To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ 🤖🚀📊 Wyckoff Waves, Tariff Tremors, and Tesla’s Tension ~ Volatility, Politics, and Prime Rotations in Play 📊🚀🤖

💣🚨 The week could be explosive! Think Wyckoff distribution top. We typically see a pullback before tech earnings. Pivoting will be key.

I’m heading into 07Jul25 prepared for a convergence of Treasury supply, earnings sparks, option gamma traps, and fresh political noise that could jolt complacent volatility pricing. Everything below blends live chart signals with macro headlines, open interest data, and intermarket flows so we can trade with precision, not guesswork.

The bulls still have control, but they’re flying into a tightening coil. Liquidity metrics are stalling just as the options surface turns unstable. The S&P is up over 16 % YTD, VIX is holding under 13, and intermarket divergences keep building. This is a week where complacency meets catalysts.

🌀 Monday, 07Jul25

   •   VIX futures closed $18.75 (+2.35 %), high $19.10, OI 141,741; spot dropped $16.38 (−1.56 %) suggesting forward hedging

   •   Options Flow: BigBear.ai ($BBAI) and SharpLink ($SBET) showing high call gamma; $PHH and $PAYS overbought, $CNC and $CURV oversold via RSI extremes

   •   IPO Spotlight: Cirsa debut via Blackstone at $2.95B valuation; $CHYM exits quiet period strong, $VOYG under pressure

   •   Macro Risk: Trump sends 70 % tariff notices to 12 countries; 09Jul deadline creates event risk

   •   Treasury: 13‑ and 26‑week bill auctions; poor coverage could lift 2‑year yields toward 4.95 %, pressuring megacaps and biasing vol higher

🛍️ Tuesday, 08Jul25

   •   Amazon Prime Day kicks off; I’m tracking sales/traffic data in $WMT, $TGT, $BBY, $KSS, $NEGG, $DG for early signals on margins and inventory

   •   Biotech Forum: $STTK, $TRVI, $ANIP present with potential rerate catalysts; I’ll monitor opt flow and analyst upgrades within 48 hours

   •   Uranium Spotlight: $LEU joins William Blair uranium quietly accumulating again

   •   Treasury Auctions: 6‑ and 52‑week bills settle Thursday

🧠 Wednesday, 09Jul25

   •   Samsung Galaxy Unpacked drops AI devices; knock‑on impact expected in $NVDA, $MU, $QCOM

   •   OPEC Vienna Seminar under “Pathways Together” framing; guidance on Saudi/Russia production could shift oil-linked equities

   •   Agri‑Tech: $TSN demo on machine vision; $ONDS investor day on drones, small‑cap micro catalysts primed for volatility

   •   Fed Minutes at 14:00 ET; hawkish tones could steepen curve, lift spot VIX and bust macro complacency

   •   Earnings: $PCYO and $AZZ after the close

🛫 Thursday, 10Jul25

   •   Delta ($DAL) reports 10:00 ET; key data: international load, fare guidance, $UAL, $SKYW, $ICAGY will mirror tone

   •   Walgreens ($WBA) vote 8:30 ET on Sycamore deal; options pricing implies potential 8‑point swing

   •   Treasury Barbell Supply: 10‑ and 30‑year auctions plus buyback at 11:00 ET; bid weakness signals curve steepening and bond‑equity rotation

   •   CJS Conference: $MGRC, $LCII, $PATK presentations—often overlooked sentiment drivers

   •   Earnings after-close: $LEVI, $PSMT, $WDFC, $ETWO, $VST

🧬 Friday, 11Jul25

   •   FDA Hearing on generic drug fees; catalysts for $TEVA, $MYL, $BBIO (also hosting webinar)

   •   Budget Release: June deficit near −$350B; will hit $DXY, $TLT, gold on surprise

   •   Macro Follow‑up: Congrats or failed trade deals post-09Jul deadline

🌍 Institutional Rotation: Nuveen’s Midyear Heatmap

Nuveen upgrades U.S. large caps, listed infrastructure, private credit; downgrades EM equities, IG credit, real estate debt; commodities/farmland neutral-bullish.

Take: Overweight $SPX, $PSMT; cautious around EM, yield-sensitive credits; USD dynamics critical with ongoing Treasury supply.

📉 $SPX & $VIX Technicals

   •   $SPX closed 6,279.35 (05Jul25), just under 6,284.65 resistance; breakout target 6,458.60; failure below 6,245 risks pullback to 6,000

      •   RSI(6): 76.88; MACD: +130.33; MA5: $6,079.52, MA10: $5,941.71

   •   $VIX spot 12.69, futures 18.75; RSI(6): 38.46, MACD curling; 10‑week MA 19.36

      •   A break above 19.10 likely to trigger volatility repricing higher

📦 Sector Moves

   •   Financials led +1.78 %

   •   Elevated call flow in industrials & materials

   •   Tech steady; Apple AI launch and Nvidia wedge are leading indicators

   •   Lightening consumer discretionary if yields or trade war revives

🗺️ Global Risk Radar

   •   🇨🇳 China GDP midweek

   •   🇪🇺 EU‑India trade talks at deadline

   •   🇯🇵 BOJ signals yen support; watch $USDJPY volatility

   •   🇧🇷 LATAM divergence play: long $PSMT, short $WMT

⚡ $TSLA Trade Map & Political Overlay

Price: $315.35

Gamma Profile: Resistance $350, put wall $300, HVL $310; net GEX positive above $310 flips under $293

Trade Levels:

• $328.20 daily close = momentum reclaim; scale to $343 and $369

• $293.20 = technical floor, warning of deeper drop

• $283.30 = liquidity pocket, limit orders placed

• $250.00 = 5‑year institutional memory zone

Drivers:

   •   Musk’s “America Party” risks perception and institutional scrutiny

   •   Q2 deliveries ~374,750 (−13 % YoY), but better than feared

   •   EV tax credit expires late Q3, could distort sales trend

🎯 Forward Trade Watchlist Plan

   •   Long $SPX above 6,285 targeting 6,458.60, stop 6,200

   •   Long $TSLA above 328.20, scaling to 343/369

   •   Short $QQQ on weak Fed minutes or bond auctions

   •   VIX Aug 18‑25 call spread funded by $15 put

   •   Long $PSMT, short $WMT into Thursday retail divergence

This is the most catalyst-packed week of Q3: volatility coil, macro cross-currents, political headline risk, and sector shifts are all converging. That mix favors strategic entry and structure, not passive holding.

I’m not chasing headlines, I’m trading structure. High conviction; tight risk; surgical execution, let’s crush this week Tigers!

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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