To The Moon

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ I’m seeing $UNH at a pivotal inflection point where technicals, insider flows, and political headlines are colliding. The stock surged to $304.01 (+11.98%) and held $306 overnight, breaking above the $302.68 Fibonacci pivot. That puts upside targets of $317.50, $322.70–$325, and ultimately $343–$361 on the table if momentum continues.

From the Fibonacci structure:

• Daily bottom: $248.58

• Support band: $265.53 → $282.47 (daily top)

• Key pivot: $302.68 (current test zone)

• Upside path: $317.50 (possible IHS shoulder) → $322.70–$325 (must hold to confirm) → $343.20 → $361.30 (monthly top)

• Retest risk: $288.90 (gold band)

Two scenarios dominate:

1. A bullish extension through $317.50 could complete an inverse head-and-shoulders setup, opening the way toward $360+.

2. A pullback retest to $288.90 remains possible before resuming higher.

Friday’s surge came as prominent investors, including a member of Congress, disclosed purchases, expanding positions in $UNH. This adds fuel to the ongoing debate over banning Congressional stock trading, especially with recent STOCK Act disclosures flagging hundreds of trades since March 2024.

The macro backdrop is equally charged:

• The White House corporate scorecard now rates 500+ companies on Trump loyalty, influencing perception of giants like $UNH

• Mark Cuban and Kevin O’Leary sparred on Trump’s semiconductor deal ($NVDA, $AMD), reflecting how political risk bleeds into sector valuation

• Jim Cramer is calling for an urgent Fed rate cut after a weak jobs report, which could further reprice healthcare equities

💡 Efficiency snapshot: $CLOV leads with $2.82M per employee, $ALHC at $1.99M, $HUM at $1.87M, while $UNH trails at $1.06M despite $422.8B in revenue. Smaller players like Clover leverage AI-driven efficiency, while UNH trades that for unmatched scale and stability.

But here’s the problem: the fundamentals don’t line up. After maintaining $6–$7 EPS through Q1’25, UNH’s earnings collapsed to $4.08 in Q2 and are projected to keep sliding: $3.09 in Q3 and just $2.27 in Q4. That’s a staggering 67% drop from 2024 peaks. The stock is pushing higher, but earnings estimates are falling off a cliff.

A lot of smart people think $UNH is bottoming. Yet, the wave structure, monthly DeMark TD Buy Setups, and Fibonacci projections point to a deeper flush. Breaching May lows on heavy volume has already taken the stock to new 5-year lows. Timing models suggest another 4–5 weeks before a true exhaustion low, with the $190 zone (near the 2020 lows) aligning with both DeMark and Elliott-wave projections. For now, it looks early to buy dips in healthcare given such heavy distribution volume.

The takeaway: $UNH is at a Fib crossroads. A decisive hold above $302.68 could accelerate momentum toward $317.50–$325 and ultimately $360. But the EPS cliff, heavy downside volume, and wave structure all suggest risks of a deeper flush toward $190 before a durable bottom forms. One of these forces will give way.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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