To The Moon

Key Takeaways

• Tesla will report Q3 EPS on Wednesday night.

• The options market suggests an 8.5% move after EPS.

• Investors will focus on EV demand, the energy segment, & Optimus timeline.

Tesla Earnings Are Due Wednesday

Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ,the worldwide electric vehicle (EV) leader and a dynamic technology innovator, will report third-quarter 2025 earnings after the market close on Wednesday, October 22nd. Though Tesla has been one of the top-performing stocks since its IPO in July 2010 (with a 34,000% return), the stock has taken investors on a wild ride over the past few years. Namely, Tesla has had to weather new tariff policies, a slowing EV market, higher interest rates, and increased competition. Additionally, Tesla and its iconic but controversial CEO, Elon Musk, have faced intense political backlash from both sides of the political aisle. Despite its many challenges, TSLA shares are up a robust 93% over the past six months.

Tesla EPS Preview

Below are some key details to know ahead of Tesla’s earnings:

Tesla Consensus Analyst Estimates

My Consensus Estimates suggest tepid sales growth and negative EPS growth until 2026. Wall Street expects Q3 revenue of $26.45B (+5.05%), with EPS of $0.53 (-26.39%).

Tesla EPS Surprise History

Tesla has delivered spotty earnings results recently. Despite tempered Tesla analyst expectations, Tesla has missed expectations in six of the past ten quarters.

Meanwhile, Tesla has missed analyst expectations by an average of 3.65% over the past four quarters.

TSLA Expected Move

The options market implies a potential move of +/- $37.48 or an 8.53% implied move. Tesla has had an average move of +/- 10.53% over the past eight quarters. TSLA shares have been higher the day after EPS 50% of the time over that time.

TSLA Technical View

After breaking out from a low-level base structure in September, TSLA shares are coiling in a classic bull flag pattern. If Tesla exceeds expectations, the stock should make a run at its previous all-time high of $488. Should TSLA miss expectations, the stock is likely to test the confluence of the open price gap and rising 50-day moving average ~$400.

Tesla EPS: 3 Key Catalysts

Tesla’s post-earnings price action will likely be determined by the answer to three critical questions, including:

1.      Has Tesla’s Legacy EV Business Bottomed? Tesla recently produced and announced a record number of vehicle deliveries. However, investors will be listening closely to see what Elon Musk and his team have to say about forward expectations in the wake of the removal of federal EV tax credits, lower interest rates, and the new ‘Model Y’ sales performance.

2.      Will Energy Segment Growth Continue? In the absence of a growing EV business, Tesla Energy has been a bastion of growth. Last year, the segment grew at a robust 67%. Meanwhile, thus far in 2025, energy storage deployments have increased at a triple-digit pace. With the AI boom in full force, Tesla’s energy storage business should benefit as energy-hungry data centers require energy storage solutions like Tesla’s ‘Megapack.’

3.      Will Tesla Meet Timelines for FSD, Robotaxis, and Optimus? Elon Musk is well-known for his aggressive timelines for new products. However, if Musk can convince investors that future product roadmaps are still on track, investors will reward him.

Bottom Line

As Tesla prepares to report Q3 earnings, investors face a familiar mix of excitement and uncertainty. With the stock surging nearly 93% in the past six months, expectations are high – yet tempered by Tesla’s recent mixed track record.

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