$Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Baidu(BIDU)$ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ Alibabaโs AI Surge vs JDโs Asymmetric Setup ๐๐ฅ๐๐
Iโm calling this the hedge fund playbook split in ๐จ๐ณ China tech right now; BABA is the institutional growth darling, already re-rated on AI and cloud dominance, while JD is sitting in plain sight as the fundsโ favourite convex bet; a risk-defined asymmetry with multi-bagger potential if sentiment flips. This isnโt momentum chasing; itโs the kind of setup top PMs describe as mispriced optionality with real teeth.
๐ค Alibabaโs AI & Cloud Catalyst
BABA is surging in Hong Kong after bullish calls on its AI and cloud momentum.
Morningstar hiked fair value by 49%, while Morgan Stanley boosted their price target by 21%. Nvidia partnership headlines and accelerated AI capex have amplified conviction. The stock is up 50% in September, its best month since 2019.
๐ BABA Valuation & Trend
Trading near $171โ177 with strong technical momentum, BABA is riding consistent EMA support. The 4H chart shows Keltner + Bollinger channels trending higher with clean reaccumulation. Overnight flows confirm sustained bid interest.
๐ JD.com โ The Asymmetrical Opportunity
If you missed the BABA or BIDU run, JD is shaping up as one of the most asymmetric setups in the market right now.
โข Current price: $34.50 ($34.83 in Overnight Trading)
โข Fair value (Morningstar): $122.77 โ 71.9% undervalued
โข Technicals: Above $33 support, 90% probability of gap-fill run to $40. Weekly chart anchored by the 9 EMA curl with confirmation from the 21 EMA. Downtrend break sets momentum into the $40 zone.
โข Options lens: JD $39c exp. 03Oct trading at $0.13 (IV ~68%). Delta ~0.22, Gamma elevated at 0.09, Theta only -0.01 per day, Vega ~0.05. This means the contract has modest sensitivity to spot now but accelerates quickly if price moves toward $40. The convexity is powerful; a $2โ3 rally could double Delta and sharply expand premium. With low Theta bleed and manageable Vega exposure, this is a clean, risk-defined way to capture the $40 breakout setup.
๐ฆ JD Fundamentals
JD is one of Chinaโs largest e-commerce platforms, supported by Chinaโs most extensive fulfillment network. Annual revenue base exceeds $150B+, and AI-driven logistics efficiencies are improving profitability. Relative to peers like Alibaba and Pinduoduo, JD trades at a deeply compressed P/E multiple, making it a hybrid value-growth play if Chinaโs consumer demand stabilises.
โ๏ธ Risk-Reward Lens
JD at $34.50 vs fair value $122.77 presents one of the cleanest asymmetries in the China tech complex. Option convexity at the $39 strike is a tactical expression with defined risk. Structurally, fundamentals and technicals align for a potential $40 breakout.
๐โWhich side would you lean into here: the established BABA AI/cloud momentum play, or the convex asymmetry in JDโs undervaluation setup?
๐ฐ Closing Thought: The real edge isnโt in predicting the next tick; itโs in recognising when the market has left money on the table. BABA is already priced as tomorrowโs winner; JD is still priced as yesterdayโs story.
๐ข Donโt miss out! Like, Repost and Follow me for exclusive setups, cutting-edge trends, and insights that move markets ๐๐ Iโm obsessed with hunting down the next big movers and sharing strategies that crush it. Letโs outsmart the market and stack those gains together! ๐
Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC ๐๐๐๐๐
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