To The Moon

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Intel(INTC)$ I’m fully convinced AMD’s correction is the kind of high-conviction reset that defines asymmetric opportunity. From a peak near $182, the stock has retraced sharply into $159–163, a zone that aligns with channel support, 50SMA proximity, and volume shelf structure. I’m confident these conditions create a foundation for the next move higher, not a collapse in trend.

📊 Analyst Sentiment and Valuation Skew

I’m watching the analyst consensus carefully: 53 analysts now sit at 19% Strong Buy, 49% Buy, 30% Hold, with virtually no Sell ratings. That’s a rare skew. Even Citi, cautious on China revenue, maintains neutrality, while CICC raised its target to $166 (from $120). I’m tactically focused on this because the divergence between near-term caution and medium-term optimism signals that positioning risk is bigger than fundamental risk.

🩸 Short Interest and Positioning Risk

I’m deeply focused on the short data too. With 20.9M shares short, representing 23.6% of float, the setup is combustible. Daily short volumes spiked above 8.3M on 19Aug25, while the short ratio stands near 12.9%. Open short interest has moderated from 74M in late 2024 to 10.4M now, with days-to-cover at just 1. That tells me shorts are overstating conviction without a structural supply constraint, making sharp upside squeezes more probable on any positive catalyst.

💸 Options Flow and Whale Activity

I’m confident options flow validates this. We saw $1.1M in AMD 165C blocks this week, alongside whale activity with $81.5M loaded intraday. Even with implied volatility collapsing, daily premiums approached $1.9M. To me, that’s an undercurrent of conviction from big money while retail chases short-term fear.

🌐 AMD at the Core of the AI Ecosystem

I’m confident AMD’s fundamentals are often misunderstood as purely cyclical when in reality they’re evolving into structural AI infrastructure. AMD is no longer just competing on chips; it’s embedding itself across entire ecosystems. Through AMD Ventures, it invested in Somite.AI to accelerate foundation models in cell therapy, and alongside Amazon and Korean Development Bank, it joined a $45M round for Upstage to build next-gen Solar language models and document AI products. Pair that with AMD’s expanding data center footprint and the launch of AMDU, a new leveraged ETF, and the company now sits at the intersection of healthcare, enterprise AI, and global passive flow. This image captures that reality: AMD at the core of an expanding AI ecosystem, radiating influence into multiple high-growth domains.

📊 Fundamental Momentum: AMD’s Financial Backbone

AMD’s fundamentals tell a story that goes beyond market buzz. Revenue growth, rising free cash flow, and expanding EBITDA margins have created a financial backbone that validates its AI ambitions. The attached chart makes this clear: AMD is no longer the cyclical chipmaker of old, it’s building predictable cash engines that can support heavy R&D and long-term scaling.

⚖️ Strategic Valuation Lens: AMD vs Nvidia vs Intel

Investors often view AMD as Nvidia’s smaller cousin, but the valuation spread tells a deeper story. Nvidia commands a premium multiple that reflects its dominant AI position, while Intel trades at a discount as it fights for relevance. AMD sits in the middle; not as stretched as Nvidia, not as discounted as Intel, but with more upside optionality than either depending on execution. The valuation comparison chart highlights why positioning AMD correctly in a portfolio requires nuance.

📈 Technical Setup and Risk Levels

Technically, AMD is in a fascinating position. The daily chart shows five touches on its channel, with the current test at the lower bound near $160. On the 4H, Keltner and Bollinger compressions have unwound, RSI cooled to 47, and moving averages at 21EMA ($169) and 50SMA ($153) are the key references. I’m targeting $153 as a line in the sand; lose that, and we could accelerate to the 100SMA at $128, but hold it, and the risk-reward skews strongly higher. The weekly Elliott structure still points to $214 (Fib 0.382) and even $313 longer-term, with an extended 2.618 projection above $470. I’m unequivocally optimistic if the macro narrative stabilises and AMD maintains its execution pace.

📦 Passive Flows and ETF Dynamics

From a flows and product perspective, Defiance ETFs just launched AMDU, a leveraged + income ETF on AMD, alongside SMCC on Super Micro. That adds another passive flow dimension, potentially reinforcing institutional demand in volatile periods. With AMD embedded in $SOXX, $QQQ, and these new vehicles, I’m confident ETF inflows will act as secondary demand buffers.

⚖️ Macro and Regulatory Overhang

Macro remains the wild card. Trump’s floated idea of equity stakes in chipmakers in exchange for CHIPS Act grants adds political overhead. But I’m confident that even with regulatory interference, AMD’s execution track record, balance sheet flexibility, and diversified AI partnerships mean the long-term thesis is intact.

🚀 Roadmap vs. Reaction

I’m here for the bigger roadmap: AMD is now where fundamentals and positioning collide. With shorts elevated, analysts tilting bullish, whales loading calls, and ETF flows reinforcing demand, I see this as a battleground stock ready for an eventual recalibration higher.

This isn’t just a trade; it’s a transition in narrative from fear to positioning strength. Does this risk-reward framework resonate with your strategy, or are you waiting for confirmation before leaning in?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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