<Part 4 of 5> Delinqency, debts & CMBS News and my thoughts from the past week (08Sep25)
News and my thoughts from the past week (08Sep25)
Microsoft says multiple international subsea cables have been cut in the Red Sea. - The Kobeissi Letter
A line graph showing the Office CMBS Delinquency Rate in percentage from 2000 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 0% to 12%, and the x-axis spans the years. A red line plots the delinquency rate, peaking sharply during labeled events: Oil Bust around 2015, Financial Crisis around 2008, and Recession around 2001. The rate rises steeply from 2020, reaching 11.7% by 2024. A blue horizontal line marks 12%. Text labels include "Oil Bust," "Financial Crisis," and "Recession." A watermark reads "WOLFSTREET.COM 2023."
Commercial Real Estate Office CMBS Delinquency Rate jumps to 11.7%, the highest level in history - BarChart
In a reset, the weak is removed, the wrongs should be made right. The reset is a time to correct the economy. It is also a time for wealth transfer. A recession is an opportunity and not just a crisis.
$2B buy back
There's a massive amount of fear/uncertainty in the US right now - here's the situation: -Students from top schools can't find jobs -Credit card delinquencies surging -Tech & white collar layoffs rising -Middle/lower class getting squeezed -Dollar plunging -Fast food sales slumping -Weak retail foot traffic -Housing/rent affordability at record lows -Housing market frozen -Small biz confidence at decade lows -Wage growth slowing -Persistent inflation The US was firing on all cylinders just a yr or two ago - X user Triple Net Investor
How will education be affected?
Europe's fate sealed. China gets low-cost, dependable Russian pipeline gas that once upon a time powered Europe/Germany. Mongolia benefits via transit. Ukraine used to benefit via transit. "Russia’s gas giant Gazprom PJSC has signed a legally binding agreement to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline to China via Mongolia, Interfax reports citing Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller in China."
Serious Credit Card Delinquencies (unpaid balances for at least 90 days) hit their highest level in 14 years - BarChart
A line chart displaying total debt balance over time from 2003 to 2024. Two colored areas represent housing debt in blue and non-housing debt in red, showing an upward trend reaching $18.39 trillion. The x-axis labels quarters from 2003 Q1 to 2024 Q1, and the y-axis shows debt amounts from $0 to $18.0 trillion. Text overlay reads "Total Debt Balance" and includes a legend for housing debt and non-housing debt.
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