To The Moon

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ In this article, I’m going to share why I’ve been following $TSM closely. There’s a confluence of powerful catalysts unfolding across technicals, fundamentals, and options flow that signals something much larger is brewing beneath the surface.

✨ Explosive Options Flow Lights the Fuse

I’m starting with what immediately caught my attention today. A single buyer stepped in for $413K worth of TSM $325 weekly calls, expiring 17Oct25, during a 10-minute burst where 2,151 contracts traded with an average fill of $1.64. That kind of focused premium deployment, especially ahead of earnings season and within a macro tape still recalibrating post-CPI, isn’t casual flow. It often precedes a meaningful directional push, and I’m positioning my lens accordingly.

📊 Technical Structure Points to Breakout

From a technical standpoint, the 4H chart has been structurally bullish since early October. Price has been hugging the upper Keltner and Bollinger bands, riding stacked EMAs (13, 21, 55) that are fanning out with strength. After a brief shakeout into $276, TSM snapped back sharply, reclaiming the $300 zone with conviction. The 301.72 close marked a 7.49% daily gain, confirming dip absorption and renewed trend alignment. I’m closely watching $310 as the near-term upside trigger, with $325 as the potential extension if momentum persists. On the daily, the bullish structure remains intact, supported by a consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, while intraday flows are showing aggressive bid stacking at the 300 level.

🌐 Fundamentals Back the Momentum

TSM just reported September revenue of NT$330.98B (US$10.8B), up 31.4% YoY and only marginally softer MoM. Revenue for January–September surged 36.4% YoY to NT$2.76T, underlining the sustained secular demand. In Q2 2025, revenue jumped 38.6% YoY to NT$933.79B, driven by High Performance Computing, which grew 103% YoY and now represents 60% of revenue. Automotive grew 45%, IoT rose 32%, and smartphone revenues accelerated 12% as AI-driven features ramped. Net income climbed 60.7% YoY with a 42.7% margin, while operating margins expanded to 49.6%.

🤖 TSMC’s Roadmap to a $1T Semiconductor Market

Strategically, TSMC just laid out its roadmap to a $1T semiconductor market by 2030. Data center AI accelerators dominate today’s demand, but by the end of the decade AI PCs, smartphones, AR/XR, robo taxis, and humanoid robotics are set to become the volume engines. This diversification is crucial because it distributes silicon intensity across multiple end markets, reducing single-segment cyclicality. TSMC sits at the center of this transformation. It now commands 71% of the global pure foundry market, a level of dominance that is historically unmatched. Every major AI player including $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMD, and $QCOM relies on TSMC’s advanced nodes to turn their designs into production reality. The entire ecosystem effectively runs through their fabs.

📌 Levels I’m Watching

When I line up the options activity, the technical recovery structure, and the fundamental acceleration, the probability-weighted framework leans bullish. I’m watching for sustained closes above $310 to open the door for a test of the $325 call wall. A failure to hold $288 would be my early warning signal that momentum is stalling. These levels will dictate whether today’s aggressive call buying was smart money front-running a breakout or simply opportunistic positioning into elevated expectations.

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