To The Moon

Over the past two years, the stories of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have revolved around one key phrase: pro-cyclical. Especially in commodities and resource-related equities, this phrase acts like a switch—once triggered by policy or the economic cycle, the market tends to surge swiftly and fiercely. Recently, market attention has again shifted to China’s resource sectors: steel, copper & aluminum, and rare earths, all riding on policy stimulus and a global price rebound.But why should we care about these “iron lumps” and “piles of ore”? Because they are not just cold raw materials—they represent China’s confidence in breaking free from economic “involution.” Steel fuels infrastructure, copper & aluminum are the “lifeblood” of new energy vehicles, and rare earths are the “v

Alibaba $BABA-W(09988)$ – AI-Driven Rally Alibaba surged nearly 19% on August 29 following its Q2 FY25 earnings report, primarily driven by: Cloud segment outperforming expectations with 26% revenue growth, significantly above estimates. AI-related product revenue continuing triple-digit growth for the eighth straight quarter. Development of a domestic AI inference chip, strengthening investors’ confidence in Alibaba’s strategic positioning amid global tech tensions. Chart-Based Technical Analysis: Trend Channel: Alibaba’s price recently bounced off after earnings at the top of a rising channel (around ~140 HKD), suggesting it faces short-term resistance. Support Zone: A key support area is seen around 122–125 HKD, where buyers may step in on pul

Baba has a long runway to go!

China's e-commerce and tech giant Alibaba (ticker: $Alibaba(BABA)$) – officially known as "Alibaba Group Holding Limited" – witnessed a price surge after it released the earnings results for the first quarter (Q1) for its Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. The price surge was mostly attributed to its advances in capturing AI spends.  This surge might be somewhat overstating the advances made by the company.  Trend Drilldown In 2023, the company's management moved to consolidate into six distinct entities that could possibly be spun out into six separate companies/tickers. While the logistics arm – Cainiao – worked on an IPO since, the plan was dropped early in 2024. In Q1 2026, the “6 entities” plan has been effectively dissolved.  As of FY 202

The spotlight is heating up right next to you in China’s asset market!A-shares are on fire: The Shanghai Composite Index has hit a 10-year high — breaking above 3,800 points, its highest closing level since 2015, sparking strong market excitement.A-share market cap hits a milestone: On the same day, the total market cap of A-shares surpassed the 100 trillion RMB mark for the first time ever. Behind this record are surging margin financing balances and booming investor participation.Money is pouring in: Trading volume soared to about 2.8 trillion RMB, with both institutions and retail investors driving liquidity.These signals tell us one thing: investment sentiment is strong, capital is favoring equities, and the appeal of high-dividend ETFs is climbing fast. So let’s break it down in plain

Alibaba’s latest results reveal a complex picture: 1. Positive Surprise – AI Ambitions The development of a new AI chip to fill the vacuum left by Nvidia in the Chinese market is strategically significant. With US export restrictions limiting access to advanced semiconductors, Alibaba’s move could strengthen its cloud division’s competitiveness. If execution is strong, the AI chip could bolster Alibaba Cloud’s positioning in the enterprise and government segments, where demand for AI computing power is surging. 2. Financial Signals – Cash Outflow The RMB 18.815 billion free cash flow (FCF) outflow underscores Alibaba’s aggressive reinvestment into cloud infrastructure and its “Taobao Flash Sales” initiative. While negative FCF is not ideal, it can be justified if these investments lead to

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I am thrilled to see Alibaba's $Alibaba(BABA)$  $Alibaba(09988)$  recent performance, especially with the stock jumping ten percent following the earnings report. The development of a new artificial intelligence chip to address the gap left by Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  in the Chinese market is a bold move that I find promising. It suggests that Alibaba is positioning itself strategically, and I am encouraged by this innovative step forward. Despite the expected drag from food delivery on profits and the significant net outflow of RMB 18.815 billion due t

A hold till $150 or keep long term

Alibaba is probably a hold till 150. It's earnings per share still considered high for their industry. 

More gains to come. Baba right not is undervalued.

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ I’m not treating this as a routine week. What’s lining up between earnings, Fed reports, global trade rulings, and record highs is the type of setup that creates outsized opportunity if you’re prepared; and landmines if you’re not. 🌍 Macro Backdrop: A Market Balancing on Policy Shocks The $SPX has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history. Yet beneath the surface, risk is building. A US federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, striking at the heart of his global trade policy. The ruling is paused until 14Oct, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means tarif

$Alibaba(BABA)$ PRICE TARGET: $181 --> $189POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +39% ✅"Alibaba remains an attractive opportunity considering the 10% growth of China commerce and the 25%+ growth of Cloud" ASSUMPTIONS:LTM Revenue: $138.995B(𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.𝟤𝟢) 5Y Revenue CAGR: 8% --> 10%2030 Profit Margin: 16%2030 PE Ratio: 18Shares outstanding: 2.393BShares reduction: 3% --> 2%/year VALUATION:Q1 2030 $BABA SHARE PRICE =138.995 * (1.10)^5 * 0.16 * 18 /[2.393 * (0.98)^5] = $298You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12%ACTUAL PRICE: $136FAIR VALUE: $169PRICE TARGET (1Y): $189POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 39%EXPECTED RETURNS: 17.0%/yearDIVIDEND YIELD: 0.8% Do you own BABA shares? For whom haven't open CBA can know more from belo

Now is an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Escalating competition in China's food delivery is expanding the market, validating Meituan's moat, and strengthening its user base despite near-term margin pressure. Emerging segments like Instashopping and in-store services are scaling rapidly, diversifying Meituan's business and deepening consumer trust beyond food delivery. While margins may remain pressured short-term due to subsidies, I expect profitability and multiples to rebound as competition normalizes by FY26.

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) has long been regarded as one of China’s most important technology conglomerates, but over the last several years, the company’s reputation with investors has been tested. From Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns to intensifying domestic competition and U.S. geopolitical restrictions, Alibaba has faced challenges that reshaped how global markets view the stock. Now, in 2025, the company is trying to write its next chapter. The latest earnings report contained one particularly notable development: Alibaba unveiled a new artificial intelligence chip designed to help fill the vacuum left by U.S. export restrictions on Nvidia’s high-end GPUs. The announcement triggered immediate investor enthusiasm, sending the s

Great news for future Alibaba investors but no evidence and whether it clears US security concerns, meaning NVDA continues to be the undisputed king meanwhile. Time to buy oversold $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   price target $250 by end 2025.

1. Earnings Highlights Positive surprise: Alibaba unveiled its own AI chip—a strategic move to reduce reliance on Nvidia, especially given U.S. export restrictions. This aligns with Beijing’s broader push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. The market rewarded the announcement, with the stock surging ~10%. Negative drag: Free Cash Flow (FCF) outflow of RMB 18.8 billion, reflecting: 1. Heavy investment in cloud infrastructure, a capital-intensive but strategically vital area. 2. Ongoing subsidies for Taobao Flash Sales, designed to fend off rivals Pinduoduo and Douyin. --- 2. Can AI Be the Next Growth Driver? Cloud + AI integration: Alibaba Cloud remains the largest cloud provider in China, and pairing it with an in-house AI chip creates vertical integration—potentially higher margins long-

Alibaba's Profit Jumps 76%... So Why Did It Crash 18%? https://youtu.be/0uTBCRYH5Y0 $Alibaba(BABA)$  

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ I’m not treating this as a routine week. What’s lining up between earnings, Fed reports, global trade rulings, and record highs is the type of setup that creates outsized opportunity if you’re prepared; and landmines if you’re not. 🌍 Macro Backdrop: A Market Balancing on Policy Shocks The $SPX has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history. Yet beneath the surface, risk is building. A US federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, striking at the heart of his global trade policy. The ruling is paused until 14Oct, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means tarif

Alibaba reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on August 29 after the U.S. market close. Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 253.4B (+4.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of RMB 15.82 (-3.8% YoY). Will AI-driven cloud growth spark a rally, or will massive local-commerce subsidies weigh on profits? $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ 🔍 Key Things to WatchAlibaba Cloud revenue is expected to hit RMB 31.9B (+20% YoY), driven by rising AI demand. The company’s new Qwen3 model, AI-powered search tools, and broader product upgrades could keep Alibaba ahead of competitors.Taotian Group (China commerce) is projected to deliver RMB 121.7B (+7.3% YoY), supported by better promotions and improved consumer demand. International commerce stays

The spotlight is heating up right next to you in China’s asset market!A-shares are on fire: The Shanghai Composite Index has hit a 10-year high — breaking above 3,800 points, its highest closing level since 2015, sparking strong market excitement.A-share market cap hits a milestone: On the same day, the total market cap of A-shares surpassed the 100 trillion RMB mark for the first time ever. Behind this record are surging margin financing balances and booming investor participation.Money is pouring in: Trading volume soared to about 2.8 trillion RMB, with both institutions and retail investors driving liquidity.These signals tell us one thing: investment sentiment is strong, capital is favoring equities, and the appeal of high-dividend ETFs is climbing fast. So let’s break it down in plain

Over the past two years, the stories of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have revolved around one key phrase: pro-cyclical. Especially in commodities and resource-related equities, this phrase acts like a switch—once triggered by policy or the economic cycle, the market tends to surge swiftly and fiercely. Recently, market attention has again shifted to China’s resource sectors: steel, copper & aluminum, and rare earths, all riding on policy stimulus and a global price rebound.But why should we care about these “iron lumps” and “piles of ore”? Because they are not just cold raw materials—they represent China’s confidence in breaking free from economic “involution.” Steel fuels infrastructure, copper & aluminum are the “lifeblood” of new energy vehicles, and rare earths are the “v

China's e-commerce and tech giant Alibaba (ticker: $Alibaba(BABA)$) – officially known as "Alibaba Group Holding Limited" – witnessed a price surge after it released the earnings results for the first quarter (Q1) for its Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. The price surge was mostly attributed to its advances in capturing AI spends.  This surge might be somewhat overstating the advances made by the company.  Trend Drilldown In 2023, the company's management moved to consolidate into six distinct entities that could possibly be spun out into six separate companies/tickers. While the logistics arm – Cainiao – worked on an IPO since, the plan was dropped early in 2024. In Q1 2026, the “6 entities” plan has been effectively dissolved.  As of FY 202

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba’s Q2 2025 earnings revealed a mixed bag, with revenue at RMB 247.652 billion (up 5.8% YoY but below the RMB 253.17 billion estimate) and a net FCF outflow of RMB 18.815 billion, driven by heavy investments in cloud infrastructure and Taobao Flash Sales. The surprise highlight: a new AI chip designed to fill the Nvidia gap in China, potentially powering its cloud and e-commerce segments. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm amid tariffs (30-35% on Canada/EU/Mexico) and oil at $74.50/barrel. Alibaba's shares dipped 1.2% to $121.30, but the AI chip news has investors rethinking its valuation at 16.05x forward P/E. Can AI become Alibaba’s next growth engi

Meituan’s latest earnings reveal a staggering 90% dive in adjusted net profit to RMB 1.49 billion in Q2 2025, well below the RMB 9.85 billion consensus, as the food delivery price war with Alibaba and JD.com tightens its grip. Alibaba, gearing up for its August 29 earnings, faces market expectations of RMB 266 billion revenue (up 9.4% year-over-year) but a concerning 21.7% drop in adjusted EBITA to RMB 35.3 billion, hinting at delivery war pressures. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the global market pulses with optimism, though tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel stir caution. The VIX at 14.12 reflects calm, but Meituan’s 22.7x forward P/E and Alibaba’s 16.05x signal divergent valuations. Will the delivery war e

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ Q2 2025 results still surprised a market that had already braced for pessimism. On the surface, the recent slump in the stock price already hinted at investors' simmering discontent, as they waited for management to address the situation.Q2 revenue saw double-digit growth but still fell short of market expectations; on the profit side, the company lagged significantly due to cutthroat competition, with operating efficiency deteriorating sharply and falling far below analysts' already-revised pessimistic forecasts. The subsidy war in the food delivery battle has spread across the board, forcing the core local services business to "self-deplete" its competitive moat. While management emphasizes long-term strategy and platform eco

🌟🌟🌟As Singapore celebrates SG60, marking 6 decades of independence, ingenuity and identity, I am launching a personal tribute to this milestone with a series of articles spotlighting the most compelling companies listed on the SGX. If you are inspired to take part in this journey, there is no better time.  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ is celebrating SG60 with a special promotion - from now until October 17, enjoy zero commission, zero custodian fees and stand a chance to win attractive prizes as you invest in Singapore's future.  It is a timely opportunity to align your portfolio with the spirit of SG60. Alibaba and SG60: 2 Stories of Resilience, Reinvention and the Power of Belief As Singapore celebrates SG60 - A milestone of grit, growt

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) has long been regarded as one of China’s most important technology conglomerates, but over the last several years, the company’s reputation with investors has been tested. From Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns to intensifying domestic competition and U.S. geopolitical restrictions, Alibaba has faced challenges that reshaped how global markets view the stock. Now, in 2025, the company is trying to write its next chapter. The latest earnings report contained one particularly notable development: Alibaba unveiled a new artificial intelligence chip designed to help fill the vacuum left by U.S. export restrictions on Nvidia’s high-end GPUs. The announcement triggered immediate investor enthusiasm, sending the s

Market Snapshot Shanghai Composite just closed at a decade-high of ~3,771 the strongest since August 2015 The CSI 300 edged up ~0.4%, buoyed by fintech and stablecoin-related shares amid early approvals for yuan-backed stablecoins Driving Forces Policy tailwinds: Expectations of stimulus and easing U.S.–China tensions are tipping investor sentiment Retail surge: Domestic inflows are growing, aided by low bond yields, property-sector frustrations, and attractive valuations Dividend culture shift: Beijing is pushing dividends and share buybacks to boost investor confidence dividend yields are now near 3%, highest since 2016 Warning signs linger: retail sales and fixed-asset investment are lagging, real estate remains frozen, and credit growth is weak. Meanwhile, Bridgewater liquidated its ~$

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ China’s consumer internet space has long been defined by bruising competition, subsidy-driven battles, and shifting consumer preferences. But even in such a dynamic environment, the magnitude of Meituan’s latest earnings collapse stunned markets. A 90% plunge in adjusted net profit, far below consensus expectations, reignited investor debate about whether food delivery is destined to remain a low-margin, cash-burning battlefield. The disappointment also comes just as Alibaba prepares to release its latest quarterly earnings, with many questioning whether the delivery war will spill into its broader e-commerce operations. Meanwhile, Pinduoduo’s (PDD) signals of strategic moderation raise fresh questions about competitive balance

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group is on the brink of its Q2 2025 earnings release on August 29, 2025, with market eyes locked on whether its food delivery battles or AI infrastructure investments will steer the stock higher. Analysts forecast revenue of RMB 266 billion (+9.4% YoY), driven by e-commerce and cloud growth, but adjusted EBITA of RMB 35.3 billion (-21.7% YoY) reflects heavy capex in AI amid competition from Pinduoduo and ByteDance's Ele.me. With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Bitcoin at $115,000, and oil at $75/barrel under 30-35% tariffs, the VIX at 14.49 signals calm, but Alibaba's RSI at 55 suggests room for movement. Is Alibaba a superior long-term hold? Will the food delivery war erode profits? Has PDD's risk evaporated post-management'

A-shares hit a nearly 10-year high. As of August 22, the $SSE Comp(000001.SH)$ closed at 3825.76 points, up 1.45%.Previously, on August 19, the $SSE Comp(000001.SH)$ reached an intraday high of 3746.67 points, breaking the closing record since the 2015 bull market.From April 8 to August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index, $SZSE Comp(399001)$ Shenzhen Component Index, and $ChiNext(399006)$ ChiNext Index rose by 25%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. Trading volume and margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive days, a record high.Meanwhile, the HKEX market

The spotlight shines on Alibaba Group (BABA) and Pinduoduo (PDD) as they gear up for Q2 2025 earnings, with Pinduoduo reporting on August 25 and Alibaba on August 29, amid a 3.7% U.S. CPI rise and a 64% Fed rate cut probability. Alibaba’s expected revenue of RMB 266 billion (+9.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITA of RMB 35.3 billion (-21.7% YoY) reflect cautious growth, while Pinduoduo’s projected $14.36 billion revenue (+7.5% YoY) and EPS drop of 36.4% highlight profitability pressures. Both trade at attractive valuations—Alibaba at 16.05x forward P/E and Pinduoduo at 13.56x—amid a consumer recovery, with U.S. retail sales up 0.3% in July. This deep dive explores the earnings outlook, consumer trends, and strategies to bet on their potential breakout. Earnings Outlook: Growth Amid Challenges Aliba

📉 Meituan’s 90% Profit Plunge! Can Alibaba Survive the Food Delivery War? Meituan just shocked the market with a staggering 90% year-on-year profit collapse in Q2. The stock slid sharply, and investors are scrambling to figure out whether this is a one-off stumble or a structural warning for China’s platform economy. At the heart of the drama? China’s food delivery war. Aggressive subsidies, slowing consumer spending, and rising competition are squeezing margins for even the biggest names. With Alibaba’s Ele.me directly in the line of fire, this isn’t just Meituan’s problem — it’s a test of whether anyone can make money in China’s hyper-competitive online-to-offline (O2O) market. --- ⚔️ The Food Delivery Battlefield Food delivery is one of the most visible consumer-facing industries in Chi

If you have been following the news on Chinese consumers, we have not been seeing a very strong recovery to the previous spending level. So whether the consumer spending might boost $Alibaba(BABA)$ or $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ earnings, we might want to look at the sentiment and trends. In this article, I would be sharing what I have found on the consumer spending sentiment, key trends, and how consumer sentiment could affect both these two stocks, Alibaba and Pinduoduo. The State of Chinese Consumer Spending Sentiment Chinese consumer spending sentiment in 2025 has been characterized by a "cautious recovery." While there are signs of stabilization and a return to growth, a key theme is that consumers are be

In the second half of 2025, Hong Kong’s capital market is embracing a brand-new “spring.” It’s not just about the IPO pipeline gearing up or HKEX delivering record profits—what’s more important is the surging southbound capital from A-shares, which has rapidly fueled the ETF market’s momentum, turning it from a niche corner into the spotlight.According to HKEX’s latest interim results, profits for the first half of 2025 soared nearly 40% to a record HK$8.52 billion, with average daily stock turnover reaching HK$222.8 billion and Stock Connect flows hitting new highs. Particularly striking is the surge of southbound inflows into ETFs: daily ETF turnover climbed to HK$33.8 billion, a jump of nearly 184%, significantly boosting both liquidity and valuations across the ETF market.So far this y

📊 13x Forward PE! PDD or BABA: Which Will Lead the Consumer Rally? Chinese tech earnings are back in focus, and two giants — Alibaba ($Alibaba(BABA)$  ) and Pinduoduo ($PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  ) — are about to face the market. On the surface, their valuations look similar: Alibaba trades at ~16x forward PE, PDD at ~13.5x. But when you look deeper, investor sentiment couldn’t be more different. BABA feels like the undervalued veteran; PDD feels like the hot hand. The market has already picked a favourite — but should you? --- 💡 China’s Consumer Recovery: Who Benefits Most? The backdrop matters. China’s consumer recovery is still fragile, but there are green shoots: restaurant sales up, l

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ The battle for dominance in China’s e-commerce market has been nothing short of dramatic. Over the past year, Pinduoduo (PDD) emerged as the clear growth champion, outpacing long-time giant Alibaba (BABA) with its aggressive pricing strategies and global expansion through Temu. Investors poured in, sending PDD’s shares to new highs. But the tide is turning. Following its latest earnings release, Pinduoduo executives admitted that current profit levels are not sustainable, signaling that earnings will fluctuate sharply in upcoming quarters. That single line from management was enough to rattle markets: the stock quickly retreated to $130, shaving billions off its market cap. Meanwhile, Alibaba is preparing to release its resu