To The Moon

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Recently, I received a great question from a friendr:

> “AI is everywhere now. From GPUs and memory chips to cloud computing and power utilities — and now you’re talking about copper.

With so many related companies and industries, how can one person possibly invest in all of them?”

This question perfectly captures the dilemma many investors face today.

It reveals that deep sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) and choice anxiety that grips us whenever we’re confronted with a massive structural transformation.

We’re afraid of missing the next Nvidia, the next Oracle, afraid that our portfolios aren’t “AI enough.”

So we chase every hot theme, our portfolios become increasingly scattered and messy — and our returns, increasingly mediocre.

My answer is simple:

> “What you really need is not to chase every hot stock, but to understand the big picture — so you can make decisions with confidence.”

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🗺️ Think of AI as a New Gold Rush

In this gold rush, your job isn’t to run blindly from mine to mine.

It’s to step back and draw a map.

And the point of drawing that map isn’t to visit every site on it —

it’s to help you see three things more clearly:

1️⃣ the sequence of transmission,

2️⃣ the bottlenecks of value, and

3️⃣ the timing for action.

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Step 1: Understand the “Ripple Effect” and Timing Gaps

The most important part of understanding any industrial chain is grasping the ripple effect — how demand travels down the line, layer by layer, over time.

AI demand is like a stone thrown into a lake.

Its impact spreads outward in concentric waves — and each wave arrives with a time lag.

A classic example:

> Cloud giants (e.g. Microsoft) place orders →

GPU designer (Nvidia) sees revenue growth →

Foundries (TSMC) get booked out →

Semiconductor equipment makers (ASML) receive new orders.

Each link in that chain experiences the impact at a different time — from receiving the order, to recording it in financial results, to seeing it reflected in stock prices.

Stock prices react first, but revenue and profits materialise sequentially.

Once you understand this time lag, you’ll stop chasing what’s hot right now.

Instead, you’ll start asking: What does this company’s earnings report actually represent in the larger value chain?

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Step 2: Identify “Bottlenecks” and “Value Valleys”

With the map drawn, you can ask two far more valuable questions:

1️⃣ Which part of the chain is the bottleneck?

In recent years, that bottleneck has been Nvidia’s GPUs — whoever controls supply holds pricing power.

But what about the future? Could the bottleneck shift to power supply, or even further upstream to transformers and copper?

Within each bottleneck, which companies have real moats?

2️⃣ Which segments remain undervalued by the market?

That’s where “value valleys” lie.

When GPUs and cloud platforms already trade at lofty valuations, the more “boring” industries — like power utilities or industrial manufacturers — may quietly become the new stars, precisely because AI gives them renewed strategic importance.

Their value may not yet be fully priced in.

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Step 3: Choose Your Game Plan

Once you truly understand the industry’s structure and transmission mechanisms, you can make calm, confident choices.

That doesn’t mean investing in every link — it means choosing the path that suits you best.

Path 1: Buy the whole ecosystem.

After your research, you might conclude that AI’s overall growth is certain, but picking winners within it is too hard.

So you buy an ETF like SOXX to own the entire semiconductor chain.

That’s not laziness — it’s conviction through understanding.

You hold with confidence because you see the system’s potential, not because you heard a rumour.

Path 2: Wait for your moment.

Maybe you discover that a key segment (say, power infrastructure) hasn’t yet hit its inflection point.

So you put those companies on your watchlist — and wait.

That opportunity might come six months or a year later.

When earnings finally surge, or when panic leads to temporary mispricing, you’ll know when to strike.

Your knowledge gives you the patience to wait — and the courage to act.

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The True Value of Knowledge: Calm Confidence

So, back to the original question:

With so many AI-related industries, what should investors do?

The answer: Get your map right first.

Studying the value chain isn’t meant to make you more anxious or scatterbrained.

It’s meant to give you clarity — a reliable compass for the storm.

Knowledge gives you choice:

You can confidently embrace the entire ecosystem, or lie in wait like a sniper for the right, high-certainty shot.

In the end, the value of knowledge isn’t about knowing everything.

It’s about staying composed and grounded when the market is swept up by greed or fear.

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