To The Moon

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ $Oscar Health, Inc.(OSCR)$ 

Technical Inflection: Third Cloud Dip and Symmetrical Compression

I believe $HIMS is at one of those rare market junctions where technical history, fundamental strength, and strategic timing collide. The third dip under the weekly TrendCloud has always been a harbinger of explosive upside moves; this time, the target sits at $109, with potential extensions into $137 if the symmetrical triangle pattern plays out.

I’m fully convinced this isn’t just a chart story. It’s the early stage of a billion-dollar vertical shift in health-tech.

Compression Dynamics Across Timeframes

On the weekly chart, the third dip under the Cloud is visible and intact. On the daily, $HIMS continues to respect its rising support trendline, holding near $44.01 even after today’s pullback. RSI is resting at 39.83 and MACD momentum is resetting, not collapsing.

I’m watching the Keltner and Bollinger overlays that show extended compression zones. This kind of coiled setup almost always resolves violently; history suggests it resolves higher. I’m targeting $50+ in the short term and $109–$137 across the next expansion leg.

Options Activity and Institutional Positioning

Unusual options activity confirms something is brewing. A $237K sweep of $70 calls expiring October (2,500 contracts at $0.95 avg) went through in a single block.

Beyond that, overall options activity shows 86,000 contracts traded, with calls leading puts for a put/call ratio of 0.73. Implied volatility sits at 71.39, with the market pricing in a $1.94 daily move. I’m convinced this is not noise but a signal of tactical positioning from large players.

Short Interest and Catalyst Timing

Short interest is massive; 70M shares as of mid-August, nearly 39% of the float. That’s a powder keg if execution continues.

What’s overlooked: the $HIMS testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) launch is imminent. This alone could be a billion-dollar vertical. Add peptides on deck, and you’re staring at entirely new growth avenues while shorts remain obsessed with GLP-1 noise.

I’m confident this story will not be defined by GLP-1 partnerships alone.

Short interest has surged from ~52M to ~70M shares since April, setting up a positioning squeeze just as the TRT launch approaches.

Financial Momentum and Operating Leverage

The numbers speak for themselves:

• 1Q25: Revenue +111% YoY to $586M, net profit +344.7% to $49.5M, subscribers +38% to 2.4M, ARPU +53% to $84.

• 1H25: Revenue +90.4% YoY to $1.13B, operating profit +4x to $84.6M, net profit +276% to $92M, subscribers +31% YoY, ARPU +41% to $79.

I’m deeply focused on the flywheel effect: more subscribers, richer data, better personalisation, higher monetisation, and stronger retention. Management’s 2030 target of $6.5B revenue is not a dream; it’s a trajectory.

Revenue climbed 73% YoY in Q2 2025, but adjusted EBITDA more than doubled. This shows the operating leverage and efficiency scaling inside the HIMS model.

Regulatory Risks and Competitive Realignment

It’s not all clear skies. A lawsuit filed between April and June 2025 alleges HIMS misrepresented compounded Wegovy®, raising patient safety issues and risking its Novo Nordisk partnership. Levi & Korsinsky is leading the case.

Then came August: Novo Nordisk terminated its partnership with HIMS and pivoted to GoodRx for FDA-approved distribution of Wegovy and Ozempic. That’s a direct competitive blow and raises the bar for HIMS to prove regulatory resilience.

I’m conscious these risks are material; they amplify volatility, but they also amplify the asymmetric payoff if HIMS executes beyond them.

Strategic Expansion Through Acquisitions

The ZAVA acquisition in June opened up the UK and European markets, adding 1.3M users. Management expects this to be accretive to earnings by 2026. That means geographic diversification and less dependence on U.S. regulatory bottlenecks.

Combine that with the TRT launch and peptides pipeline, and the narrative shifts from “GLP-1 play” to “multi-vertical personalised health ecosystem.”

Valuation Scenarios and Forecast Dispersion

Consensus forecasts call for $3.3B revenue and $261M earnings by 2028, implying 18.3% CAGR. Simply Wall St places fair value at $49.45, a 14% upside from here. Community estimates range wildly between $17.15 and $97.04; proof that this is one of the most hotly debated names in the market.

I’m convinced this dispersion is exactly where asymmetric opportunity lives.

Q2 2025 execution gap is stark: HIMS revenue growth 73% vs GDRX 1%, net income growth ~220% vs ~92%, and user growth +31% vs −14%. This isn’t noise, it’s a flywheel accelerating against a slowing rival.

Macro Tailwinds in Digital Health Adoption

Digital health adoption is scaling, personalised medicine is moving from buzzword to policy, and AI integration strengthens $HIMS’ moat. With the Fed preparing for easing into 2025, risk-on capital flows could disproportionately favour high-growth platforms like $HIMS. ETFs like $QQQ and $ARKK remain sensitive to these rotations; $HIMS sits right at the intersection.

$OSCR (weekly) — Strong move off the green buy zone

Oscar Health is once again proving why the $13–$14 support range matters. That green zone has been tested repeatedly over the past two years, acting as the reliable entry point for anyone trading the range. Each time, the bounce has provided a clear swing back toward the $22 resistance band.

Honestly, trading $OSCR between $22 and $13 could’ve been all you needed for the last two years to consistently generate profit. The chart highlights how disciplined range-trading, anchored by well-tested levels, can outperform over-complication.

Now the weekly candles are reclaiming momentum off that same zone, suggesting another cycle in play. The Fibonacci retracements at $15.74 (0.382) and $14.64 (0.618) underline the significance of this structure. With price holding $17.08 and pushing upward, the setup is once again skewed toward reward over risk.

Are you leaning into this range-trading opportunity, or waiting for a larger breakout beyond $22 to confirm trend reversal?

Long-Term Narrative Transition

To me, $HIMS feels like Amazon in 1995: misunderstood, under siege, but building infrastructure too important to dismiss. Shorts see a lawsuit and a terminated partnership. I see a platform with explosive subscriber growth, billion-dollar verticals launching, and an inflection technical setup backed by institutional options flow.

This isn’t just a trade; it’s a roadmap, not a reaction.

👉 The question is simple: Are you preparing for the breakout now, or waiting until the market prices in what’s already being built?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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