Apple Earnings Outlook Ahead
Apple has a long-standing reputation for reliably beating earnings and revenue expectations. In the past 4 fiscal quarters, it has consistently outperformed analyst forecasts with strong financial results.
Recent Sales Performance & China Headwinds
• In its latest Q2 2025 earnings (quarter ended March 29), Apple posted $95.4 billion in revenue, a respectable +5% year‑over‑year gain .
• However, Greater China revenue declined by about 2.3% YoY to roughly $16 billion, after an 11% drop in the prior quarter .
• Despite this, Q2 brought a bounce: iPhone sales in China rose about 8% YoY, largely driven by promotional pricing around the iPhone 16 series during the 618 festival .
• Analysts remain cautious: revenue guidance for China has been revised lower, and the expectation for full‑year China revenue dipped from $70 b to approximately $66 b .
Economic & Geopolitical Concerns
• Tariff-related pressures remain a concern: Apple warned of up to $900 million in extra costs this quarter tied to U.S.–China trade tensions .
• Investor sentiment toward U.S. products in China has cooled, influenced by trade rhetoric and geopolitical friction, particularly under the Trump administration’s trade policies.
• While not explicitly confirmed, the impact of tariffs and sentiment has likely weighed on demand in Greater China.
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🔍 Technical Chart Setup: Ascending Triangle
Technically, Apple’s price has been trading in a range between approximately $196 and $210, forming an ascending triangle pattern.
• The flat resistance around $210 suggests strong selling at that level.
• The rising trendline support (higher lows) indicates increasing buying pressure.
• Notably, the convergence point (tip) of the triangle aligns closely with the expected upcoming earnings date, hinting at a potential breakout to the upside.
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🧠 Outlook & View
Taking everything into account:
• Apple’s history of rare and small earnings misses, balanced by strong rebounds.
• Recent stability in overall revenue growth, with some soft spots in China offset by promotional gains.
• The commercial and geopolitical headwinds, particularly affecting China and tariffs.
• And the bullish technical setup forming an ascending triangle aligned with earnings timing.
My view: Despite some negative sentiment and regional headwinds, the odds favor an upward breakout around earnings. A solid beat or optimistic outlook on AI rollouts (Apple Intelligence) could kick off a technical breakout above the $210 level. @TigerEvents @Daily_Discussion @MillionaireTiger
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- blinki·07-28TOPYou've captured a nuanced view of Apple's situation.2Report