To The Moon

$Ford(F)$ upcoming fiscal Q3 2025 earnings, scheduled for release after the market closes on Thursday, October 23, 2025.

Executive Summary: The "Push and Pull"

Investors will be watching a clear battle between strong commercial performance and significant financial headwinds. The core of the story is whether the booming Ford Pro (commercial) segment can generate enough profit to offset mounting losses in the Ford Model e (EV) division and cover rising costs from recalls and tariffs.

Recent Q3 sales data was strong, but analyst estimates for the quarter are down year-over-year, suggesting that these costs are expected to eat into the bottom line.

Analyst Consensus Estimates (Q3 2025)

Analysts are projecting a decline in both earnings and revenue compared to the same quarter last year.

Consensus EPS: $0.38 per share (down from $0.49 in Q3 2024)

Consensus Revenue: $42.26 billion (down from $43.8 billion in Q3 2024)

Summary of Ford's Q2 2025 Earnings

Ford's Q2 2025 results presented a stark contrast: the company achieved record-breaking revenue and beat analyst expectations on the top and bottom lines, yet it simultaneously issued a significant cut to its full-year profit forecast. This "beat and cut" scenario was driven by the overwhelming impact of external cost pressures, primarily new tariffs.

Key Q2 2025 Financial Metrics:

• Revenue: $50.2 billion (a company record, up 5% year-over-year and beating consensus estimates of ~$43-$45 billion).

• Adjusted EPS: $0.37 per share (beating the consensus estimate of ~$0.33 per share).

• Net Income (GAAP): A net loss of $36 million, which was attributed to special charges, including a $570 million charge for a fuel leak recall.

• Adjusted EBIT (Profit): $2.1 billion. This profit was achieved despite absorbing an $800 million adverse impact from tariffs during the quarter alone.

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $2.8 billion.

Segment Performance (The Ford+ Story):

The earnings report underscored the "Ford+" strategy, where the company's segments are performing in dramatically different ways:

• Ford Pro (Commercial): This remains the company's profit engine and "silver lining." It generated $2.3 billion in EBIT with a strong 12.3% margin. Its growth in high-margin software and services subscriptions (up 24% to 757,000) continues to validate this business model.

• Ford Blue (Traditional ICE & Hybrid): This segment was profitable but squeezed, earning $661 million in EBIT. While it gained market share from strong truck sales, its profits were down year-over-year, reflecting the impact of tariffs and recall costs.

• Ford Model e (Electric Vehicles): The EV division continued to post significant losses, reporting an EBIT loss of $1.3 billion. However, the company framed this positively, as revenue in the segment doubled to $2.4 billion, and the operating margin, while still deeply negative, showed improvement as production scaled.

Lesson Learnt from the Q2 2025 Guidance

The primary lesson from Ford's Q2 2025 guidance is that external, macroeconomic factors (specifically tariffs) can completely erase strong operational performance.

Ford's management was forced to cut its full-year profit forecast because of these external costs, not because its core business was failing. In fact, the underlying business (sales and cost-cutting) was performing ahead of plan.

The Guidance Cut:

• Previous Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBIT: $7.0 billion to $8.5 billion.

• New Full-Year 2025 Adjusted EBIT: $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion.

Analysis: The Key Takeaway

The "lesson learnt" is twofold:

1. Tariffs are the New Central Risk: The guidance cut was attributed almost entirely to a $2 billion net tariff headwind expected for the full year ($3 billion in gross impact, offset by $1 billion in cost-saving "recovery actions"). This new cost, which was $500 million more than previously anticipated, single-handedly caused the guidance reduction. For investors, this means that traditional metrics like vehicle sales and production costs are no longer enough; geopolitical and trade policy risk is now a primary driver of Ford's profitability.

2. The "Ford Pro" Thesis is Working (and Essential): The only reason Ford could absorb an $800 million quarterly tariff hit and a massive $1.3 billion loss in its EV division—and still post $2.1 billion in adjusted profit—was the incredible strength of Ford Pro. The commercial segment's $2.3 billion in profit effectively subsidized the entire EV strategy and covered the unexpected tariff costs. The lesson here is that Ford's investment case is entirely dependent on Ford Pro's ability to remain a high-margin cash-generation machine to fund the company's future and weather external storms.

In short, the Q2 2025 report showed that while Ford's operational plan (strong Pro, scaling EVs) is on track, its financial results are currently captive to macroeconomic headwinds that are outside of its direct control.

Key Metrics and Segments to Watch

Ford's "Ford+" reorganization plan split the company into distinct segments. The difference in performance between these divisions is the most critical part of the earnings report.

1. Ford Pro (Commercial)

This segment, which includes commercial trucks, vans, and services, is Ford's profit engine.

What to Watch: Look for continued high-margin growth. This segment is expected to be the star of the report.

Analyst Estimates:

• Revenue: ~$16.4 - $17.7 billion

• Adjusted EBIT (Profit): ~$2.0 billion (up from ~$1.8 billion last year)

2. Ford Model e (Electric Vehicles)

This is the high-growth, high-spend segment. Investors are focused on the path to profitability, but for now, the losses are significant.

What to Watch: Revenue growth is a given, but watch the EBIT loss. Any sign of narrowing losses (or worse-than-expected losses) will be a major catalyst.

Analyst Estimates:

• Revenue: ~$2.4 - $2.7 billion (a significant jump of ~100%+ year-over-year)

• Wholesale Units: ~56,000 (up from ~32,000 last year)

• EBIT (Profit/Loss): This is the key. While not always explicitly forecasted, this segment has been losing billions, and analysts will be watching this number closely.

3. Ford Blue (Traditional ICE & Hybrids)

This is the legacy business (F-150, Bronco, etc.) that funds the EV transition. Hybrids are a particular bright spot here.

What to Watch: Sales for this segment are expected to be down. The key is EBIT margin. Can Ford maintain profitability on its most popular vehicles amid a cooling market?

Analyst Estimates:

• Revenue: ~$23.5 - $24.1 billion (down from ~$26.2 billion last year)

• Adjusted EBIT (Profit): ~$1.1 billion (a significant drop from ~$1.6 billion last year)

4. Major Headwinds (Costs)

These factors will likely be discussed on the earnings call and will impact guidance.

Recall Costs: Ford has been the most-recalled automaker. Listen for any update on the financial impact of these recalls on the quarterly results and future guidance.

Tariff Costs: Management has previously guided to a potential $3 billion impact from tariffs in 2025. Any update on this figure is crucial.

Supplier Issues: A recent fire at a key aluminum supplier (Novelis) was reported to be impacting production of the high-margin Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator. Expect a question on this and its impact on Q4.

Ford (F) Price Target

Based on 23 analysts from Tiger Brokers offering 12 month price targets for Ford Motor in the last 3 months. The average price target is $11.44 with a high forecast of $16.32 and a low forecast of $9.25. The average price target represents a -8.92% change from the last price of $12.56.

Potential Short-Term Trading Post-Earnings

Historical data on Ford's stock reaction to earnings shows a mixed but volatile pattern.

High Volatility: Over the last five years, the stock's one-day reaction to earnings has been positive 50% of the time and negative 50% of the time.

Negative Skew: The moves to the downside have been more severe than the moves to the upside. The median negative 1-day return has been approximately -8.0%, while the median positive 1-day return has been only +2.6%.

The implied volatility skew shows the market's bias for pricing in volatility risk to the option premium of downside puts and upside calls. If the implied volatility for downside puts is increasing relative to upside calls, then that suggests the market is pricing in a larger fear to a downside move.

The current skew indicator is showing slightly bearish.

Current Analyst Stance: The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is currently -4.75%, which, when combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), does not statistically predict an earnings beat.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

We saw a very nice recovery for Ford, as it has make a nice price surge after trading rather range-bound, so does it mean that investors are pretty positive on its Ford Pro’s margins and also Ford could provide an improvement in narrowing its EV losses.

So we could be going for a “beat-and-raise” scenario, if we could see a significant Ford Pro’s margins, and also the EV losses would be reported to be narrowed.

What This Means for Traders:

The "Beat vs. Raise" Is Secondary: The headline EPS and revenue numbers matter less than the quality of those numbers. The market will react to the segment profit mix and forward-looking guidance.

Bearish Scenario: If Ford Pro profits disappoint OR Model e losses are wider than expected, the stock could react negatively. Any significant cut to full-year guidance due to recalls or supplier issues would also be a major negative catalyst.

Bullish Scenario: A surprise in Ford Pro's margins (even higher than expected) or a significant narrowing of EV losses could send the stock up. Positive commentary on hybrid sales and strong forward guidance could also fuel a rally.

Given the negative earnings ESP and the significant known headwinds, the setup appears challenging. However, Ford's strong Q3 sales report (released October 1st) creates a bullish counter-signal. This conflicting data points to a high likelihood of a significant post-earnings move as the market decides which narrative to follow.

Summary

Ford is scheduled to report its Q3 2025 earnings on Thursday, October 23, 2025. Analyst consensus estimates project a year-over-year decline, with an expected EPS of approximately $0.38 and revenue around $42.26 billion.

The report will be a "push and pull" story. Investors are laser-focused on whether the highly profitable Ford Pro (commercial) segment can generate enough cash to offset continued, significant losses in the Ford Model e (EV) division and declining profits in the Ford Blue (traditional) segment.

Key headwinds to watch are the financial impacts of tariffs, mounting recall costs, and potential supplier disruptions, which are expected to pressure the bottom line despite strong Q3 sales.

The stock reaction is expected to be volatile. A positive surprise hinges on Ford Pro's margins and any narrowing of EV losses. A miss will likely be blamed on cost headwinds, which could lead to a significant negative reaction, as historical data shows Ford's post-earnings drops have often been larger than its gains.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Ford would be able to improve the Ford Pro’s margins and also narrowed its EV losses.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.