To The Moon

The Fed’s two-day meeting wraps up tomorrow night (Oct 29) — and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Markets are betting big on a rate cut: CME data now shows a 98% chance of a 25bp move, signaling that the era of “higher for longer” may finally be ending.

Market expectations ahead of the Oct 29 Fed meeting

Yet behind this week’s policy suspense lies a much bigger story — Trump’s quiet campaign to reshape the Fed itself.

His five potential Fed Chair nominees are all singing the same tune: keep the easing going.

The race to replace Jerome Powell is heating up — and it’s no longer just about who will lead the Federal Reserve. It’s about how far Donald Trump is willing to go to reshape America’s central bank in his own image.

On Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed the final five contenders for Fed Chair: Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder.

Each brings an impressive résumé, but behind the credentials lies a deeper political fault line — Trump’s push for a more compliant, rate-cut-friendly Fed.

🧩 The Candidates at a Glance

Fed Chair Race: 5 Candidates

• Kevin Hassett — Trump’s long-time ally and chief economic advisor, known for echoing Trump’s call for rapid rate cuts. He’s accused the Fed of “falling behind the curve” and eroding its credibility.

• Christopher Waller — A current Fed governor who accurately foresaw labor market weakness early this year. Pragmatic but cautious — he supports easing but values credibility over politics.

• Michelle Bowman — The current Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, another Trump appointee. A fifth-generation banker, she has championed lighter regulation for banks and was one of the first officials to call for rate cuts this summer.

• Kevin Warsh — A former Fed governor and Wall Street insider, once a frontrunner for the chair in 2017. Recently, he’s turned from hawk to dove, arguing for a smaller balance sheet and more policy flexibility.

• Rick Rieder — A veteran BlackRock executive who favors bold monetary action. He’s argued that the Fed should “think bigger,” even calling for a 50-basis-point cut when the Fed opted for 25.

🏛️ Trump’s Power Play: The Real Story Behind the Shortlist

Donald John Trump

Make no mistake — this isn’t a neutral hiring process. Trump’s fingerprints are all over it. With Powell’s term ending next May, Trump is seizing his chance to reclaim control of the institution that once defied him.

From his criticism of Powell’s “slow” rate cuts to his behind-the-scenes influence on nominees, Trump’s message is clear: the next Fed must align with his economic agenda — faster easing, looser policy, and less “academic hesitation.”

Sources close to his team say Trump wants a Fed that “supports growth,” especially heading into the election cycle. Translation: a board majority ready to cut rates aggressively and boost liquidity — even at the risk of stoking inflation.

This five-person shortlist is just the latest move in a broader reshuffle. Three of the candidates — Waller, Bowman, and Hassett — already share Trump’s worldview: skeptical of regulation, wary of overreliance on data, and convinced that lower rates equal stronger America.

💰 What It Means for Investors

For traders and long-term investors alike, this isn’t just about who gets the job — it’s about the trajectory of U.S. monetary policy.

If Trump’s camp prevails, markets could price in deeper, faster rate cuts as soon as next year. That could ignite a short-term rally in tech, gold, and high-beta growth stocks, while boosting liquidity-sensitive Hong Kong and emerging-market equities. gold $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$

But history offers a cautionary echo: when political pressure guided Fed policy in the 1970s, short-term sugar highs gave way to runaway inflation. Bond yields could surge again, and real returns might evaporate.

The bond market is already flashing warning signs — yield curve re-steepening, rising inflation breakevens — hinting that investors aren’t fully buying the “soft landing” narrative.

⚖️ The Takeaway

Trump’s reshaped Fed could mark the end of Powell’s data-driven era and the start of a politically charged one — where rate cuts become a campaign tool, not a policy choice.

👉 The key question now: Do you ride the rate-cut wave — or hedge for a policy hangover? Your move, investors.