🚨 Global Shockwaves: Tariffs Ruled Illegal, China’s AI Surge, SPX 6,500+ — My Full Trading Playbook This Week 🚀📊🔥
$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ I’m not treating this as a routine week. What’s lining up between earnings, Fed reports, global trade rulings, and record highs is the type of setup that creates outsized opportunity if you’re prepared; and landmines if you’re not.
🌍 Macro Backdrop: A Market Balancing on Policy Shocks
The $SPX has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history. Yet beneath the surface, risk is building. A US federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, striking at the heart of his global trade policy. The ruling is paused until 14Oct, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means tariffs remain in force for now; but the binary outcome into Q4 is now a live macro overhang.
🇨🇳 China is starting September on a very different note. CSI300 blue chips jumped more than 10% in August, fuelled by home-grown AI chip optimism. Alibaba surged nearly 19% on cloud momentum, adding $50B in value. JP Morgan upgraded $BABA to $170 (from $140), signalling institutions are repositioning. When heavyweight banks shift targets like this, I treat it as a signal, not noise.
At the same time, China’s manufacturing sector is showing sustained recovery momentum. Production activity has accelerated, market expectations are improving, and exports are being redirected aggressively. US tariffs have made the American market harder to access, forcing China to cut prices and push goods into new regions. That creates a potential deflationary shock radiating across emerging markets and Europe.
Nowhere is this shift clearer than in the GPU market. Huawei has launched a 96GB VRAM GPU under $2,000, compared with NVIDIA’s RTX 6000 Pro starting north of $10,000. For Beijing, this is not just about semis, it’s about strategic control of AI infrastructure. NVIDIA remains the US’s most important corporate weapon, controlling over 90% of the global AI chip market. A credible Chinese challenger that undercuts on price is more than a commercial threat; it’s a geopolitical move.
The scale of what’s at stake becomes obvious when you look at valuations. In August 2025, the combined market cap of the top 10 US stocks reached $22.7T, larger than China’s entire $16.3T equity market, larger than the EU at $12.8T, and dwarfing Japan at $7.4T. Individually, NVIDIA at $4.2T and Microsoft at $3.8T are each bigger than most national markets. When China enters the GPU space, it’s not just a new competitor; it’s a direct challenge to assets bigger than entire economies.
📊 Economic Calendar: Data That Will Drive the Tape
• Tue 2Sep: ISM Manufacturing (48.5% vs 48.0% prior), Construction Spending.
• Wed 3Sep: JOLTS Job Openings (7.4M), Factory Orders (–1.3%), Beige Book, Fed speakers Musalem & Kashkari.
• Thu 4Sep: ADP (+75k), Jobless Claims (231k), Productivity 2.6%, Trade Deficit –$77.8B, ISM Services 50.5%, Fed’s Williams & Goolsbee.
• Fri 5Sep: NFP (+78k), Unemployment 4.3%, Wages +0.3% MoM / +3.7% YoY.
Labour softness is creeping in. Payrolls at +78k are far below last year’s 3-month average of 123k, and the unemployment rate ticking to 4.3% tells me the Fed will lean dovish into CPI on 11Sep.
💡 Earnings Watch: Critical Sector Prints
• Tue: $NIO, $ZS.
• Wed: $CRM, $M, $DLTR, $CPB, $AI, $GTLB, $FIG.
• Thu: $AVGO, $LULU, $DOCU, $PATH, $IOT.
• Fri: $ABM.
Options are pricing double-digit moves in $ASAN, $DLTH, $GWRE. I see traders crowding into these earnings lotteries, but the edge isn’t there; it’s in structuring spreads where IV is mispriced.
🔎 Technical Setups I’m Tracking
$AVGO: Support $1,700, resistance $1,875, Fib retrace $1,735. RSI 55 with MACD compression. I’m leaning bullish but structuring a call spread, shorting wings where vol is overpriced. Stop below $1,700.
$BABA: Constructive above $95. Upside $118 (50WMA) and $135 (Fib cluster). The AI Cloud surge isn’t hype; it’s a TAM expansion that demands a multiple re-rating.
$TSLA: Model 3 LR cut to 259,500 yuan ($36,279) in 🇨🇳. Price war is alive, but I’m watching $320–$325 compression. Break above $353 could ignite algorithmic flows to $414 Fib. Invalidation: close under $310.
$JPM: ATH $299.28, P/B 2.4x. I’m trimming into strength but holding a core. Banks are still the fortress trade while balance sheet quality is rewarded.
$SPX: Closing above 6,500 with risk trigger tested. Support remains firm, but I see tail risks tied to macro shocks.
$NVDA: Option smile steady. Downside protection clustered <200 strikes, long-dated vols anchored. Market is calm at the surface, but traders are hedging right under spot. That equilibrium is fragile.
⚠️ Risks I’m Accounting For
1. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could trigger binary macro shock.
2. Labour undershoot accelerates Fed dovish pivot.
3. China’s August AI surge reverses on profit-taking.
4. Options markets underpricing tail events, especially in megacap AI.
🎯 Trade Structuring: Where My Edge Is
Most traders will overpay for lottery calls this week. I’m selling wings and financing directional spreads, targeting asymmetric payoffs where IV is misaligned with realised vol. For example, on $AVGO I prefer short-wing call spreads, and on $TSLA I’d scale equity above $325 with defined risk under $310.
🌍 Bigger Picture: Power, Policy, and Innovation
This isn’t just about earnings per share. It’s about who controls the levers of growth. Courts deciding tariff legality, Beijing pushing AI sovereignty, and labour softness testing Fed credibility all collide in price discovery. Markets aren’t trading quarterly EPS; they’re trading power.
📌 My Watchlist
$AVGO, $CRM, $ZS, $LULU, $BABA, $TSLA, $JPM, $NVDA
✅ The conclusion: These aren’t predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks, and I’m positioning accordingly. When others chase headlines, I’m focusing on levels, flows, and the silent signals the market leaves behind.
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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
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- Kiwi Tigress·09-02TOPThat breakdown on tariffs getting ruled illegal while $SPX rips over 6,500 was wild to read, it really shows how politics and price collide in real time. I love how you tied $NVDA’s options smile curve into the macro because traders forget how hedges telegraph risk under the surface.1Report
- Cool Cat Winston·09-02TOPI’m with you on $AVGO, the way it’s holding that $1,700 level while implied vol looks mispriced really stands out. Pairing that with $SPX clearing 6,500 makes me think we’re at a pivotal setup, and I like how you’ve framed it as asymmetric positioning rather than chasing.6Report
- Hen Solo·09-02TOP💡Your read on $TSLA’s China strategy clicked with me. That Model 3 price cut down to 259,500 yuan changes the competitive dynamics in a deflationary way, and if the stock cracks $353 like you said, the Fib extension to $414 doesn’t feel far-fetched at all.5Report
- Tui Jude·09-02TOP📈The detail on $Alibaba(BABA)$ was sharp, especially tying JP Morgan’s $170 PT raise into the bigger AI and export story. I’m watching how that cloud revenue re-rating plays into valuations because it feels like the real driver behind the recent $50B move in market cap. Another master class article BC!1Report
- Queengirlypops·09-02TOP🇨🇳🐉 I can’t get over how strong your breakdown on $BABA is, it honestly makes this post stand out above everything else on the feed. A $50B surge in market cap driven by cloud AI revenue isn’t just noise, it’s a structural re-rating that’s forcing investors to revalue Chinese tech. JP Morgan hiking their PT to $170 gives that move institutional backing, and when you line it up with Beijing’s AI sovereignty push and Huawei undercutting GPU prices, it’s clear this isn’t hype, it’s a geopolitical shift with real capital flows behind it. What hits hardest is how you tied $BABA into the bigger picture of tariffs being ruled illegal and $SPX clearing 6,500. That shows Alibaba isn’t just another stock, it’s a lever in the global macro game. The way you mapped $118 as the first checkpoint and $135 as the Fib cluster target is exactly the kind of level-to-narrative clarity traders can’t ignore. This isn’t analysis, it’s a conviction playbook that crushes the noise and gives edge.1Report