To The Moon

My Investing Muse (04Aug25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• US small farmers are facing a CRISIS: US small farm bankruptcies hit 173 in the H1 2025, the highest since the 2020 CRISIS. Up ~150% in 2 years. High interest rates, trade tensions, and collapsing Chinese demand are crushing farm margins. X user Global Markets Investor

• SINGAPORE: A growing number of businesses are going belly up in Singapore, with more companies being liquidated in the first half of 2025 than in the same period in the last five years. From January to June this year, 187 firms were forced by the courts to wind up. This is up from 146 in the same period last year and 95 the year before, according to the latest statistics from the Ministry of Law. - CNA

• San Francisco tech company Wag, once worth $650 million, files for bankruptcy. The pet care company, as of Monday, was valued at less than $6 million - SF Gate

• By the way, if the initial report from the government was that 70,000 jobs were added in July. That really means that -300,000 jobs were lost in July. We get a revision next month for -150,000 and then another revision at the end of the year for another -150,000. Flat out recession. Don’t let anyone gaslight you. - X user Spencer Hakimian

• In the news below (8Days), Singapore's Michelin restaurants did not survive. If it is not the quality, is the cost the issue?

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Closure / bankruptcy - Carroll Fulmer

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

Real Estate

BlackStone fire selling investment properties. Purchased for $515,000, paying over market in 2022. Now listed for UNDER $400k Sold for $340k in 2005 - X user Darth Powell

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Phoenix, Arizona home prices per square foot are absolutely collapsing! Now down 9.2% since MARCH! - X user Darth Powell

Las Vegas is dead. I have never seen the parking garage at the airport this empty and I did not see another person until I made it to the TSA PreCheck line in the terminal. - X user Jake Broe

Delinquency

Here is some news on delinquency.

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Housing defaults have just hit the highest levels since 2011 Buckle up. - X user Bravos Research

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Delinquencies for high-income borrowers in the US are SURGING: Auto loan and credit card delinquencies (30+ days) from Americans making at least $150,000 annually have risen nearly 20% over the last 2 years. This is faster than for middle- and lower-income borrowers. - X user Global Markets Investor

My final thoughts

The amount of US Margin Debt has reached a record of $1.0 trillion, and we are expecting this amount to surge.

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The level of GREED has hit historic levels: US margin debt rose $87 BILLION in June and has surpassed $1.0 TRILLION for the first time EVER. In the past, spikes like this occurred near major corrections, in 1999 or 2007. People are borrowing to buy stocks as NEVER before. - X user Global Markets Investor

Should there be a correction, we can expect a good chunk of margin calls. This should send a market sales spiral that takes out “stop losses” on its way down. Of course, there is a good chance that I am wrong on this.

We need to avoid leverage and margin to hold on to good companies. How investing market landscape change? Will America remain the preferred destination for global investing funds? Can people turn to other markets, assets and instruments?

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Do we need to revisit “The Big Short” movie again? Let us consider some hedging.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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