Also look out for stable coins regulation development which might help some crypto stocks to gain ground as well.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think market would give a mixed performance to close the week in a low green.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.