To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 15Sep25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in Singapore, the USA, Hong Kong and China.

Observations (Economic Calendar)

Retail Sales and Consumption

Retail sales and retail sales data serve as crucial indicators for understanding consumer consumption trends within the U.S. market. This information provides insight into consumer spending habits and overall economic health.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The most closely watched economic event is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The market has largely anticipated a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut, a sentiment likely influenced by pressure from President Trump. This expectation is already priced into current market positions, which means a decision not to cut rates could introduce significant volatility. The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is complicated by a challenging economic environment characterised by persistent inflation alongside rising unemployment. Some analysts have even suggested that an interest rate increase may be necessary to address the inflationary pressures.

Manufacturing Sector Performance

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a key metric for assessing the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The index's performance serves as an important indication of the sector's current conditions and provides a forward-looking view on its trajectory.

Labour Market Health

Finally, the report on Initial Jobless Claims should be monitored closely. This data point is a vital reference for assessing the overall health of the economy and is another factor that the Federal Reserve considers when determining its interest rate policy.

Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (15Sep25)

There are a few interesting earnings in the coming week that include FactSet, FedEx and Lennar.

Let us look at FedEx, as Logistics is a good reference for the market.

Looking at how busy a company like FedEx is can give you an early hint about where the economy is heading. If they report that their shipping volume is up, it's a good sign. If it's down, it could be an early warning of a potential economic slowdown. This makes them a great "leading indicator" for the stock market and the economy.

Stock Performance & Analyst Consensus

FedEx's stock has experienced a decline, falling 18% over the past year. Technical analysis suggests a neutral rating for the stock. However, a majority of analyst sentiment remains bullish, with a consensus "Buy" rating. The average price target is set at $263.04, representing a potential upside of 14.59% from the current price.

Financial Highlights (2016-2025)

The company has demonstrated long-term growth in its top-line performance.

• Revenue: Grew from $50.3 billion in 2016 to $87.9 billion in 2025. The company's highest revenue year was 2022, reaching $93.5 billion.

• Operating Profit: Increased from $3 billion in 2016 to $5.9 billion in 2025. The most profitable year on record was 2022, with an operating profit of $6.5 billion.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS rose from $6.51 in 2016 to $16.81 in 2025. The company's peak EPS was $19.45 in 2021.

• Valuation & Margins: The company's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 13.2, which is considered attractive. FedEx has also maintained a gross profit margin of 21.5% and a 10-year median free cash flow margin of 2.4%.

Recent news about FedEx

FedEx is undergoing a significant business transformation, focusing on cost-cutting and efficiency to enhance its profitability. The company has recently achieved its fiscal 2025 cost-reduction targets through its "DRIVE" program, which is a key part of its strategy to navigate a challenging economic environment.

To enhance its operations, FedEx acquired RouteSmart Technologies to improve route optimisation and efficiency. A major development is also the company's renewed partnership with Amazon to handle some of its large-package deliveries, a notable change from their previous separation. Looking ahead, FedEx faces continued economic headwinds and strong competition, but its strategic initiatives are aimed at positioning the company for long-term growth and stability.

For the coming earnings, the forecasts are $3.68 for EPS and $21.69 billion for revenue. While this is attractive, there is concern about a global slowdown. The outlook of FedEx can be a good barometer for the global market.

Here is a comparison of the P/E ratios for FedEx and its primary competitors:

Competitors’ P/E Ratio (Supply Chain)

• FedEx (FDX) 13.2

• United Parcel Service (UPS) 12.5

• DHL Group (DHLGY) 13.2

FedEx can be a good consideration for our portfolio, referencing its P/E ratio.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (15Sep25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bullish crossover, which can signal the potential for an uptrend. However, it is important to note that a continuation of the prior downtrend remains a possibility, and this signal should be confirmed with other indicators.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.23, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods. Nevertheless, this buying pressure appears to be weakening, which could signify a loss of momentum.

Technical Analysis is recommending a “strong buy” for daily intervals. 21 indicators show a “Buy” rating and none show a “Sell” rating. There are 2 indicators that show “overbought” and some correction can be in the works.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week

• Short-Term Outlook: The S&P 500 is likely to trend bearish into the week. A neutral scenario could emerge if the price holds with a bullish pattern (e.g., Morning Star) and volume.

• Long-Term Trend: Bearish. The long-term bullish trend has reversed, as confirmed by the Evening Star. The decline potentially supports a sustained bearish trend.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook with a bearish long-term trend, indicating continued correction unless a bullish reversal forms at key support.

Given the above, I am leaning towards a bearish run in the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (15Sep25)

Reporter: “Goldman Sachs says 86% of the tariffs have been paid by American businesses & consumers.” - X user Unusual Whales

A panoramic view of Paris with the Eiffel Tower and other landmarks visible in the skyline. The French flag is prominently displayed in the foreground, waving above a street with buildings and rooftops. Text overlays include "Fitch downgrades crisis-strained France" and date information.

A line chart showing the distribution of US household wealth from 1989 to 2024. Colored bands represent wealth percentages for different income groups: bottom 50% in blue, 50-90% in yellow, 90-99% in red, 99-99.9% in brown, and top 0.1% in purple. The chart indicates a significant increase in wealth concentration, with the bottom 50% holding 2.5% of total US wealth. A red arrow and text box highlight the bottom 50% data point. Bloomberg watermark is present.

The bottom 50% of US households now hold just 2.5% of total US wealth. History says rate cuts with stocks at record highs will lead to even more record highs 12 months from now. Asset owners will party and the wealth gap will widen. Especially as Core CPI inflation is back above 3%. - The Kobeissi Letter

"I haven't been to DC since May. The government is basically unfixable. I applaud David (Sacks') noble efforts...but at the end of the day if you look at our national debt...if AI and robots don't solve our national debt, we're toast." - Elon Musk

President Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China by the entirety of NATO countries if they continue to buy Russian oil. - BRICS News

Nearly 70% of Americans now believe the American dream doesn't hold true or never did, the highest in 15 years of polling on this topic, per WSJ

Margin calls on the Steepening Carry Trade will go parabolic! Because of Long-Dated Bonds’ Convexity. Even if played ISO-duration, the Long 2y UST Note & Short 30y UST - X user Bearry Marshmallow

$13B revenue expected for OpenAI in 2025, and spoke about a contract with Oracle for $300B. It is possible, just really difficult.

US holiday sales set for slowest growth since pandemic, Deloitte report forecasts

The stock market is not the economy. The S&P 500 is not the USA economy. They are some of the top 500 US companies with international business.

Intl postal volumes to the US are down 81%. This is going to have a big earnings drag on international airline revenues, as a significant portion of belly cargo is dedicated to parcels. - X user Craig Fuller

The container shipping industry posted a net income of $4.4 billion for the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant 56% sequential decline from the $9.9 billion earned in Q1, according to maritime financial analyst John McCown. The figure also represents a steep 63.7% year-over-year drop from the $12 billion profit recorded in Q2 2024. - G Captain

People invest to improve their wealth. Expectations need to be managed with market risks, geopolitical, and political divide, with an understanding of macro fundamentals and business sentiments. Consider some hedging, especially with the devaluation of the USD.

My Investing Muse (15Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Elon Musk's xAI fires 500 data annotators working on Grok. The layoffs come amid plans to expand the specialist AI tutor team of the chatbot. - EFTech

• ANZ BANK CEO DISCUSSES JOB CUTS WITH TREASURER ANZ Bank's CEO Nuno Matos speaks with Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers on plans to cut 4,500 jobs. The move raises concerns over the bank's future direction and economic implications, prompting a governmental inquiry into the layoffs. Source: The Australian

• Oracle has initiated another round of global layoffs, firing more than 3000 employees. - Indian Tech & Infra

• Rivian is cutting 200 jobs... just as the $7,500 EV tax credit vanishes. Washington pulled the plug. Now Rivian has to survive on real demand. - Amanda Goodall

• BIG TECH COMPANIES LIKE AMAZON, MICROSOFT, META, ORACLE, SALESFORCE, AND INTEL HAVE CUT THOUSANDS OF JOBS IN 2025. SO FAR, OVER 100,000 TECH WORKERS HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS THIS YEAR AS COMPANIES TRY TO SAVE MONEY AND SHIFT TOWARD AI AND AUTOMATION. - X user First Squawk

• At least 17 trucking and logistics companies filed for bankruptcy in the second quarter of 2025 alone. Dry van truckload contract rates were flat from the same period a year ago, FreightWaves reported. - The Street

These are some of the layoffs & closures which were announced in the past week. It does seem the unemployment and layoffs continue to trend in a worrisome direction.

America’s Federal Deficit

A chart displaying cumulative receipts and outlays for Fiscal Year 2025. Receipts are categorized into individual income taxes, social insurance and retirement, corporation income taxes, customs duties, excise taxes, miscellaneous, and estate and gift taxes, with amounts in billions. Outlays are categorized into social security, Medicare, net interest, health, national defense, income security, education, and other, also in billions. A deficit of $1,973 billion is shown between total receipts of $4,691 billion and total outlays of $6,664 billion.

The US government has incurred a $1.973 trillion deficit through Fiscal Year 2025

A chart titled "Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus/Deficit for August 2025." On the left, green streams show total receipts of $344 billion, divided into individual income taxes ($153 billion), Social Security and Retirement ($114 billion), Customs Duties ($10 billion), Miscellaneous ($8 billion), Corporate Income Taxes ($3 billion), and Excise and Gift Taxes ($2 billion). On the right, blue streams show total outlays of $689 billion, divided into Medicare ($141 billion), Social Security ($134 billion), Net Interest ($54 billion), National Defense ($54 billion), Income Security ($50 billion), Veteran Benefits & Services ($18 billion), Transportation ($14 billion), Education ($14 billion), and Other ($10 billion). A red bar in the center indicates a $345 billion deficit.

In the month of August, the US Government collected $344 billion. Just one problem… They spent $689 billion. A $345 BILLION deficit. In one month. - X user Geiger Capital

A line graph displaying the U.S. Federal Budget Deficit/Surplus as a percentage of GDP from 1920 to 2020. The blue line represents the trailing 12-month deficit/surplus, while a yellow dot marks the latest month, August, showing a significant deficit. Red text highlights "US FEDERAL DEFICIT WAS $345 BILLION FOR AUGUST" with a red circle around the yellow dot. A watermark from Augur Infinity is visible.

The U.S. is running deficits on a crisis scale. August’s $345B shortfall works out to nearly 7% of GDP, a level far above anything seen from the 1950s through the 1990s. For the first 11 months of FY2025, the deficit has already reached $1.97 trillion. That’s the third-largest in U.S. history, and we’re not even done with the year. We’re not steering the ship anymore, we’re just hoping it doesn’t sink. - StockMarket News

33% of US states are already in a RECESSION: Moody’s Analytics finds that states accounting for 1/3 of US GDP are in or at high risk of recession. On the other hand, California, Texas, and New York are holding steady, helping stabilise the national economy. - Financial Times (Moody’s Analytics)

Protection and Hedging Surge

The cost of hedging against a 10% drop in the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, relative to bullish bets has jumped to its highest since the 2022 bear market. The relative cost of hedging has risen by ~40% over the last 5 months. As a result, downside protection on $QQQ is now higher than it has been in all but 8% of recent cases. Investors are adding hedges to protect long equity holdings from a potential market drop. This also signals growing caution ahead of the long-anticipated September Fed meeting next week. All eyes are on the Fed. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

A line graph the S&P 500 Consolidated Hedge Fund Shorts from 2017 to 2023. The y-axis ranges from 0 to 1800, and the x-axis spans from 2017 to 2023. A red circle highlights a peak around September 2022. Text overlay reads "HEDGE FUNDS ARE SHORTING S&P 500 FUTURES AT NEARLY A RECORD PACE."

Hedge funds are shorting the S&P 500 futures at nearly a RECORD pace: Hedge funds short exposure to the S&P 500 futures hit $180 BILLION, an all-time high. As a share of open interest, shorts hit ~27%, the highest in 2.5 years, only below March 2023 and September 2022. - X user Global Markets Investor

More companies, including Hedge Funds, are starting to hedge and short. This suggests the market can be turning bearish. Let us research and consider hedging.

My final thoughts

When the First Amendment is ended by the Second... On one side is grief, and on the other is celebration. Once we celebrate death, do we know that we are sick? If change does not come from the top, it will start from the ground.

The gap and opportunity of American energy is attractive.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

This week, we will focus on reviewing our financial position by analysing our expenditures, income, and savings. Our core principles will be to operate within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage.

Avoid leverage. The market can be irrational longer than we can be solvent.

I am also conducting a review of our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$FedEx(FDX)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$