To The Moon

My Investing Muse (06Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

A bar chart displaying employers\' planned job additions in the US from 2011 to 2025, with data points for each September. Green bars vary in height, representing the number of jobs, with the y-axis labeled up to 1,000,000 and the x-axis showing years. The 2025 bar is notably low. Text overlay reads "Employers in US Dial Back Hiring Intentions, Planned job additions were the weakest for any September since 2011" and includes the Bloomberg watermark.

• Auto Parts Supplier First Brands Group Bankruptcy’s Spells Potential Trouble for Loads of People Who Own a Car, Truck, or SUV - MotorTrend

• NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Two auto sector bankruptcies have rattled parts of the U.S. credit market, raising concerns about a deterioration in the financial health of low-income households and migrant communities.

A 3D rendering of the U.S. Capitol building with a red sign in front displaying "Sorry We\'re Closed" in white text.

• The U.S. government has now officially shut down, marking its first shutdown since 2019. Imagine explaining to another country: “Yeah, we just… turn it off sometimes. - Stock Market News

• BREAKING: Exxon is cutting 2,000 jobs. That’s 3–4% of its entire workforce. We are just about at my Supermajors job cuts prediction for the year. BP 4700 +contractors Chevron 9000 announced Exxon 2000 Plus we have Imperial 1000 just announced Hess 575 ConocoPhillips 2500-3200 Halliburton (numbers still coming in) - X user Amanda Goodall

• MILAN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Stellantis has slashed nearly 10,000 jobs in Italy in the past four years, while vehicle production, including vans and small trucks, more than halved since 2004, the Fiom-Cgil union reported on Monday.

• WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - More than 150,000 federal employees will leave the U.S. government payroll this week after accepting buyouts - the largest single-year exodus of civil servants in nearly 80 years, triggering what unions and governance experts warn is a damaging loss of institutional expertise.

• Imperial Oil (Canada) is planning to slash about 20 per cent of its workforce by the end of 2027 as part of a restructuring plan. That would affect about 1,000 jobs, based on an employee count of 5,100 as of Dec. 31 of 2024. - Castanet

• Starbucks announced that the company would be closing about 1% of its North America stores by the end of the quarter, ending the fiscal year with 18,300 Starbucks cafes in the U.S. and in Canada. Starbucks should close 434 locations by the end of Q4. - Yahoo News

• Walmart plans to maintain a headcount of around 2.1 million workers across the world over the next three years, though the mix of these jobs are expected to change, Walmart’s chief people officer Donna Morris said, according to The Journal. - Yahoo Finance

• Exxon Mobil will lay off 2,000 workers globally, particularly in Canada and across the European Union, as part of a long-term restructuring plan that will affect about 3% to 4% of the company’s workforce. About 1,200 positions will be cut in Norway and the EU by the end of 2027. - Reuters 30Sep25

• US government shutdown to furlough 41% of health agency workers | Reuters

• Deloitte has slashed hiring and cut back on promotions for its most senior staff as it warned an economic slowdown was harming UK investment. The accountancy giant has reduced the number of new recruits joining the firm and promoted fewer managers to partner level amid “continued economic headwinds”. - Telegraph

The unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds is now at 10.5%, per Bloomberg

A key difference between 1998-99 and today is back then the US was adding 250,000 jobs per month and in Q4 2025 it might be zero - X user Conor Sen

Is this sustainable?

Other indicators for a recession

Truck sales are collapsing. Which almost always means a recession has already started. - X user Spencer Hakimian

A chart displaying the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average from 1998 to 2023. Two line graphs show price movements, with the Industrial Average in black and the Transportation Average in blue. Red and green arrows indicate key points, and text annotations highlight highs, lows, and divergences. A watermark from ShitMyChartSays is visible.

Dow Theory Crash Indicator: Every single major crash over the last 100 years had the same setup: DJIA hit a new high, but the transports failed to do the same (1929, 1937, 1966-1975, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020). And when transports fail to confirm the DJIA high, the wheels come off the bus and all equities veer offroad and Thelma & Louise it off the nearest cliff. Why do I mention this? Well, low and behold, you`ll see the chart shows that`s it`s precisely where we are today...DJIA hit another ATH but transports have failed to reach their own new high, after last setting one in February. Transports currently sit 4% below that mark. Bulls with net long equity positions are very likely picking up pennies in front of a freight train barreling down the tracks. Do you feel lucky? (Spoiler: Your answer is no) - X user Sh!tmychartsays

My final thoughts

Institutional investors are cashing in gains: Investors sold -$4.7 billion of US equities last week, driven by single stocks. Outflows from single stocks rose by $500 million, to -$5.7 billion, making the last 2-week outflow the 3rd-largest since 2008. This was led by institutional investors who dumped -$3.6 billion, the most since June, after -$1.4 billion in the prior week. Hedge funds sold -$1.3 billion, posting their 3rd consecutive weekly outflow. Meanwhile, retail investors turned to buying for the first time in four weeks, at +$200 million. Wall Street is selling to Main Street again. - The Kobeissi Letter

I recommend caution as Wall Street is selling to Main Street over the last 2 weeks.

Main Street can end up falling with a Wall Street rug pull, holding the bags of overvalued stocks in our arms. Avoid leverage, as our pain can compound much more than our gains.

When a government shuts down, there will be a loss or decline in some functionality, even though key functions remain active.

This brings uncertainty both domestically and internationally. Different theories have surfaced concerning the reasons, and one of the “feeds” includes a reduction in the federal workforce. This erodes the country's reliability and professionalism, potentially leaving citizens and partners stranded.

Finger-pointing is normal in politics. Yet the citizens and partners should not be paying a “higher” price. When people feel let down by the system, they begin to consider alternative systems (outside of democracy and capitalism). Fundamental shifts are coming, and there will be a potential tipping point. Change can come voluntarily or be forced.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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