To The Moon

I want returns, not regrets—so I anchor wide and tread carefully on high flyers

When it comes to investing, I’ve learnt the hard way that excitement and discipline don’t often live in the same portfolio. That’s why I now split mine between globally diversified ETFs and a select few high-growth innovators I track—but don’t always buy. I call it my “core and edge” strategy. The core keeps me safe. The edge keeps me interested. But with valuations sky-high and competitive pressures intensifying, my excitement is tempered by realism. This is not the moment for blind bets.

Stability meets speculation in one deliberately split investment view

The Safety Net: VOO and VT Keep Me Grounded

Let’s start with the core. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ and $Vanguard Total World Stock ETF(VT)$ make up the bedrock of my holdings. These are low-cost, high-efficiency vehicles that offer exposure to the biggest themes in global capitalism without trying to outsmart the market. VOO, with an expense ratio of just 0.03%, has returned 13.8% over the past year. VT, slightly more global in flavour and still dirt-cheap at 0.06%, has returned 14.4%.

But I don’t just look at past returns. I ask: what am I actually buying? VOO gives me broad exposure to American megacaps, which—despite stretched valuations—remain innovation powerhouses. VT helps spread my geopolitical and currency risk, even if recent outperformance may reflect temporary factors like a weakening dollar or rotation into emerging markets. Either way, both provide ballast, yield, and liquidity. And crucially, they give me the confidence to take calculated risks elsewhere.

Here’s how your ETF core would have performed—calm, consistent, and quietly compounding.

CrowdStrike: Fantastic Business, Fragile Valuation

One of those edge opportunities is CrowdStrike. It’s hard not to admire what they’ve built. Their Falcon platform is widely respected, their ARR has just passed $4.14 billion, and their 80% subscription gross margin is Silicon Valley gold dust. It’s also profitable on a free cash flow basis, with $1.3 billion in levered FCF and nearly $4.6 billion in cash to weather storms.

But here’s where I pause: the forward P/E sits at 135. That’s not a typo. The market is essentially pricing in perfection—flawless execution, constant growth, and no margin pressure despite intensifying competition from Microsoft, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$, and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$. Any stumble, such as the recent global outage affecting security clients, and sentiment could sour in a flash.

CrowdStrike’s price chart shows what happens when hype outruns gravity.

And let’s not pretend security customers are locked in forever. While $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ benefits from network effects, enterprise buyers routinely reassess vendors. In cybersecurity, today's moat can quickly become tomorrow's expense line. That doesn't mean I won’t ever invest—but I need to see the multiple come down, or the business prove it can accelerate profitability while scaling further into its $225 billion addressable market. Until then, it’s on the watchlist, not in the cart.

Intuitive Surgical: Dominant Today, But Tomorrow?

On the surface, $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ is one of the most enviable businesses in healthcare. Its da Vinci robotic system commands roughly 80% of the robotic-assisted surgery market. Its recurring revenue model—selling instruments and services around every installed robot—is a textbook “razor and blades” strategy that keeps the cash flowing. Last year, it generated $8.7 billion in revenue with a 28% net margin. EPS grew 28%, and it sits on $4.5 billion in cash with no long-term debt.

But again, context matters. The P/E ratio is now over 75, and while the moat appears wide, the threat of disruption looms. Competitors are investing in less invasive technologies, including single-port, natural orifice, and AI-guided techniques that could render robotic assistance a transitional stage, not an endpoint.

And here’s the sector-level risk: elective surgeries are tied to healthcare budgets, which are vulnerable to policy shifts and economic cycles. If governments or insurers cut spending, capital equipment purchases may be deferred. That introduces cyclicality into what looks like a secular growth story.

Even robotic precision has limits—this trendline reveals just how tight the margin is,

The Risks of Chasing Performance

It’s tempting to chase these names after seeing CrowdStrike soar 39% this year and Intuitive post a 151% three-year return. But that’s recency bias talking. The best time to invest in either was likely two years ago, not after everyone’s caught on. At today’s levels, I’m not buying strong businesses—I’d be speculating on continued multiple expansion in a macro environment that may not support it.

With interest rates still elevated, growth multiples could compress significantly, even if fundamentals remain strong. That’s a painful experience, and one I’ve lived through before. Valuation always matters, even for category leaders.

Strategy, Not Sentiment

So what am I actually doing? I’m keeping my exposure to these sectors via index ETFs, while selectively tracking growth names like CrowdStrike and Intuitive Surgical with clear entry and exit criteria. For me, that means:

Not initiating a position unless the valuation offers a reasonable margin of safety

Size limits: if I do enter, they won’t exceed 3–4% of my portfolio individually

Clear break points: if margin compression, growth deceleration, or new competition erode my thesis, I’ll reduce or exit

I’m also comparing them with alternatives. In cybersecurity, Zscaler or Palo Alto might offer better valuation-adjusted returns. In healthcare, Medtronic or even GE HealthCare could deliver steadier growth with less multiple risk.

Weighing growth against gravity—disciplined risk in motio

Margin of Safety Meets Market Opportunity

CrowdStrike and Intuitive Surgical are, by most measures, exceptional businesses. But that doesn’t make them exceptional investments—especially at current prices. Great companies can still be poor buys if you pay too much, and I’d rather miss a rally than catch a downturn with no room to manoeuvre.

In today’s market, I’m sticking to my blend. I lean on ETFs for broad, boring, beautiful compounding. And I keep a selective eye on high-growth leaders—ready to act, but in no rush. After all, speculation without a margin of safety isn’t strategy. It’s just hope in a hoodie.

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