📉 $CRCL: Is Sub-$100 Fair Value Realistic? Or Just Fear Talking?-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

4
1
Favorite

📉 $CRCL: Is Sub-$100 Fair Value Realistic? Or Just Fear Talking?

Isleigh
2025-07-06

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$

Circle ($CRCL) is under heavy fire after Goldman Sachs slapped a $83 PT, citing structural pressure from falling interest rates. With $USDC revenue pegged to yield spreads, the logic is simple: as rates fall, so do returns on reserves.

But let's take a trader's view — not just a macro theorist's.

🔍 What's weighing on Circle:

🏦 Lower Fed rates = lower yield on Circle’s $30B+ reserves

🧊 No clear moat: Competition from PayPal stablecoin, CBDCs, and on-chain treasuries

⚖️ Regulatory limbo: Stablecoin Act delayed = less clarity = less inflow

🚀 But here's the bull case:

🔁 Return of risk-on sentiment as BTC reclaims $65k

🔐 Circle's partnerships with Visa, Coinbase, BlackRock still in place

🪙 If stablecoin adoption jumps (USDC in RWAs, remittances), fee growth could outpace rate compression

📉 Is $100 the right floor?

Yes if macro drag persists + no BTC breakout + regulation stalls

No if USDC circulation grows + crypto cycle revives + yield curve steepens late 2025

🎯 Tactical Setup

Buy: Long at $160–165 support zone, targeting $200 on BTC strength

Hedge: Bear put spread $160/$120 to manage downside

Lotto: $200C July 12 if Stablecoin Act resurfaces & BTC surges

📌 Valuation is narrative-driven in crypto. Price can overshoot both ways — but traders win by reacting, not overreacting.

I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

# Circle Dumping Risk? Cash Out at $150 or Time to Bottom?

Modify on 2025-07-06 19:34

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

4

Report

Comment（1）

Top
Latest

HilaryWilde
·2025-07-07
Great analysis
Reply
Like
Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":453633926479872,"tweetId":"453633926479872","gmtCreate":1751772844495,"gmtModify":1751884738951,"gmtUserModify":1751801679545,"author":{"id":4147681045299222,"idStr":"4147681045299222","authorId":4147681045299222,"authorIdStr":"4147681045299222","name":"Isleigh","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.11","exceedPercentage":"93.83%","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8-1","templateUuid":"9427a906234c4b18a82ec3d7730b7fa8","name":"Star Contributor","description":"Published at least 3 PICK posts (or 10 IDEA posts) and, within the past 30 days, posted at least 1 PICK post (or 4 IDEA posts) and 1 comment","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.01.19","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":500,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"816ae028c2a2470ab43d3c5817628419","categoryId":"7a15628ce2174325bddc6229505e0d70","name":"Circle Dumping Risk? Cash Out at $150 or Time to Bottom?","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":816ae028c2a2470ab43d3c5817628419}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"Circle beats revenue but fell as it 5% as it files to sell 10M shares of Class A common stock.\nCircle reported a net loss of $482 million in the second quarter, compared with a $33 million profit a year ago.\nRevenue increased by 53% to $658 million, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $646 million.","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/92de77f63e0c9e5cf906ba32f27eb79f"}],"images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e9ab935c72d10243064858898df709","width":"1024","height":"1536"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e9ab935c72d10243064858898df709","width":"1024","height":"1536"}],"title":"\n📉 $CRCL: Is Sub-$100 Fair Value Realistic? Or Just Fear Talking?","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e9ab935c72d10243064858898df709\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1536\"><span></span></p>\n<p>Circle ($CRCL) is under heavy fire after Goldman Sachs slapped a $83 PT, citing structural pressure from falling interest rates. With $USDC revenue pegged to yield spreads, the logic is simple: as rates fall, so do returns on reserves.</p>\n<p>But let's take a trader's view — not just a macro theorist's.</p>\n<p>🔍 What's weighing on Circle:</p>\n<p>🏦 Lower Fed rates = lower yield on Circle’s $30B+ reserves</p>\n<p>🧊 No clear moat: Competition from PayPal stablecoin, CBDCs, and on-chain treasuries</p>\n<p>⚖️ Regulatory limbo: Stablecoin Act delayed = less clarity = less inflow</p>\n<p>🚀 But here's the bull case:</p>\n<p>🔁 Return of risk-on sentiment as BTC reclaims $65k</p>\n<p>🔐 Circle's partnerships with Visa, Coinbase, BlackRock still in place</p>\n<p>🪙 If stablecoin adoption jumps (USDC in RWAs, remittances), fee growth could outpace rate compression</p>\n<p>📉 Is $100 the right floor?</p>\n<p>Yes if macro drag persists + no BTC breakout + regulation stalls</p>\n<p>No if USDC circulation grows + crypto cycle revives + yield curve steepens late 2025</p>\n<p>🎯 Tactical Setup</p>\n<p>Buy: Long at $160–165 support zone, targeting $200 on BTC strength</p>\n<p>Hedge: Bear put spread $160/$120 to manage downside</p>\n<p>Lotto: $200C July 12 if Stablecoin Act resurfaces &amp; BTC surges</p>\n<p>📌 Valuation is narrative-driven in crypto. Price can overshoot both ways — but traders win by reacting, not overreacting.</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ </a>&nbsp;</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\" style=\"display: flex; flex-direction: column; align-items: center;\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/26e9ab935c72d10243064858898df709\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"1536\"><span></span></p>\n<p>Circle ($CRCL) is under heavy fire after Goldman Sachs slapped a $83 PT, citing structural pressure from falling interest rates. With $USDC revenue pegged to yield spreads, the logic is simple: as rates fall, so do returns on reserves.</p>\n<p>But let's take a trader's view — not just a macro theorist's.</p>\n<p>🔍 What's weighing on Circle:</p>\n<p>🏦 Lower Fed rates = lower yield on Circle’s $30B+ reserves</p>\n<p>🧊 No clear moat: Competition from PayPal stablecoin, CBDCs, and on-chain treasuries</p>\n<p>⚖️ Regulatory limbo: Stablecoin Act delayed = less clarity = less inflow</p>\n<p>🚀 But here's the bull case:</p>\n<p>🔁 Return of risk-on sentiment as BTC reclaims $65k</p>\n<p>🔐 Circle's partnerships with Visa, Coinbase, BlackRock still in place</p>\n<p>🪙 If stablecoin adoption jumps (USDC in RWAs, remittances), fee growth could outpace rate compression</p>\n<p>📉 Is $100 the right floor?</p>\n<p>Yes if macro drag persists + no BTC breakout + regulation stalls</p>\n<p>No if USDC circulation grows + crypto cycle revives + yield curve steepens late 2025</p>\n<p>🎯 Tactical Setup</p>\n<p>Buy: Long at $160–165 support zone, targeting $200 on BTC strength</p>\n<p>Hedge: Bear put spread $160/$120 to manage downside</p>\n<p>Lotto: $200C July 12 if Stablecoin Act resurfaces &amp; BTC surges</p>\n<p>📌 Valuation is narrative-driven in crypto. Price can overshoot both ways — but traders win by reacting, not overreacting.</p>\n<p>I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!</p></body></html>","text":"$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ Circle ($CRCL) is under heavy fire after Goldman Sachs slapped a $83 PT, citing structural pressure from falling interest rates. With $USDC revenue pegged to yield spreads, the logic is simple: as rates fall, so do returns on reserves. But let's take a trader's view — not just a macro theorist's. 🔍 What's weighing on Circle: 🏦 Lower Fed rates = lower yield on Circle’s $30B+ reserves 🧊 No clear moat: Competition from PayPal stablecoin, CBDCs, and on-chain treasuries ⚖️ Regulatory limbo: Stablecoin Act delayed = less clarity = less inflow 🚀 But here's the bull case: 🔁 Return of risk-on sentiment as BTC reclaims $65k 🔐 Circle's partnerships with Visa, Coinbase, BlackRock still in place 🪙 If stablecoin adoption jumps (USDC in RWAs, remittances), fee growth could outpace rate compression 📉 Is $100 the right floor? Yes if macro drag persists + no BTC breakout + regulation stalls No if USDC circulation grows + crypto cycle revives + yield curve steepens late 2025 🎯 Tactical Setup Buy: Long at $160–165 support zone, targeting $200 on BTC strength Hedge: Bear put spread $160/$120 to manage downside Lotto: $200C July 12 if Stablecoin Act resurfaces & BTC surges 📌 Valuation is narrative-driven in crypto. Price can overshoot both ways — but traders win by reacting, not overreacting. I'm not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/453633926479872","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["CRCL"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1158,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":454061187359248,"commentId":"454061187359248","gmtCreate":1751884990762,"gmtModify":1753155094898,"authorId":9000000000000562,"author":{"id":9000000000000562,"idStr":"9000000000000562","authorId":9000000000000562,"name":"HilaryWilde","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a24bcc27dc29a6d8ea2018519aa88251","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":453633926479872,"objectIdStr":"453633926479872","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"Great analysis","text":"Great analysis","html":"Great analysis","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}