Is it still worth betting on earnings in Q2?
Q2 earnings season delivered plenty of surprises—but not all of them came in the form of price gains.
📊 Earnings vs. Stock Reaction – Q2 Highlights
From $Netflix(NFLX)$ to $Alphabet(GOOG)$, many companies beat expectations, but their stock prices moved in... unexpected directions. $IBM(IBM)$ barely budged after earnings, then dropped over 7% the next day. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ delivered solid results—yet its stock tumbled over 8% on the day. Even Netflix popped nearly 2% after earnings, only to fall more than 5% the next day. Talk about mixed signals.
So, what’s going on?
📉 Good earnings ≠ Good reaction
Investors are no longer cheering just a revenue or EPS beat. They're asking: “What about guidance?”
Weak outlooks, especially due to macro concerns like tariffs, inflation, or slowing consumer demand, are killing the post-earnings vibe.
💡 Semis are under pressure
Despite a string of “beats” ( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$, $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Texas Instruments(TXN)$), chipmakers mostly saw their stock prices drop—suggesting fears over trade restrictions, excess inventory, or weak demand might be outweighing headline numbers.
🏦 Banks? A mixed bag
$Citigroup(C)$ outperformed with a +3.7% pop, while $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ took a -5.5% dive even after a beat. $Bank of America(BAC)$ and $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$? Flat to slightly up/down.
So here’s the real question:
🤔 Is it still worth betting on earnings in Q2?
Or has the market become too unpredictable to play the “beat and rally” game?
Let’s hear it:
Have you played any earnings this season?
Do you trust the “beat = bounce” logic anymore?
How are you hedging your bets in this choppy environment?
👇 Drop your thoughts, wins (or lessons learned) below!
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I made a few trades, like a bear call spread on $Netflix(NFLX)$ , which paid off after the stock dipped post-earnings. Still, I’m more cautious now. Even chipmakers like TSM & $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ saw selling pressure despite decent results—fears around demand & trade issues seem to be in control. A simple beat just isn’t enough anymore.
To manage the risk, I’m using options more for both upside and protection. I’ve also added some defensive exposure and kept extra cash on hand. I’ll still trade earnings, but I no longer rely on the old logic—this market demands more than just good numbers.
@MillionaireTiger @TigerStars @Tiger_comments
Earnings calls can be a wild card. Instead of taking a position before the call, I'll wait for the market's reaction and then make my move.
*Pre-Earnings Strategy:*
- *Stay neutral*: Avoid taking a position in the stock before the earnings call to minimize potential losses.
- *Prepare for volatility*: Anticipate a significant price move after the earnings call and plan my next step accordingly.
*Post-Earnings Strategy:*
- *Analyze the results*: Review the earnings report and assess the market's reaction.
- *Options play*: Depending on the stock's price movement, I'll consider selling call or put options to capitalize on the momentum.
- *Technical analysis*: Use technical indicators to gauge the stock's trend and make informed decisions.
So if you are playing the earnings game, Guidance is your compass. Look for companies that raise guidance despite macro headwinds. Management teams that sound confident and back it up with numbers. Also look for sectors where forward visibility is improving such as Defense, Energy or Dividend rich plays.
Earnings are history but guidance is prophecy. Investors care less about what a company did and more about what it thinks it can do.
@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
Stocks I own, I bet good earnings and love to see the price go up.
If earnings are good, and stock goes down, I buy more.
Earnings create volatility which are good for getting discounts for stocks.
疲軟的前景，尤其是由於關稅、通脹或消費者需求放緩等宏觀擔憂，正在扼殺財報發佈後的氛圍。
I’m selling calls on my big stable holdings for now… and might mess around with meme stocks when time allows.