To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟Pop Mart $POP MART(09992)$  $POP MART HK SDR 20to1(HPPD.SI)$ has dropped 18.7% last week even though its overall revenue for Q3 25 increased by 245% to 250% YoY.  Despite these strong growth figures, the announcement was followed by a sharp price drop as analysts expressed caution over the stock's high valuation and potential slowdown in growth.

Is Pop Mart still a Buy or Bye?

Reasons to consider buying Pop Mart :

Strong growth momentum :  Pop Mart has demonstrated explosive revenue growth, particularly in 2025.  This is driven by the global popularity of IPs like Labubu and its strategic expansion into international markets.

Global expansion :  Pop Mart is aggressively opening new stores worldwide with international sales contributing a larger share of revenue.  Its overseas performance has exceeded expectations, suggesting a strong foothold in new markets.

IP Diversification : While Labubu was a major driver, Pop Mart is actively developing and promoting other IPs and expanding into new categories like fashion jewellery and theme parks.  This could reduce its reliance on a single IP.

DCF based Undervaluation: Some Discounted Cash Flow analyses suggest the stock is undervalued, indicating potential upside based on projected future cash flows. 

Risks that suggest caution:

High P/E ratio: Pop Mart ratio of 41.54 is significantly higher than industry averages, suggesting it is priced for exceptional growth.  If growth slows, the valuation could contract.

Reliance on Trends :  Pop Mart's business is heavily dependent on creating and sustaining viral IP trends.  There is a risk that current popular IPs could fade, similar to past collectible fads.

Market Saturation Concerns : After a period of explosive growth, analysts expect Pop Mart's revenue growth to slow from 2026 onwards due to a higher base, raising concerns among some investors.

Competition and Regulatory Risks : Pop Mart faces increasing competition and potential scrutiny over its blind box model, which could impact future growth and market perception.

Lack of safety margins : At its current valuation, any execution missteps or growth slowdown could lead to a significant price drop, offering little margin of safety for investors.

Analysts Expectations :

Morningstar has just raised Pop Mart fair value target to HKD 280, up from HKD 240, citing stronger long term revenue assumptions. 

UBS has raised its target price for Pop Mart to HKD 435, maintaining a Buy rating.  The upgrade was driven by Pop Mart's impressive Q3 25 revenue, which exceeded expectations, particularly in overseas markets.

Goldman Sachs has maintained a Neutral rating with a Target Price of HKD 350 in October 2025.  While acknowledging the strong Q3 25 revenue, the firm maintained a more cautious outlook on Pop Mart.

My  Personal Take on Pop Mart 

It is easy to dismiss Pop Mart as just a toy company.  Blind boxes, cute characters and queues of teenagers.  However beneath the surface lies something deeper.  Pop Mart has a business model built on emotional resonance, IP mastery and global storytelling. 

Pop Mart does not just sell toys.  It sells surprise.  It sells identity.  It sells the feeling of being seen - in a Skullpanda's melancholy, a Labubu's mischief or a Dimoo's dreaminess.

And it is working.  Revenue up 250%.  Overseas sales up 370%.  This isn't just expansion.  It is emotional globalisation.

At the last closing price of HKD 230.40, I see a dip, not a decline.  A pause before the next wave.   If it hits HKD 200 or below I believe it is a good buy, definitely not a good bye.

Pop Mart is here to stay.  It isn't just a stock.  It is a symbol of joy, conviction and the power of emotive marketing.

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