To The Moon

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ $ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 🔋🚀💰Tesla’s Six-Seat Launch Triggers Bullish Surge: $TSLA Targets $420 as Breakout Brews💰🚀🔋

Tesla isn’t waiting for the market to hand it a rebound. It’s engineering one: through a mix of smart product rollout, insider conviction, and a heavy dose of long-dated options flow that says the big money is betting on $TSLA holding $320 and climbing. This is no longer a rangebound drift; the board’s buying, funds are loading, and China is getting a custom-made Tesla to fight off Nio and Li Auto on their home turf.

And with Q2 earnings around the corner, the bulls are sharpening their horns.

📐Fundamentals: Model Y L Debuts at a Strategic Moment

Tesla’s upcoming 6-seat Model Y L is a tactical product refresh for a segment that’s heating up in the Chinese EV space. With 4,976mm length, dual motors, a 3,040mm wheelbase, and LG Energy ternary batteries under the hood, the Model Y L is longer, taller, and more premium than the standard 5-seat version. It’s expected to retail at RMB 400,000 ($55,710), positioning it well above the base Model Y and directly against Nio’s L90 and Li Auto’s upcoming Li i8.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology included the Model Y L in this week’s regulatory catalog, confirming its status ahead of Tesla’s official fall launch. As the six-seater SUV wars heat up, Tesla’s answer is calibrated and deliberate.

The market timing is no accident. Model Y sales in China are down 17.48% YTD, with June sales falling on a YoY basis despite a strong brand and local production advantage. Tesla is responding with precision, not by slashing prices blindly but by filling a premium product void before the competition can establish scale.

📊Insiders Are Loading, Not Talking

Longtime board member James Murdoch acquired 90,000 shares on 11Jul25 by exercising options at $17.47, a strike price not seen in the public market for years. His Form 4 filing confirms he’s held every single share. On paper, that’s a 1,727% gain at current market prices.

More importantly, Murdoch’s indirect holdings via JRM Rev. Trust and Seven Hills Trust now total 884,306 shares, worth roughly $311.4M. He hasn’t sold. This is real skin in the game, not PR theatre.

📦 ARK Rebuilds Its Tesla Position Ahead of Earnings

Cathie Wood’s ARK funds bought another 115,400 Tesla shares this week; their third July purchase, as $TSLA hovered near $310. The purchases came after previous trimming near $350 earlier this year. ARK’s 12-month price target remains unchanged at $2,600 by 2029, reflecting long-duration conviction in Tesla’s energy, autonomy, and mobility strategy.

When Wood buys, she’s not trading a chart; she’s buying a narrative.

📈Options Flow: Market is Positioning for a Major Breakout!

Unusual call sweeps lit up the tape this week, led by a $895.9K buy of 2,000 $420 strike calls expiring 17Jul26, at a spot price of $319.43. It wasn’t isolated. Additional sweeps on $700c (2027 expiry), $330c, and $350c continue to pour in, with total call flow volume exceeding $18.1M against just $6.7M in puts.

Put-to-call ratio sits at 0.606, with 82.3% of all flow favouring bullish bets. Institutions aren’t waiting for earnings; they’re positioning into it.

🔬Technical Picture: Wedge Complete, Now Watch $322.85

Tesla printed a bullish falling wedge on the 1H chart, with support holding cleanly at $308. The measured move from this wedge targets $336.70, then $351.90 if $322.85 is reclaimed on volume.

Price has already pierced the top of the Bollinger Band structure and rejected slightly below resistance at $321.18; the same level marking the last failed breakout. RSI is coiling just under overbought territory, with MACD crossing positive on the 4H and weekly charts.

Weekly candles show a clean reclaim of the MA20 ($293.98), and a close above the MA30 ($323.41) would confirm momentum transition. The range is tightening, and the coil looks ready to spring.

📉Macro Risks Still Loom Large

Political blowback from Musk’s polarising moves continues to weigh on global brand sentiment. Germany’s Q1 2025 Tesla market share dropped to 2.8% from 4.1% QoQ after his support of the AfD party. Norges Bank is reviewing its holdings. European fleet cancellations are real, and US sentiment has followed suit; brand favourability dropped 18 points among Democrats in the latest Harris Poll.

Q1 results also revealed margin stress: revenue fell 9% YoY, and auto margins dipped to 16.3%. Musk pulled full-year guidance. With Q2 revenue forecast at $22.869B and EPS at $0.435, investors will be hyper-focused on topline stability and autonomous updates.

📡Robotaxi Expansion Remains Core to the Thesis

The Austin pilot of 10–20 Model Ys continues in a constrained geo-fenced area. While initial enthusiasm sparked a 9.2% rally, reports of erratic driving caused a 4% pullback. The robotaxi rollout must now prove it can scale safely and communicate reliability.

If Musk updates timelines with clarity and conviction, this could reignite the autonomy premium Tesla bulls have long priced in.

🏁 Conclusion: Tesla Is Polarising, But Still Positioning for a Major Run

Tesla is doing what it always does in moments of market doubt: pushing product, securing talent, and letting insiders vote with their wallets. From a pure technical standpoint, $308 held and $322.85 is the gate. If bulls reclaim that level with earnings momentum behind them, the setup toward $351.90 and ultimately $420 becomes a credible roadmap.

The six-seat Model Y is not just another trim; it’s a wedge move in a high-stakes geopolitical chess match. ARK knows it. Murdoch knows it. The options market knows it.

I’ll be watching that $322.85 level, because when Tesla moves, it doesn’t walk, it launches.

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