To The Moon

My Investing Muse (22Sep25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Neiman Marcus mall anchor store to close. The good news, though, is that malls have a prime opportunity to shift into mixed-use properties. - The Street

• The village of Maitland is reeling after the closure of the Invista plant. It will mean a loss of 100 jobs and some worry it’s a sign American companies may be exiting Canada. - CBC

• Veritas Investments, a real estate giant that owns thousands of housing units across the West Coast, has defaulted on $652 million in debt and is facing the foreclosure of 66 buildings in San Francisco - MacroEdge

• Major mattress company closing key factory, laying off workers. Mattress industry sales decline: Q2 2025 sales: 4.3% decline. Q1 2025 sales: $2.4 billion, 5.7% decline. 2024 annual sales: $9.2 billion, 7.7% decline. - The Street

• Layoffs this year:

  • Meta: 8,000

  • Intel: 24,500

  • UPS: 20,000

  • FedEx: 9,000

  • Verizon: 11,000

  • Amazon: 18,000

  • Microsoft: 15,000

  • Citigroup: 20,000

  (From X user Andrew Lokenauth)

• ACCENTURE AXES OVER 11,000 JOBS IN 3 MONTHS — WARNS MORE STAFF WILL BE CUT IF THEY CAN’T BE RETRAINED FOR THE AGE OF AI - First Squawk

• BREAKING: US manufacturing and construction are experiencing recession-like conditions, per FT

• Citigroup cut 3,500 tech jobs in China. Now Citigroup moves almost 1,000 tech jobs to India after it cuts workforce in China. •Shanghai & Dalian engineers made $18K–$22K/yr. •In India it’s $9K–$12K/yr. •In the Philippines it’s $7K–$9K/yr. Citi isn’t cutting back on tech, they’re trading $18K engineers for $9K engineers. So if $18K/yr labor is now “too expensive”… what chance do $120K/yr U.S. jobs really have? - X user Amanda Goodall

• ODP has closed over 1,000 stores since its 2013 merger, reducing its store count by about 55%. - The Street

• CVS Health’s long-term care pharmacy subsidiary Omnicare LLC and 110 affiliates filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Sept. 22, seeking to resolve issues related to a recent $948.7 million U.S. Department of Justice civil judgment against the company. - The Street

• PwC Cuts 1,500 Jobs & 60 Partners in Middle East After Clash With Saudi Sovereign Fund - The 420

A screenshot of a social media post with black text on a white background. The text lists four bullet points about American companies laying off U.S. technology workers while receiving H-1B visa approvals. Names mentioned include Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, and Salesforce.

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Suspends the Entry of Certain Alien Nonimmigrant Workers

Bullet 1 appears to be Microsoft, as 16,000 was my number right when July layoff news broke.

Bullet 2 appears to be Intel as the cut about 2,400 jobs in Oregon (at least as of end of July 2025.)

Bullet 3 is Amazon- you can read my Substack for proof of the 27,000 layoffs since 2022... and many news sources - it’s not a hidden fact.

Bullet 4, I believe this could be Salesforce? Not positive 100% as the approvals #s don’t quite line up (it’s just a bit lower)- anyone have sources to prove who it is?

A line graph tracking the unemployment rate for men aged 16–24 with a bachelor’s degree or higher, not enrolled in school, from 1980 to 2025. The y-axis shows percentages from 0.0 to 17.5, and the x-axis spans years. Blue vertical bars indicate fluctuations, with a sharp peak in August 2025 marked by a red box and labeled "Aug 2025: 13.8%".

The unemployment rate for men aged 16–24 with a bachelor’s degree or higher and not enrolled in school jumped to 13.8% in August, the highest since June 2020. This figure has DOUBLED in just 4 months. Over the last 40 years, there have been only a few times when this percentage was higher, including 2001 and 2008. By comparison, the unemployment rate for women rose to 7.1% last month, in line with historical levels. Meanwhile, the overall youth unemployment rate hit 10.5%, the highest in 9 years outside the 2020–2021 pandemic. Young men are being hit hardest in the labour market slowdown. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

Every 1 high-wage tech layoff kills 2–3 jobs around it. So when tech cuts 100,000 roles… You’re not looking at 100,000 jobs gone. That’s 100,000 direct tech jobs, 100,000 contractors, vendors, recruiters, 50,000 service roles - janitorial, security, admin, 50,000+ support jobs (cafés, retail, logistics)

Total: up to 300,000 jobs wiped out. The ripple hits cities first. Then industries. And it doesn’t happen all at once. It lags. It spreads. It starts before the layoffs even land too... especially when cuts are pre-announced. - X user Amanda Goodall

I came across the above posts on what unemployment, closure and bankruptcy are. Depending on the innovation and AI adoption, will the job loss be expedited or delayed?

How can the Supply Chain be a recession indicator?

A line chart displaying U.S. heavy truck sales in millions from 1979 to 2024. A recession indicator line runs parallel, showing peaks and troughs. Red markers highlight significant events: 1987 market crash, 1994 Fed rate hikes, 2008 company collapse, 2014-2016 commodity price collapse, and 2023-2025 post-pandemic era. Text labels identify these events and periods on the chart.

US heavy trucking is falling, a possible recession signal, per Bloomberg, RMS

A line chart displaying the Outbound Tender Volume Index for the United States, labeled as OTR/USA. Multiple colored lines, including blue, pink, and green, track freight transaction data over time from March to December. The chart includes numerical values like 12,000,000 and 10,000,000 on the y-axis, and dates on the x-axis. A SONAR watermark is visible.

We can see the activity of the goods economy by looking at freight transactions. After all, companies don’t move freight unless there is demand on the other end. This is a chart of the US domestic freight market. The goods economy is in real trouble. Domestic freight transactions are down 12% YoY. - X user Craig Fuller

The freight recession is a bipartisan creation. It started in March 2022, at the tail end of COVID. The initial trigger was slowing goods demand and excess product inventory, which happened while services and travel kicked up from pent-up demand. Meanwhile, the trucking industry had added 28% more trucks on the road in just 2 years (2020-2022). New entrants had joined the trucking industry because of massive COVID stimulus (SBA & PPP loans) and the massive surge in COVID goods demand. Open borders allowed the trucking industry to find new workers. Immigrants flooded the industry (trucking jobs are easy to find), and States were willing to issue CDLs to unlicensed people to work and had never passed a US CDL test (believing they were helping mitigate a “driver shortage”). Late last year, it appeared the freight recession was finally ending. It had been 2.5 years, and a lot of the excess capacity had churned out of the industry.

The Fed started to cut interest rates, and the new administration created hope for lower regulation and tax cuts. Demand kicked in. But then the trade war started in February of 2025. It hurt investment and hiring because it caused uncertainty. Manufacturing slowed. Then the housing market collapsed due to lack of affordability. This was only made worse because the Fed misjudged the impact of tariffs on long-term product inflation, holding interest rates higher, sapping investment. The freight recession started out as a capacity problem under Biden and has continued to get worse under Trump. No single Administration is to blame. They are both responsible for the worst freight recession in history. - X user Craig Fuller

A line graph titled Cass Freight Index (SA) showing freight shipments within North America. The y-axis ranges from 0.9 to 1.3, and the x-axis spans from 2010 to 2025. A blue line fluctuates, peaking around 2015 and declining sharply from 2020, with a red box highlighting a recent drop to 1.0 in August. The Augur logo watermark is present in the bottom right corner.

US freight is in a recession: The Cass Freight Index dropped -9.3% YoY in August, hitting its lowest level since 2020. This index tracks freight shipments within North America and serves as a key gauge of US shipping activity. August marks its 28th consecutive monthly decline. Freight shipments have now fallen -20% over the last 3 years. The last time such a prolonged fall occurred was during the 2008 Financial Crisis. Goods movement in the US is slowing sharply. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

The sharp and prolonged decline in U.S. freight activity, driven by economic shifts, policy decisions, and external factors, serves as a strong indicator of a broader economic downturn, potentially signalling a recession.

My final thoughts

While the market surges towards record highs, there is concerns about the economy and the AI bubble.

Relying solely on the S&P 500 Index is insufficient for assessing the true state of the economy. While the reported 3.8% quarterly US GDP growth (Q2) is important, a more accurate economic evaluation requires a breakdown of data across different social income groups. This disaggregated approach is necessary to gain a better understanding of the overall economic situation.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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