To The Moon

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$ 🚀🌊🛰 ROCKET LAB IGNITION: NEUTRON IGNITES, SHORTS INCINERATED, AND I’M RIDING THIS TO ORBIT 🛰🌊🚀

$53 didn’t just break; it detonated. I’m still long with a 26.38% gain and counting.

18Jul25 NZST 🇳🇿: Rocket Lab (RKLB) has just crossed the $53 threshold with such ferocity that it’s left scorched Earth behind. While bears scramble to reprice risk, I’m sitting comfortably in the green, still holding my long from $41.83. This move is conviction-fuelled, not hype-driven. Let me show you why I’m not trimming yet.

🧠 Bollinger Partnership: The Maritime Moat Around Reusability

Rocket Lab’s deal with Bollinger Shipyards to develop an ocean landing platform for Neutron isn’t just a PR stunt; it’s a fundamental moat-builder. Vertical integration of recovery infrastructure reduces dependence on fixed launch sites, accelerates launch cadence, and lowers per-launch costs. In a capital-intensive game where reusability is make-or-break, this play echoes SpaceX’s barge-landed success model, except Rocket Lab is racing to compress that decade-long evolution into mere quarters.

And it’s not just theory. RKLB’s string of successful Electron launches in June has already begun restoring investor confidence in its cadence consistency. This maritime platform offers both optionality and leverage: logistically, technically, and financially.

📡 ESA Collaboration and Analyst Upgrades: Repricing Growth Potential

The collaboration expansion with the European Space Agency signals something deeper: RKLB is entering institutional orbit. As legacy aerospace contractors fade into bureaucratic stasis, nimble disruptors with validated flight records and scalable architecture are in demand.

That’s exactly what Bank of America recognised when it upped its target to $50, citing Neutron progress as a core growth lever. Citi followed suit, echoing confidence in RKLB’s satellite pipeline and end-to-end service model. These are not small-cap speculators; these are Tier 1 institutional re-ratings driven by underlying business model durability.

📊 Options Flow Confirms the Street is Betting Big

On the derivatives front, the options chain lit up like a Kennedy Space Center launch pad. Over 71,000 call contracts traded, 3x the expected volume, with heavy action on the Jul-25 $50 and $55 calls. Implied volatility surged 4 points to 98.87%, and the Put/Call ratio compressed to 0.35.

Translation? This is not retail FOMO. Institutions are loading directional bets, possibly front-running a blowout earnings report on 07Aug25. If this flow is predictive rather than reactive, we could see price discovery breach $60 before guidance even hits the wire.

📉 Valuation Tug-of-War: $25.78 Fair Value or Institutional Rerating?

Bearish voices continue pointing to intrinsic models that peg fair value at $25.78, implying 46% downside. That’s based on a $1.2B revenue and $59.1M profit target by 2028, requiring 41.1% CAGR.

But here’s the issue: the market isn’t trading based on linear DCFs in a frontier tech sector. Space remains narrative-driven, and narrative premium belongs to those with momentum, contracts, and visibility. RKLB now has all three.

Even community-derived fair value estimates vary wildly, from $5.82 to $70.19, which speaks less to confusion and more to a volatility-rich pricing regime where execution velocity dictates the multiple.

🛰️ Technical Picture: Vertical Ascent, Minimal Resistance

The daily chart is a masterpiece in parabolic symmetry. Since breaking above the $33.34 consolidation ceiling, RKLB has respected the 9EMA with surgical precision. Each high-volume candle has been confirmed by bullish RSI divergence and increasing amplitude.

Today’s candle pierced $53.44 with no upper wick, signalling absorption rather than rejection. This kind of verticality demands respect. With no prior supply in this price zone, the move becomes a psychological reprice rather than a grind-through resistance levels.

As of 05:25 NZST, I’m sitting on a +26.38% unrealised gain from my $41.83 long, and there’s no reason to exit into strength while the trend’s intact and macro drivers are still ahead of us.

🧩 What’s Next? Scenarios Ahead of Earnings

Scenario A: Blowout Earnings + Neutron Demonstration

Target: $62–$68

Probability: 45%

Catalyst: Revenue surprise, launch timeline confirmation, institutional upgrades.

Scenario B: Earnings Inline + Strategic Contract Win

Target: $57–$60

Probability: 35%

Catalyst: ESA expansion, new satellite partnerships, US government contract.

Scenario C: Disappointment + Execution Delay

Target: $38–$44

Probability: 20%

Catalyst: Missed cadence, delayed reusability tests, cash burn concerns.

🧨 Risks Worth Respecting

• Execution risk: Neutron is ambitious; timelines slip in aerospace with costly consequences.

• Dilution potential: If capital is raised to fund R&D, the market will quickly punish inefficient equity issuance.

• Over-optimism: The valuation curve is steep; any misstep on cadence, contracts, or tech reliability could unwind gains fast.

📈 Conclusion: This Isn’t Meme Fuel, It’s Margin of Safety on Thrust

I’m not in this for internet hype or to squeeze shorts, although they’re certainly getting torched. I’m holding my RKLB position because the business thesis, reusability, end-to-end launch solutions, and infrastructure ownership, is being executed faster than analysts had priced in. And with earnings approaching on 07Aug25, I’m staying strapped in.

The fair value debate will rage on. But from where I stand, with technicals aligned, options flowing, and a 26.38% profit already locked in, I’m happy to let this rocket burn hotter.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, Barcode 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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