To The Moon

The US investment in AI seems to be surging, But apart from the well-known large science and technology enterprises, the investment expenditure of the local government and other enterprises is actually relatively limited. According to Harvard University economist Jason Furman, the current capital expenditure on AI in the United States is about 1% of GDP, significantly lower than the historical investment frenzy, such as railway expansion in the 1980s (the related CAPEX accounted for about 6% of GDP), electrification reform in the 1920s (3 percent), Science Networks and Broadband Investment in the 2000s (5 percent). From this perspective, if AI is truly a once-in-a-century innovation, the current US investment might be "inadequate" rather than "over-due". Furthermore, the US's past investme

$Home Depot(HD)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results on November 18, 2025, before the market open (BMO). Consensus Expectations The general consensus suggests a modest increase in the top and bottom lines year-over-year, but concerns remain about the pace of discretionary spending. Key Trends and Challenges The quarter is expected to reflect mixed consumer behavior influenced by the current economic environment: Strength in Pro Segment: Home Depot's professional (Pro) customer segment, which deals with larger projects, is expected to remain a key growth driver, supported by the "One Home Depot" strategy and recent acquisitions like GMS. DIY & Big-Ticket Weakness: Demand for high-ticket discretionary items (e.g., kitchen/

$Manulife(MFC)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q3 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, with the conference call the following morning. Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast and Expectations Based on analyst consensus, expectations are generally positive for the quarter, though the growth rate is modest compared to the previous year's beat. EPS Growth: The consensus forecast of $0.74 represents a slight increase over the $0.73 reported in the same quarter last year. Recent Trends: Manulife has generally shown operational strength, with nearly half of life insurers in the sector recently exceeding expectations on a reported or core basis. However, their Q1 and Q2 2025 results were slight misses against consensus EPS. Man

Earnings Calendar (10Nov25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Monday, Occidental, Cisco, Disney and Sea Limited. Let us look at Sea Limited in detail. Market Performance and Outlook Year-over-Year Stock Performance: The stock price has experienced a significant increase, rising 60.3% from a year ago. Analyst Consensus and Price Target: The consensus analyst sentiment is a Strong Buy rating. The established price target of $196.56 implies a substantial 31.16% potential upside from the current share price. Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators are recommending a Strong Sell rating, which presents a divergence from fundame

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore. Key Economic Data & Events Inflation & Monetary Indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%. Bond Market Sentiment Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction. The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment. A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore. Key Economic Data & Events Inflation & Monetary Indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%. Bond Market Sentiment Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction. The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment. A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Labo

Watch out for Oracle’s debts. Oracle’s 5-year Credit Default Swap spiked to 81 basis pts, the highest in 2 YEARS. Credit traders are buying protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt at the fastest pace since 2023. Can Oracle sustain its aggressive AI buildout? - X user Global Markets Investor $Oracle(ORCL)$

Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller (CNBC interview): "Well, we should be worried. The goods economy, certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. So, year over year trucking volumes, this is really predominance of freight that moves across the United States, is down 17%". "But when you look at the industrial sectors, or the the freight that moves over the long haul, this is energy, automotive, housing and manufacturing, we're down 30% year over year, which is very great financial crisis, levels of concern." $PROSHARES SUPPLY CHAIN LOGISTICS ETF(SUPL)$   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  

Refinancing pressures compound the problem of fiscal management. By the end of 2025, about a third of marketable debt, worth US$9.2 trillion, would have matured, with a further US$9 trillion maturing in 2026. - Deloitte This propels the government's intend to lower the interest rates. We should see more money printing in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how inflation will behave. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  

FactSet: 10 out of 11 sectors are reporting Y/Y revenue growth and 8 out of 11 sectors are reporting earnings growth for Q3. Revenue does not always translate into profits.  Watch out for sectors like comms. Services, energy and consumer Staples.  $IREN Ltd(IREN)$  

The idea of using Pfizer (PFE) as a hedge against a potential AI bubble pop is generally supported by its characteristics as a defensive stock in the healthcare/pharmaceutical sector. Rationale for Pfizer as a Hedge Defensive Sector: The demand for pharmaceutical products is considered inelastic because people need medication regardless of the economic climate. Unlike high-flying tech companies sensitive to economic downturns, drug sales and healthcare expenditures tend to be more resilient, offering a degree of insulation during a market crash. Low Correlation: The pharmaceutical sector, especially large-cap companies like Pfizer, typically has a lower correlation to the highly volatile technology indices (like the NASDAQ 100). A sharp sell-off in AI/tech stocks may not equally impact the

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Nov25) Oracle is facing a MASSIVE debt problem: Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 500%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA is far above AI peers. The cost to insure its debt is near the highest since October 2023 as banks prepare a $38 BILLION deal to fund data centres for AI infrastructure. - X user Global Markets Investor Elon Musk says within the next 5–6 years, there will be no conventional mobile phones, no apps or operating systems, and most of the content people consume will be generated by AI. - X user DogeDesigner A growing share of Americans now owe more on their car loans than the vehicles are actually worth, per Edmunds. During the third quarter, 28.1% of trade-ins were underwater, the highest level since early 2021. On average, these “upside

Earnings Calendar (03Nov25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Palantir, Uber, Pfizer, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Airbnb, BP and AMD. Let us look at McDonald’s. Stock Performance & Valuation Year-over-Year Growth: The stock price has increased by 4.8% compared to one year ago. Analyst Sentiment: Technical Analysis: Recommends a “Strong Sell.” Analyst Consensus: Recommends a “Buy.” Price Target: The current price target is $330, which implies a potential upside of 10.61%. P/E Ratio: The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.4. Revenue and Profitability Trends Revenue: Annual revenue grew from $25.4 billion in 2015 to a 1

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News and my thoughts from the past week (27Oct25) S&P 500 Growth divided by S&P 500 Value is right now testing some big, bad, bold resistance. - X user Jeff Weniger Fatality rates involving heavy-duty trucks have increased by 40% over the past decade. Culprit: the elimination of training standards and issuance of a CDL to anyone. - X user Craig Fuller President Trump says he is raising tariffs on Canada by 10% “over and above what they are paying now.” BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. This percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentage began facing the same situation over

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision. Forecast: A decrea

Profits remain on paper until it is realised. If you need some money, consider taking some profits.

Previously I talked about rare metals and China’s dominance on rare earth metals. Ones that are particularly crucial to manufacturing of core technologies that drive the chip industry or to be used in chips themselves. Now, many have been telling me, if that were really true, why are US tech stocks looking more attractive than ever. This begs the question, is software detached enough from hardware that these so called “Magnificent 7” can run independent of the hardware? Well, I am not going to directly answer this question of technology stocks now, I will over the next few posts. What I want to talk about is positions in the US in general, and it is linked to tech stocks (and unfortunately AI). As much as I love AI, hearing the word AI everywhere I go to is pretty annoying, all I want to d

Long puts on market indexes like S&P 500$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is simply the most straightforward way to hedge against the AI bubble if any. Thanks @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

it is not a bubble. If everyone is speaking about a bubble that mean its still not one yet just over valued where everyone is on sideline waiting to buy the dip so the mm will push it higher

$Home Depot(HD)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results on November 18, 2025, before the market open (BMO). Consensus Expectations The general consensus suggests a modest increase in the top and bottom lines year-over-year, but concerns remain about the pace of discretionary spending. Key Trends and Challenges The quarter is expected to reflect mixed consumer behavior influenced by the current economic environment: Strength in Pro Segment: Home Depot's professional (Pro) customer segment, which deals with larger projects, is expected to remain a key growth driver, supported by the "One Home Depot" strategy and recent acquisitions like GMS. DIY & Big-Ticket Weakness: Demand for high-ticket discretionary items (e.g., kitchen/

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore. Key Economic Data & Events Inflation & Monetary Indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%. Bond Market Sentiment Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction. The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment. A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Labo

$Manulife(MFC)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q3 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, with the conference call the following morning. Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast and Expectations Based on analyst consensus, expectations are generally positive for the quarter, though the growth rate is modest compared to the previous year's beat. EPS Growth: The consensus forecast of $0.74 represents a slight increase over the $0.73 reported in the same quarter last year. Recent Trends: Manulife has generally shown operational strength, with nearly half of life insurers in the sector recently exceeding expectations on a reported or core basis. However, their Q1 and Q2 2025 results were slight misses against consensus EPS. Man

The US investment in AI seems to be surging, But apart from the well-known large science and technology enterprises, the investment expenditure of the local government and other enterprises is actually relatively limited. According to Harvard University economist Jason Furman, the current capital expenditure on AI in the United States is about 1% of GDP, significantly lower than the historical investment frenzy, such as railway expansion in the 1980s (the related CAPEX accounted for about 6% of GDP), electrification reform in the 1920s (3 percent), Science Networks and Broadband Investment in the 2000s (5 percent). From this perspective, if AI is truly a once-in-a-century innovation, the current US investment might be "inadequate" rather than "over-due". Furthermore, the US's past investme

Earnings Calendar (10Nov25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Monday, Occidental, Cisco, Disney and Sea Limited. Let us look at Sea Limited in detail. Market Performance and Outlook Year-over-Year Stock Performance: The stock price has experienced a significant increase, rising 60.3% from a year ago. Analyst Consensus and Price Target: The consensus analyst sentiment is a Strong Buy rating. The established price target of $196.56 implies a substantial 31.16% potential upside from the current share price. Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators are recommending a Strong Sell rating, which presents a divergence from fundame

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision. Forecast: A decrea

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Nov25) Oracle is facing a MASSIVE debt problem: Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 500%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA is far above AI peers. The cost to insure its debt is near the highest since October 2023 as banks prepare a $38 BILLION deal to fund data centres for AI infrastructure. - X user Global Markets Investor Elon Musk says within the next 5–6 years, there will be no conventional mobile phones, no apps or operating systems, and most of the content people consume will be generated by AI. - X user DogeDesigner A growing share of Americans now owe more on their car loans than the vehicles are actually worth, per Edmunds. During the third quarter, 28.1% of trade-ins were underwater, the highest level since early 2021. On average, these “upside

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 🕒 20 Oct 2025 🇳🇿 | VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) & SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) I’m tracking $GDX and $GLD as they carve out what could become one of the most powerful multi-year surges in modern markets. $GDX trades near $78.73 and $GLD around $389; every chart, flow, and macro signal still points higher. 📊 Technical Analysis: Decoding the Charts I’m watching $GDX’s monthly inverse-hammer candle form above $78. If it closes here, it confirms a topping-path breakout, the same pattern that triggered 100 % plus runs from past cycle lows. Fibonacci projections mark the path to $85 → $93.6 → $104 →

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Oct25) S&P 500 Growth divided by S&P 500 Value is right now testing some big, bad, bold resistance. - X user Jeff Weniger Fatality rates involving heavy-duty trucks have increased by 40% over the past decade. Culprit: the elimination of training standards and issuance of a CDL to anyone. - X user Craig Fuller President Trump says he is raising tariffs on Canada by 10% “over and above what they are paying now.” BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. This percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentage began facing the same situation over

The idea of using Pfizer (PFE) as a hedge against a potential AI bubble pop is generally supported by its characteristics as a defensive stock in the healthcare/pharmaceutical sector. Rationale for Pfizer as a Hedge Defensive Sector: The demand for pharmaceutical products is considered inelastic because people need medication regardless of the economic climate. Unlike high-flying tech companies sensitive to economic downturns, drug sales and healthcare expenditures tend to be more resilient, offering a degree of insulation during a market crash. Low Correlation: The pharmaceutical sector, especially large-cap companies like Pfizer, typically has a lower correlation to the highly volatile technology indices (like the NASDAQ 100). A sharp sell-off in AI/tech stocks may not equally impact the

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Oct25) Jenson says Nvidia goes “from 95% market share to 0%” in China, and that he “cannot imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea. Whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%. ”In a separate interview, he effectively says that he might have lost the US in the AI race. Because, as he puts it, “winning” the AI race means that “80% of the world uses the American tech stack” and that, given that China on its own is “50% of AI research” and “30% of the technology market”, then them not using the American tech stack means that by definition America is “forfeiting and conceding” the AI race. In that separate interview he also completely ridicules the narrative - used by the US to justif

Previously I talked about rare metals and China’s dominance on rare earth metals. Ones that are particularly crucial to manufacturing of core technologies that drive the chip industry or to be used in chips themselves. Now, many have been telling me, if that were really true, why are US tech stocks looking more attractive than ever. This begs the question, is software detached enough from hardware that these so called “Magnificent 7” can run independent of the hardware? Well, I am not going to directly answer this question of technology stocks now, I will over the next few posts. What I want to talk about is positions in the US in general, and it is linked to tech stocks (and unfortunately AI). As much as I love AI, hearing the word AI everywhere I go to is pretty annoying, all I want to d

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ fiscal Q3 2025 earnings release is expected on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, after market close. Expected Earnings Per Share (EPS): The Zacks Consensus Estimate is for EPS of $1.99 (Non-GAAP), representing an anticipated year-over-year increase of approximately +8.2% from the $1.84$ reported in Q3 2024. Expected Revenue: The consensus estimate for revenue is $2.41 billion, which would mark a strong year-over-year increase of approximately +18.2% from the $2.04$ billion reported in Q3 2024. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary Intuitive Surgical delivered a strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, with results generally exceeding analyst expectations, driven by robust procedure volume

The buzz around an “AI bubble” is deafening, with NVIDIA’s $4.56 trillion cap, Tesla’s $1.5 trillion surge, and a custom AI index up 100% YTD signaling euphoric heights. The S&P 500 at 6,700 reflects solid gains, but the 200% AI rally since January raises red flags of a potential pop. Smart investors want to capture the final leg of this boom while keeping an escape pod ready. How do you hedge without bailing too early? This guide breaks down the risks, unveils hedging strategies, and offers a plan to balance gains and safety in this AI-driven market. The AI Bubble: Signs of a Looming Pop The warning signals are flashing: Valuation Stretch: NVIDIA’s 35x forward P/E and Tesla’s 40x dwarf the S&P 500’s 21.4x, with AI index gains outpacing fundamentals. Market Sentiment: Posts found o

Last week, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (fear index) surged sharply, and gold prices kept pushing to new highs, yet the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ managed a solid 2.1% gain. The market was busy digesting a short-term pullback in non-profitable tech stocks (down 8% from Thursday to Friday, but still up a slim 0.5% for the week), while chasing assets with strong long-term AI narratives—like $Broadcom(AVGO)$ announcing a 10GW partnership and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) noting that "AI demand is stronger than three months ago," which propelled the semiconductor sector to its best weekly performance since late June.Behind this divergence, investors' real puzzle is: Will pullb

My Investing Muse (29Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Nearly 6% of Nestlé’s global workforce is disappearing. The world’s biggest food company is laying off 16,000 workers in the next 2 yrs... Here’s the breakdown: 12,000 white-collar jobs 4,000 roles cut in manufacturing + supply chain They say this is a shift to automation and shared services... it’s not quite what I am seeing being built up right now. - X user Amanda Goodall San Diego-based trucking company Epic Lightning Fast Service LLC plans to shut down all operations permanently on Oct. 31 and lay off all 116 of its workers, according to a WARN notice that the company filed with the State of California, FreightWaves reported. The Vero Beach, Florida-based airline Verijet had filed for bankruptcy after amassing over $38

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ $CME Bitcoin - main 2510(BTCmain)$ Everyone’s talking about “the mother of all bubbles.” The AI boom has turned once-skeptical investors into euphoric believers, with valuations for anything remotely tied to artificial intelligence soaring to nosebleed levels. Nvidia, the poster child of this mania, is now worth more than the GDP of most countries, and smaller AI-linked names — from chip startups to “AI-adjacent” software firms — have joined the party. But while everyone debates how big the AI bubble might grow, few are talking about how to hedge it — how to stay in for the euphoric upside without being vapor

Everyone’s talking about “the mother of all bubbles”… but few are talking about how to hedge it — without missing the final leg of the rally.You want to stay in for the bubble gains (who doesn’t?), but a smart investor knows to keep an escape pod ready. So how do you do it?1️⃣ Classic hedge: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ puts. The simplest play — long puts on market indexes like S&P 500. Tech-heavy exposure means you’re covered if the AI euphoria cracks. Costly, yes, but straightforward.2️⃣ Volatility bets: $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ calls. When panic hits, volatility spikes. VIX calls can explode in value during a crash — and they’re often cheaper than index options. The trick? Timing. VIX pe

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   💔 Why OpenAI and Microsoft Are in an “Open Relationship” Have you ever wondered — if $Microsoft(MSFT)$   is OpenAI’s largest shareholder and its biggest cloud partner, shouldn’t OpenAI just stick to Azure? Yet lately, OpenAI has been “seeing other people.” It’s signed multi-billion-dollar cloud contracts with Oracle and CoreWeave. It’s buying its own chips. It’s even building its own data centers. It’s as if a once-inseparable couple suddenly announced they’re entering an “open relationship.” And strangely enough, Microsoft — the long-standing “spouse” — is okay with it. So, what happened? According to The Information, cracks began to appear in what once looked

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$   Recently, I received a great question from a friendr: > “AI is everywhere now. From GPUs and memory chips to cloud computing and power utilities — and now you’re talking about copper. With so many related companies and industries, how can one person possibly invest in all of them?” This question perfectly captures the dilemma many investors face today. It reveals that deep sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) and choice anxiety that grips us whenever we’re confronted with a massive structural transformation. We’re afraid of missing the next Nvidia, the next Oracle, afraid that our portfolios aren’t “AI enough.” So we chase every hot theme, our portfolios become increasingly scattered and messy — and our returns, incr