To The Moon

Market Outlook of S&P500 (29Sep25)

Technical observations:

• MACD analysis indicates a bearish uptrend with the completed top crossover.

• The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are aligned in an uptrend, which supports a bullish outlook. However, the lines are converging without an overlap. We can expect a convergence to take place in the coming days.

• Both the 50-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MA) are showing an uptrend, suggesting a bullish market sentiment in both the short and long term.

• The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is positive at 0.25, which confirms that there has been an influx of buying volume over the last 20 periods.

Using the technical analysis provided by investing dot com, the S&P 500 has a strong recommendation based on the daily interval. 21 indicators are showing a “Buy” rating, and 2 are showing a “Sell” rating.

Let us look at the candlestick patterns.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (from Grok)

• Short-Term Trend: Bullish. The recent Dragonfly Doji and Upside Gap Three Methods signal strong buying momentum. The +0.59% close on September 22 reflects continued accumulation after the August correction.

• Long-Term Trend: Bullish. The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star from May remain key. The Evening Star (June 22) marked a temporary top, but the recovery invalidates it, suggesting a new uptrend.

• Market Sentiment: Positive, with the PE ratio at ~30, indicating overvaluation, but supported by Nvidia-led gains and expectations of a Fed rate cut, is being overcome.

• Short-Term Outlook: The S&P 500 is likely to trend bearish into the week if selling pressure continues. A neutral scenario could emerge if the price stabilised with a bullish pattern (e.g., Morning Star) and volume indicating a bottom.

• Actionable Insight: Maintain a bearish bias. A break below with high volume; a bounce with a bullish candle and rising volume could signal a reversal.

Given the above, I recommend caution in the coming week. I lean towards a bearish outlook referencing MACD. However, there may be volatility this week due to the various economic data announcements.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$