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$Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ 📉💡🩺 From Underdog to Undervalued Titan: Why Oscar Health’s Earnings Could Rewrite the Narrative 🩺💡📉

📍 Earnings Countdown: Will the market finally reward fundamentals?

Oscar Health ($OSCR) is about to report earnings on 06Aug25, and if it intends to defend the lower boundary of its long-term ascending channel, this print could be pivotal. Price action has coiled tightly at $13.42, precisely where structural support intersects with rising volume shelves. With two visible gaps on the chart pointing toward $16 and $23, the technical setup is primed. But the real story? It’s the fundamentals that are screaming mispricing.

📊 Business Evolution: The metrics behind the metamorphosis

Oscar’s transformation from a loss-making insurtech to a cash-generating platform isn’t speculation; it’s quantifiable. In just five years, revenues have expanded over 16-fold from $475.6M to $8.2B, compounding at an astonishing 82% CAGR. Trailing twelve-month (LTM) revenue has now surpassed $10.1B, yet the stock trades at just 0.1x EV/revenue, one of the most compressed valuations in the entire healthcare sector.

EPS has pivoted from multi-year losses to profitability, marking +580% growth year over year. The Q1 2025 report delivered $2.14B in revenue, up 45% YoY, with positive EPS and a sharp inflection in net income, now reaching $28.9M LTM. That pivot wasn’t just a symbolic win; it confirmed operating leverage at scale.

📈 Capital Efficiency: Where growth meets discipline

What truly sets $OSCR apart in a crowded healthcare space is its capital structure. The company sits on $2.99B in cash with only $300M in debt, translating into a net cash position that dwarfs many of its higher-multiple peers. Enterprise value stands at just $796.9M; investors are effectively paying a fraction of sales and free cash flow, while the business itself generates $1.2B in LTM FCF.

This gives Oscar a free cash flow margin of 11.8% and an astonishing 958.8% FCF-to-net income ratio, underscoring its operational discipline and working capital efficiency. Even more compelling, the company is currently valued at just $3.6B in market cap against a forward revenue guide of $11.3B and accelerating member growth, now over 2 million, up from 400K in under four years.

💼 Intrinsic Value Disconnect: A Fortune 500 company priced like a startup?

Oscar recently entered the Fortune 500, a milestone that rarely aligns with a stock trading 64.5% below its estimated fair value of $22.80. The ROE has reached 10.6%, and with forward EPS growth projected at nearly 580% over the next two years, the disconnect between value and price has rarely been this stark.

At a time when the market continues to chase high-beta themes and speculative AI narratives, a company with a real business, real profits, and real cash flow is being ignored. That neglect may not last beyond this earnings report.

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