Debts, Recession & CRE - News and my thoughts from last week (23Jun25)
News and my thoughts from last week (23Jun25)
US households, mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign investors' financial allocation to stocks hit a RECORD 53%. This is larger than at the Dot-Com Bubble peak of 51%. - X user Global Markets Investor
US household net worth dropped by -$1.6 TRILLION in Q1 2025, to $169 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2024. This was the largest quarterly decrease since Q3 2022, according to Fed data. The drop was primarily driven by a -$2.3 trillion loss in the value of household equity holdings. Real estate values also declined by -$200 billion, marking the 3rd consecutive quarterly drop. However, this quarter, equity markets have rebounded and recovered a significant portion of these losses. US household wealth is highly exposed to the stock market. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
"I don't trust OpenAI and Sam Altman. I don't think we want to have the most powerful AI in the world controlled by someone who is not trustworthy," - Elon Musk.
Japanese insurers' unrealised LOSSES are HUGE: The biggest insurers’ paper losses on their domestic bond holdings hit a record ¥8.5 TRILLION ($60B) in Q1. Nippon Life, largest insurer and the world’s 6th-largest saw ¥3.6TN ($25B) LOSS. - X user Global Markets Investor
US household debt jumped $167 billion, to a record $18.2 TRILLION in Q1 2025. Household debt has surged by a MASSIVE $7 TRILLION over the last 12 years. In Q1, mortgage debt rose $199 billion to a record $12.8 trillion Student debt also hit record. - X user Global Markets Investor
Q1/25 saw a $46.8B jump in commercial and multifamily mortgage debt, nudging the total to an all-time high of $4.81T, according to the MBA. Multifamily debt alone now stands at $2.16T, up 0.9% from the previous quarter. - CRE Daily
39% of people say financial limitations prevented them from having a child - BBC
CEOs are anticipating a recession in the US: 83% of 133 surveyed CEOs expect a recession over the next 12-18 months, in line with 2022 levels. 12% expect a deep US recession with material global spillover. Are massive layoffs coming in the US? - X user Global Markets Investor
Middle East tension is distracting everyone from the fact that we have 0 trade deals and likely not even close to one (except for the UK).
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