$Constellation(STZ)$ $Molson Coors(TAP)$ $VictoryShares Pioneer Asset-Based Income ETF(ABI)$ ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐บ๐บ๐ธ Mexican Beer Dominance as US Giants Tank ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐บ๐บ๐ธ
Iโm convinced the US beer market is witnessing one of the sharpest shifts in decades. Mexican beer brands under Constellation ($STZ) have steadily gained share, posting 54% revenue growth since 2020 with a 9.5% CAGR. By contrast, Molson Coors ($TAP) is up only 7.9% over the same period and Anheuser-Busch ($ABI) is in outright decline, down -7.2%. This divergence has never been more clear.
๐ Market Share Breakdown
๐ฒ๐ฝ STZ: +54% (CAGR 9.5%)
๐บ๐ธ TAP: +7.9% (CAGR 1.6%)
๐บ๐ธ ABI: -7.2% (CAGR -1.6%)
๐ Technical Compression and Downside Risk
Iโm watching Constellation ($STZ) sitting at $133, collapsing from the $180s as it approaches critical pandemic lows. Molson Coors ($TAP) tells a similar story, sliding toward the lower liquidity shelf at $47. Anheuser-Busch ($ABI), weighed down by Bud Light volume losses, has already broken trend and is testing decade-level supports.
๐ Trading Lens
Many equities have bounced near their COVID troughs; however, knife catching in structurally weak names is rarely rewarded. If I were forced to frame an entry, Iโd only look at the lower box levels where risk-reward tilts marginally in favor of buyers. Until then, momentum belongs to the downside.
๐โ Do US beer giants face a permanent credibility reset while Constellation cements its dominance, or is this the ultimate contrarian entry point at the COVID lows?
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- Hen Soloยท2025-09-19TOPThe CAGR comparison says it all, STZ pulling 9.5% over four years while ABI shrinks shows a credibility gap thatโs not easy to recover from, Iโm looking at this the way I did $TGT after its reset where only true leaders came back ๐ช3Report
- Cool Cat Winstonยท2025-09-19TOP๐ปIโve been watching this divergence play out for a while and your breakdown nails it, STZ has turned into a real compounder while TAP looks flat and ABI keeps bleeding out, reminds me of how $PEP separated from $KO in growth when tastes shifted.2Report
- Tui Judeยท2025-09-19TOP๐That $133 print on STZ caught my eye too, once brands like Modelo started dominating shelves the writing was on the wall for Bud Light, this feels like the same structural reset we saw with $KHC after their collapse.2Report