To The Moon

$Total SA(TTE)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings before the market open on Thursday, July 24, 2025.

Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share (EPS): The consensus EPS forecast for Q2 2025 is around $1.63 - $1.68. This would represent a decline compared to the $1.83 reported in Q1 2025 and the $1.98 from Q2 2024. This anticipated decline is largely due to lower average liquids and LNG selling prices compared to the previous quarter and year-ago period.

Tipranks gave the EPS estimate as $1.61 per share.

Revenue: Consensus revenue estimates are approximately $36.24 billion, indicating a notable decline from the year-ago quarter.

Analysis of Upcoming Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings

TotalEnergies' Q2 2025 performance will be closely watched for how it navigated a mixed commodity price environment, with oil prices showing a slight decrease compared to Q1, while refining margins improved. The company's diversified portfolio is key to its resilience.

Key Factors and Metrics Investors Should Watch:

Hydrocarbon Production Volumes:

Guidance: TotalEnergies expects Q2 2025 production volumes to improve in the range of 2-3% year-over-year, despite anticipated planned maintenance outages.

Watch for: Whether TTE met or exceeded this guidance. Higher production volumes, especially from new, low-cost projects, can help offset lower commodity prices and boost cash flow.

Commodity Prices (Realized):

Q2 Context: Average Brent crude prices in Q2 2025 were around $67.9/b, down from $75.7/b in Q1 2025. Average LNG selling price is expected to be around $9.1/Mbtu, down from $10.0/Mbtu in Q1.

Watch for: The actual realized prices for liquids and LNG. While headline prices are known, the specific mix of contracts and hedges can impact TotalEnergies' realized prices, which directly affects its Exploration & Production and Integrated LNG segment earnings and cash flow.

Segment Performance:

Exploration & Production (E&P): Look for commentary on production growth and how lower average liquids prices impacted profitability in this segment. The growth from new projects should be a key driver.

Integrated LNG: This segment remains crucial. While LNG prices are softer quarter-on-quarter, the overall trading performance and the stability of long-term contracts will be important. Any unexpected issues in trading, as seen in European gas trading in Q1, would be a negative.

Integrated Power: TotalEnergies expects this segment's results to be between $500 million and $550 million, with cash flow in line with annual guidance. Watch for updates on new renewable energy project developments, power purchase agreements (PPAs), and any "farm-down" activities (selling stakes in projects for capital recycling).

Refining & Chemicals: This segment is expected to see improved refining margins (European Refining Margin Marker growing to $35.3/t vs $29.4/t in Q1) and higher utilization rates. However, continued weakness in petrochemicals and biofuels margins due to overcapacities could be a drag.

Marketing & Services: Expected to benefit from positive seasonality, with results at similar levels to Q2 2024.

Cash Flow from Operations (CFFO):

Watch for: Overall CFFO, particularly excluding working capital movements. Strong CFFO is essential for funding investments and shareholder returns. Q1 CFFO (excl. working capital) was $7.0 billion.

Working Capital: The company noted that working capital is expected to increase by $4 billion to $5 billion in Q2, which is a seasonal effect. Investors should be aware that this will impact reported CFFO.

Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns:

Net Investments: TotalEnergies has a full-year 2025 net investment guidance of $17 billion to $17.5 billion. Monitor Q2's capital expenditure to see if they are on track.

Share Buybacks: The company executed $2 billion in buybacks in Q1. Look for confirmation of continued buyback programs for Q2 and the rest of 2025, in line with their commitment to a payout of more than 40% of CFFO through cycles.

Gearing: Gearing increased in Q1 due to seasonal working capital build-up. Investors should monitor this metric to ensure it remains within a healthy range, especially with ongoing investments.

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Price Target

Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for TotalEnergies in the last 3 months. The average price target is $68.43 with a high forecast of $75.00 and a low forecast of $58.00. The average price target represents a 10.50% change from the last price of $61.93.

Opportunity for Trading Short-Term Post-Earnings?

Trading TTE shares short-term post-earnings carries inherent volatility and risk. However, here's an analysis:

Potential for Upside (Bullish Scenario):

Beat on Adjusted EPS and/or CFFO: If TTE surpasses analyst consensus for adjusted EPS and delivers stronger-than-expected CFFO, especially if commodity prices were more favorable than anticipated, the stock could react positively.

Stronger Production Growth: If actual hydrocarbon production significantly exceeds the 2-3% year-over-year guidance, it would demonstrate operational strength.

Better-than-Expected Performance in Downstream (Refining & Chemicals): A strong rebound in refining margins that fully offsets any lingering weakness in chemicals could be a positive surprise.

Optimistic Outlook/Guidance: Any upward revision to full-year production growth, integrated power targets, or increased capital return commitments could fuel a rally.

Favorable LNG Market Commentary: Despite the expected quarter-on-quarter price decline, if TTE provides positive commentary on LNG market stability or future opportunities, it could be a boost.

Potential for Downside (Bearish Scenario):

Miss on Adjusted EPS or CFFO: Falling short of analyst estimates, particularly if driven by weaker-than-expected segment results or higher costs, would likely lead to a sell-off.

Weaker-than-Anticipated Realized Commodity Prices: If realized oil and gas prices are lower than expected, it would negatively impact revenue and profitability.

Disappointing Production: If actual production falls short of guidance, perhaps due to unexpected operational issues or more significant maintenance, it could trigger concerns.

Persistent Weakness in Key Segments: If refining & chemicals or parts of the LNG business show continued significant headwinds, it would be a negative.

Concerns about Capital Allocation or Balance Sheet: Any hint of increased gearing risks or a reduction in shareholder return commitments could cause a negative reaction.

Geopolitical Surprises: While not directly tied to earnings, any negative geopolitical developments impacting energy markets mentioned in the outlook could weigh on the stock.

Trading Considerations:

Commodity Price Sensitivity: TTE's earnings are highly sensitive to crude oil, natural gas, and refining margins. Traders should have a clear view of how these prices trended during Q2.

Dividend vs. Growth: TotalEnergies is often seen as a dividend play. Consistent dividend policy and buybacks are key for long-term investors, but for short-term trading, the immediate earnings beat/miss is paramount.

European Market Context: As a European major, TTE can also be influenced by broader European economic and energy market trends.

Technical Levels: Prior to the earnings release, identify significant support and resistance levels. A break above resistance on good news or below support on bad news can signal further movement.

Implied Volatility: Options markets will price in a certain level of expected volatility. This can be high around earnings, making directional options plays expensive.

Conclusion for Short-Term Trading:

Given the mixed commodity price environment for Q2 (lower oil/LNG prices but better refining margins), TotalEnergies' results could be a mixed bag, which often leads to volatile post-earnings trading.

A clear beat on adjusted EPS and CFFO, combined with strong production growth and positive outlook on segment performance, especially Integrated Power and continued E&P growth, could lead to a short-term rally.

Conversely, a miss on key profitability metrics, particularly if attributed to worse-than-expected realized prices or operational issues, could lead to a decline.

For short-term traders, the earnings report offers potential opportunities, but careful consideration of the specific drivers within each segment, alongside overall commodity market trends, is essential. Strong risk management is advisable due to the potential for significant price swings.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Concerns of lower average oil and LNG price did have a toil on TTE share price recently as the price is trading range bound, and the bulls is trying to make a daily uptrend, but could not succeed.

Though the RSI momentum is showing positively strong, but the lack of confidence and sentiment from investors might not create any break out, if the earnings were to come in less-than-expected, we might see some sell-off which could push the share price lower.

Summary

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 24. Analysts expect adjusted EPS around $1.63-$1.68, down from Q1, largely due to lower average oil and LNG prices.

Short-term trading opportunities exist, but come with high risk. A beat on EPS/CFO or strong guidance could fuel a rally. Conversely, a miss or cautious outlook, especially if commodity prices were worse than expected, could lead to a decline. TTE's diversified model offers some stability, but sensitivity to global energy prices remains high.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think TTE would post a less-than-expected earnings due to the lower average oil and LNG prices.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.